Billabong Pipe Masters Forecast Update

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Dispatch

Strong tradewinds and unfavourable northerly swells have resulted in a few lay days for the Billabong Pipe Masters, but fret not, we've got better days to come as the trades slowly weaken and a series of long-period groundswells fill in.

Tomorrow will be a low point in swell, likely resulting in another lay day, but come Wednesday a moderate-sized long-period NW groundswell is due to fill in.

The swell will be inconsistent due to being generated by a storm near the distant the Kamchatka Peninsula and Aleutian Islands.

A building trend is expected all day, with sets reaching 6ft+ by dark Wednesday with gusty E/NE trades, easing back quickly to 4-6ft Thursday morning. This will provide good enough waves to get the trials out of the way.

Friday and Saturday look generally small with a mid-period NW swell offering surf to 3-5ft at its peak Friday, fading Saturday.

Later in the waiting period we've got back to back storms forecast to develop in Hawaii's swell window. The first storm will form south-east of the Kamchatka Peninsula with a burst of severe-gale westerly winds through the north-western swell window. The low will then broaden and strengthen north of the islands, producing an additional northerly component to the swell.

The swell should fill in on Sunday and provide 6-8ft+ sets across Pipe with weak E/SE trades and clean conditions, possibly slightly bumpy into the afternoon.

A secondary and stronger low is due to develop on the back of the initial storm, projecting a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force north-west winds through Hawaii's northern swell window, producing a large northerly groundswell for Tuesday that looks to come in around 10ft+ on the sets. Winds may become an issue though, tending back to the north-northeast, though we'll continue to watch developments closely.

North Shore 16 Day Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Comments

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Tuesday, 11 Dec 2018 at 6:41pm

maybe finish on a bang not a wimper

simba

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 11 Dec 2018 at 8:35pm

Craig, just making sure you are referencing Hawaiian-Aleutian Standard time here?

So Sunday there = Mon here etc etc.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 11 Dec 2018 at 9:06pm

Yep. 

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 12 Dec 2018 at 8:20am

Who loves an upgrade!

Looks like both storms are going to be stronger now, with Sunday's swell looking more in the 8-10ft range, while Tuesday's in the oversized 15ft range, easing slowly through Wednesday and Thursday (the last day of the waiting period).

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Wednesday, 12 Dec 2018 at 9:39am

I do - shouldn't have been so pessimistic :-)

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko commented Wednesday, 12 Dec 2018 at 8:29am

mavericks is going to be gi-normous - and anything else on the west coast

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 12 Dec 2018 at 8:30am

Yep, back to back XXL swells.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 12 Dec 2018 at 12:56pm

My thoughts are..

Get the trials done Wednesday (Thursday our time) and then try get a fair bit of Rd 1 done Thursday morning with overlapping heats and the easing swell.

Then lay day Fri/Sat and try and run and finish the comp Sunday/Monday as the poor winds and XL swell for Tue/Wed will see a it a no go at Pipe.

Last day of the period also looks dicey with a large easing N swell and NE winds isn't great.

dannyz's picture
dannyz's picture
dannyz commented Wednesday, 12 Dec 2018 at 5:27pm

yewww thanks Craig

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 13 Dec 2018 at 1:58pm

And more upgrades!

Sunday looks maxing now and they might have to wait for the arvo to start (if at all), pumping Monday.

With tomorrow marginal and Friday/Saturday poor, we may be pushed into running on the last day of the waiting period which is looking good to great but heavy for Backdoor with clean easing 10ft+ surf from the north!

We're ending with a bang!

Reefeater's picture
Reefeater's picture
Reefeater commented Friday, 14 Dec 2018 at 6:36am

Noticed Surfline has the last couple of days winds as a right off and onshore.....update Craig ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 14 Dec 2018 at 7:08am

Tuesday/Wednesday yes, but Thursday is still looking the goods.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 14 Dec 2018 at 12:56pm

A little bird told me that they're pretty keen to finish the contest Sunday/Monday.

That means substandard surf again tomorrow, but great viewing Sunday/Monday with the easing XL swell.

Bring it on!

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Friday, 14 Dec 2018 at 1:43pm

So likely Rd 2 only tomorrow Craig? No overlapping heats?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 14 Dec 2018 at 1:44pm

Yeah not sure on those specifics. Likely.