Low pressure formation looks likely, possibly a strong cut-off low moving into the Tasman Thurs and offering an initial spike in S swell Thurs before better angled S/SE swell into the weekend if the low hangs around in the south-east Tasman near the South Island. 

Unfortunately, compared to Fridays expectations the interplay between these two systems is weaker, with a more constrained fetch of lower windspeeds that drifts away quicker than modelled on Friday. That will result in smaller east quadrant swell this week, relative to Fridays expectations.

Not much short term gain from this system but there is broad model agreement we’ll see this low deepen and develop into a more powerful system mid/late next week as it drifts into a position north of the North Island.

We’ll see some nice strong S pulses over the weekend as multiple fetches operate on an active sea state. Nothing huge but of winter calibre.