Flat tomorrow morning, with a rapid increase in new S'ly swell through the afternoon though with strong to gale-force SW winds. Reinforcing large S'ly swells Sunday with average winds, similar Monday. Better winds and a better SE swell Tuesday morning.
Primary tabs
There's been a big swing in the model guidance for the weekend.
One thing is for certain this weekend: it’s going to be windy, and pretty chilly.
We’re essentially looking at a building south swell through Saturday.
This will generate a poorly aligned though somewhat punchy round of south swell for Southern NSW, arriving in two stages - the first sometime later Saturday morning across Sydney’s south facing beaches, with a second swell pushing through on Sunday.
Even though there are still strong sets showing across Sydney beaches this afternoon, I’m going to pare down my expectations for Tuesda
There’s been an upgrade in strength and a forward time-shift with regards to the developing low pressure system in the north-eastern Tasman Sea.
Our weekend’s waves will be a combination of easing S’ly swell from Friday, and a building spread of mid-range SE swell from a strengthening ridge through the Tasman.
The synoptic charts shows a broad, unstable trough lying off the East Coast.
Since last Monday I’ve been discussing the possibility of an ‘unstable troughy pattern across the eastern Tasman Sea next week’, which could lead to a ‘sizeable’, ‘short range E’ly through NE swell’.