Early Forecast: Lexus Pipe Pro
Lexus Pipe Pro
January 29th - February 10th, 2024
The North Pacific has really come to life since the start of the New Year, with multiple large to extra-large swells impacting not just the Hawaiian Island chain but also the Californian coast and large swathes of the South Pacific basin too.
The weekend just gone saw yet another extra-large swell on the Hawaiian North Shore though southerly winds largely favoured the breaks west of Haleiwa.
The good news is that, with just over a week until the 2024 Championship Tour season begins, there's more swell activity on the way, however the bad news is the wind will continue to be an issue thanks to the close proximity of the swell-generating storms.
It'll be the WSL's first contest with a flash new sponsor, Carissa Moore's last contest before entering quasi-retirement, while on the men's side we welcome hard-charging rookies Jacob Willcox and Cole Houshmand - two stocky goofyfoots who can displace buckets of water.
First reserve Ramzi Boukhiam could also be a chance, especially if Pipeline continues to claim scalps as it's done all season.
So, looking at the early forecast and the current setup through the North Pacific sees a large, low pressure gyre sitting north-west of the islands, with embedded storms rotating anti-clockwise within, generating continuous pulses of moderate to large W/NW swell.
As mentioned above, the close proximity of the storms is bringing less favourable bouts of kona winds - south to south-west - instead of the usual easterly trades. Southerly winds can be great for Pipeline but start to add ridges and bumps when gaining strength and/or shifting more south-west, blowing up the face of Backdoor and crumbling Pipe proper.
The large gyre is expected to shift slowly east through the lead-up to the start of the waiting period (Monday the 29th) while maintaining its strength. This looks to generate a significant mid-period NW swell for opening days (10ft+), with a possible larger swell to follow later in the event window.
Once again, the only issue are the local winds with no reliable trade setup on the cards, though local morning offshore winds should create clean conditions, becoming more lumpy and raw through the afternoons.
So in short, we're looking at a very active period of surf, but absent of the classic ENE trades, meaning if they wish to get underway the organisers will have to pick the windows of cleaner conditions between onshore blows. Could be a lot of 'on hold' calls during the first half of the waiting period.
Comments
Kona winds.....fook.....
Like Craig said- straight S'ly can be good, especially for Backdoor.
Anything too strong or with a W'ly bias gets very bumpy, very quickly.
Is Slater fit?
seen footage of him out there...looks great!
Alternative headline: Wozzles’ Karmic Comeuppance Continues
Is there still a limited number of competition days they can run during the window?
That second week looks droolworthy though if it comes to fruition. Huge period though....with size...overpower Pipe?
Skip to 11.20 of the vid below for Italo's packing a heaver.
I'll b putting a fiver on him if the forecast is for big.
Thanks for sharing... Gotta love Jordy's apprasal... on the money... great insights all round.
Fantasy picks: wildcards; Jerry Lopez v's Moana J Wong....
compare (above) cropped clips from 7m 25s
Does anyone know if there’s a Pipe Trials before the main event to get the wildcards sorted ??
No trials event, the wildcards are already sorted. Shion Crawford and Jackson Bunch are the men's wildcards, promoted cos of their positions on the Challenger Series (highest-placed Hawaiians).
And in a typical Wozzle move, the criteria is different from men's to women. If they were the same, the wildcard would be Zoe McDougall, who's the highest Hawaiian woman. Instead, the Woz has chosen Moana Jones Wong, whose Pipe credentials can't be argued, however it shows the arbitrary nature of the Woz popularity contest.
Ha. Kidding. All fair eh :/
The last few years they seem to have moved away from going on and off hold, and they are always trying to run entire rounds in one go. Think its part of the more commercial approach, but means there is likely to be some crappy heats if the winds are variable.
Part of the reason for running full rounds is, the permits are only valid for a certain number of days ( I’m not certain of exact number) and they don’t want to use those days running for only a couple of hours, therefore running out of time to finish the comp.
As in even if there is a ten day waiting period, they are only allowed to use for example seven days?
That's surprising
That’s exactly how it works and I’ve got an idea it’s only 6 days out of the waiting period but I’m not sure exactly.
Also, if you start the days heats and only run for 2hours before the wind comes up, that’s a days permit used, so they have to knock out as many heats as the can when the day gets called on.
Plus 4pm is finish time each day regardless how good it might be.
to add to the conundrum .... only one surf contest is allowed on that day in Oahu all shores included.
they can't run on public holidays either. Learnt that through the coconut wireless....
4 people needed in each heat was a requirement also
Rambo into the draw replacing the injured Jwow, who's out for two events.
WSL fantasy pic still hasn’t listed the wildcards or the heat draw.
Surfival league mate, shits all over WSL fantasy, check it out
https://www.surfival-league.com/
Caity getting some backdoor practice
i know who's not going in my fantasy team now
haha fair enough @burleigh but damn, took some guts to throw herself over the ledge of that one in the first place. Most wouldn't. Practice and persistence go a long way in those kind of waves. Maybe next year might be worth popping in your fantasy pics.
fearless, new waves.... Caity & Molly
Geez Burlz, this comment won't age too well hahaha
Hahahaha
Haha! Classic :-)
@burleigh wrote "3 girls charged HARD. They are the future of surfing. The ones that didn't need to re-evaluate their careers IMO.
Pickles has saved female pro surfing.
Amazing viewing today. How good is pro-surfing in pumping waves."
Still punching down on female surfers as a whole @burleigh.
Seems you just can't help yourself.
You have a history of berating women until they prove their worth to your standards.
Pickles charging Pipe didn't happen in a vacuum. All the girls are learning. All the girls are being inspired. Rising tides lift all ships and all that.
Bigger picture Burleigh.
Stop categorizing women as the other.
We're all people.
None of my business sr but I reckon you’re off the mark there.
This is from Steve in his write up today after the contest -
“ Only for some. For others, days like these are a wide awake nightmare. Of the eight women's Quarter-Finalists, three wanted a piece of it: Pickles, Caity, and Bettylou. The rest dodged and fidgeted, handed over priority, and pretended to paddle...and that is no disrespect to them. They were there as artifacts of holding heats in toy waves where tuberiding did not matter.”
are you going to accuse Steve of punching down and berating women?
His opinion wasn’t much different to burleighs. And spot on imo.
Reckon you’re being a bit harsh there.
Unless I’ve missed previous to and fro’s between you two on this topic and if that’s the case I’ll crawl back under my rock!
Fair enough but i recall a to and fro over a similar thing way back. Anyway cheers for the different point of view.
I'll pull my head in now because its a reasonable point.
Pumping beachies on live (sorry didn't know where to post this). Rip Curl Challenge La Nord Hossegor.
https://www.youtube.com/live/9o8Pkq6H3B4
(Delete or whatever, chucked it in the nazare live chat. Also, come on winter)
Love your work @sprout. Cheers!!
Damn they're surfing some awefully large surfboards for the size of the waves. Guessing it's to deal with the current.
geezus, they seem way over gunned.
How's the french and English commentary interchanging?
It's hard for a non French speaking Aussie to keep up!!
Confusing the crap outta me!
But cool. Gives it that French feel. Geez La Nord has grown!! Thought it was Biarittz when they showed the shot of the town.
That green board looks like the perfect size. Maybe a 7'2, 7'4.
One more thing and i'll give this thread back.....how nice are those offshore French mornings. Surreal to experience. The smells off the land of the pastries, coffee.. food and pine trees...flowers. It's an epic place. Miss it.
Never been, sounds divine!! (And yes some big boards!)
How was the old school nose flip of the board on the beach?
Kelly vs Griff (from 39s)
thought kellys board looked slow
The large W/NW swell for the second day of the waiting period (30th) is still on track though winds look dicey, possibly swinging N'ly in the wake of SW winds on the opening day.
Day three will see easing surf with E/NE trades and cleaner conditions, probably dropping from the 6-8ft range.
There's still plenty of follow-up activity, with a possible XL swell in the mix.
According to WSL Fantasy teams Connor O'Leary is representing Japan.
Who knew Cronulla was in Japan?
There’s been quite a lot of news about that.
Not new.
So Japan will have Kanoa and Connor, who both grew up outside Japan represent them at the Olympics.
I’m thinking more sponsorship money on offer than what is available in USA and AUS. They would be Japan’s 1 and 2 ranked surfers, bigger fish in a smaller pond and all.
Connor could be a roughy for a medal.
Japnulla Connor new club ..
Just watching x games live on YouTube. When I first joined watching numbers were about 7k…wouldn’t WSL love those numbers.
I am pretty excited for the new season to start. It going to be good watching the men. No Carissa or Steph will bring the skill level down a bit or the young guns will step up? Will be interesting to watch.
14k now watching women’s half pipe.
WSL green with envy.
Ouch!
Where's the official FC?
I'll have an update today but to push a quick video from JJ which doesn't really give any insight is really surprising.
I've noticed the wsl forecasts in text format have dropped off during the last year or two.
I've found the post show is the best place to get their forecast. And I'm guessing the dawn patrol show which they used to run every day but now only seem to run on day 1 of the waiting period.
This is under the "forecast" tab on the WSL website:
https://www.worldsurfleague.com/posts/525298/official-surfline-forecast-...
Pretty clear forecast.
But.. that's not from a forecaster. That's just a bunch of surfers reading the auto-cue.
Isn't it a surfline forecast?
Sure, the information is provided by Surfline, but it's being communicated by non-forecasters.
Flick mentioning "You can see the big red blob on the screen" (as a graphic of a big red blog shows on the screen) isn't very illuminating. And then Joe saying "Wednesday looks like a slam dunk, but we'll see how it goes day by day".. it's just stock standard car park banter.
L O L.........
Bahahaaaaaaaaaaas
So the best surfer in the world is forecasting his home break to be "either really, really good, or really horrible".
Not keen on fence sitting. TBH.
They put one out from Kelly too.
He seems more confident, but I agree, it's a bit bizarre.