The Eddie gets the green light

Stu Nettle
Swellnet Dispatch

quiksilver_eddie_aikau_2015.jpgFor the third week in a row a powerful XXL swell is bearing down on the Hawaiian islands. For the first two swells the organisers of the Eddie Aikau Invitational passed on the opportunity to run the competition and the baton passed by default to Peahi on Maui.

Their decisions attracted criticism as each swell met the Eddie threshold yet they remained steadfast: the timing of the swells, they claimed, wasn't conducive to an eight hour competition.

The third swell, currently being formed in the North Pacific, is due to hit on Wednesday Hawaiian time and in the organisers favour it will peak in the morning hours just after sunrise. In response, they've just pressed the green light for the '15/'16 Eddie Aikau, the first time it's run since 2009/2010 when Greg Long won.

Meanwhile, Kelly Slater has offered up his spot in the Eddie - a comp he won in 2002 - to Hawaiian great, Tony Moniz. In an Instagram post Slater gave thanks to Tammy Moniz, wife of Tony then said: "I'm happy to give my spot up to @tonymoniz this week if he wants to go charge a few!?"

So set the alarm early, shuffle your diary, and get set for a great day webcast watching.

The 2015/2016 Eddie invitees:
Aaron Gold, Albee Layer, Bruce Irons, Clyde Aikau, Dave Wassel, Garrett McNamara, Grant Baker, Greg Long, Ian Walsh, Jamie Mitchell, Jamie O’Brien, Jeremy Flores, John John Florence, Kala Alexander, Kelly Slater, Kohl Christensen, Makua Rothman, Mark Healey, Nathan Fletcher, Noah Johnson, Peter Mel, Ramon Navarro, Reef McIntosh, Ross Clarke-Jones, Shane Dorian, Sunny Garcia, Takayuki Wakita, Tom Carroll

Official alternates (in seeding order):
Mason Ho (Aikau Pick), Danilo Couto, Mark Matthews, Koa Rothman, Ben Wilkinson, Jamie Sterling, Billy Kemper, Shawn Dollar, Carlos Burle, Kealii Mamala, Gabriel Villaran, Michael Ho, Kai Lenny, Kahea Hart, Nathan Florence, Damien Hobgood, Kalani Chapman, Ryan Hipwood, Danny Fuller, Nic Lamb, Anthony Tashnick, Rusty Long, Derek Dunfee and Brock Little

Comments

Channel bottoms's picture
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Channel bottoms commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 8:12am

So what are the size and period forecasts?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 8:15am

You can see them here, CB

https://www.swellnet.com/reports/hawaii/oahu/north-shore/forecast

Current model forecasts have a 6pm peak of 6.1m (20ft) @ 17.6 seconds from the N/NW. Leading edge through at 12am with 21.9 seconds from the N/NW.

With the extra northerly component in the swell direction, Jaws is going to be enormous. Again.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 8:20am

Jamie Sterling (5th Alternate) Facebook'd this interesting confirmation email from the contest organisers this morning:

Organisers "are prepared to condense the event into a modified format to maximise the window of swell".

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 9:09am

The swellnet forecast has the peak at mid day not to mention more appropriate 17 sec in the arvo . Is the morn really going to be good ? How about kai lenny takes someones spot ? Hes in form but are all the guys who are 0n the list ?

sharkman's picture
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sharkman commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 9:17am

Isn't Tom Carroll out with a knee in jury?

x

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 9:47am

Nah, far as I know Tom is winging his way there now.

mick-free's picture
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mick-free commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 9:54am

Faaark Jamie Sterling must be feeling gutted former quiksilver rider big wave world champ 2010...misses out when comp is on.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 10:30am

For me I feel the early morning the swell will be in the 15ft+ range, kicking strongly above that 20ft range by mid-morning.

Also I think the initial longest-period energy will be from the NW, tending more N/NW through the day and I'd be expecting one or two close-out sets, especially into the afternoon.

Be a great days viewing!

radiationrules's picture
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radiationrules commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 11:05am

what's the best site to watch it on? (with the least amount of ad's)

mick-free's picture
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mick-free commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 11:19am

Surely its on Fox Sports

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 11:39am

Looks like it'll be on the WSL website (it's not a WSL event, but they have been pushing it).

http://www.worldsurfleague.com/events/2015/spec/1182/quiksilver-in-memor...

Baconeater's picture
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Baconeater commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 12:14pm

"(it's not a WSL event, but they have been pushing it" - understatement of the year there Ben.....

Shatner'sBassoon's picture
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Shatner'sBassoon commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 12:35pm

Brock Little's an alternate?

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 1:13pm

He's dealing with the Big C at the moment so unlikely he will take part IMO

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 12:57pm

Tom's in.

"As invitees we are called to meet and be ready at Waimea Bay early morning Wednesday 10 January Hawaii time for #eddieaikau2016 let's pray she GOES!! #mothernature can have a helluva #senseofhumour #thebaycallstheday Storm looks solid enough 25"

https://www.instagram.com/p/BBjBJa8Q_76/

loofy's picture
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loofy commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 1:16pm

Tom might do ok, dropping in at the Eddie isn't frowned upon!

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 1:34pm

Hope they called this swell correctly it's intriguing & the guys must be serious experts with bay surf ?

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 1:47pm

Sounding a bit doubtful Camel?

caml's picture
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caml commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 10:47am

caml wrote: Hope they called this swell correctly it's intriguing & the guys must be serious experts with bay surf ?

There were others questioning the forecast . SWellnet was the only site who I saw that indicated a slow start

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 1:54pm

No stu I just am intrigued by the way its called on . Can we discuss what this swell will do its supposed to be a perfect size

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 2:14pm

Looks better now, than it did. Slower moving than the last giant surf event.
Looked to be too distant but the head of the fetch now gets within 1000nm......that seems to be the magic figure.
What do you reckon Caml?

roubydouby's picture
roubydouby's picture
roubydouby commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 2:38pm

Slater is out... heading over to jaws maybe?

Results may vary.

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 2:42pm

Where'd you find that out RD?

roubydouby's picture
roubydouby's picture
roubydouby commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 8:34pm

Nah, im tripping. I misread "Slater offers up his spot" as Slater is out.
That's how rumours start.

*Instigates self-flagellation*

Results may vary.

mick-free's picture
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mick-free commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 2:51pm

He's got the Pebbly Beach pro am....

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

caml's picture
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caml commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 6:03pm

Looks good but I am inexperienced with bay swells . Bigger period in morn and in the arvo better again as the energy drops & the bay will receive more size

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 7:39pm

I'm surprised and a little disappointed, I saw Kelly had offered up his spot this morning on Instagram but kinda thought it was a joke. Is this a quicksilver related thing? I doubt he'd miss the most prestigious surfing competition for anything. Anything.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 10:13pm

Absolutely booming waimea !

caml's picture
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caml commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 10:26pm

Why has swellnet only forecast 2.9 @ 20 for the 6am forecast for Waimea ? A bit inco if thats the case for a few hre perhaps . But then midday its redic ! Huge again

caml's picture
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caml commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 10:32pm

Good news is that another forecast site has it already heavily arrived at 6am
Thats reassuring

southey's picture
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southey commented Tuesday, 9 Feb 2016 at 11:13pm

I'm more interested in who pulls out or doesn't accept a run at Waimea in favour of Maui . This could be bigger wave faces and easier to paddle at Peahi than the first ( contest ) swell . Be also interesting to see if they allow some towing for an hour or two earlier in the higher period waves .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 9:16am

Should be good viewing especially around the time most people are getting up/going to work here.

The swell seems very similar to the 2009 swell with maybe a slightly shorter period? Craig, how much of a difference to peak wave period can say 500nm make over open ocean, which seems to be roughly the case here? (comparing the 2009 swell with the forecast swell for 2016)

Clyde Aikau must be no spring chicken these days, hope he goes well.

1173

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 10:07am

Peak wave period is purely relative to the core wind strengths.

The core wind speeds in this low were up around 50-55kts with a couple of 60kt barbs.

The extra distance the swell has to travel will allow the swell to draw out more towards those longer-periods rather than if it were close-range and still growing past the islands (swells take a distance to reach their full period potential).

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 10:15am

Cheers.

So are we looking at a similar size storm to 2009 albeit tracking a little closer to Hawaii?

Also, are ENE winds the optimum for Waimea?

I'm psyched to watch this contest.

1173

abc-od's picture
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abc-od commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 10:16am

Craig wrote:

Peak wave period is purely relative to the core wind strengths.

But then you say the extra distance a swell travels also effects the period. "The extra distance the swell has to travel will allow the swell to draw out more towards those longer-periods"

So it isn't only winds that influence peak wave peirod???

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 10:22am

It is, but there is also I guess the distance relative to the storm as well.

If you look closely at swell charts, period as a prime example, once the storm has done its work you can see the swell periods travelling away from the storm, growing in period over the initial 500-1,000km or so to a peak maximum period relative to the core winds speeds and longevity of that fetch.

So if you're coast is within this distance there'll be more a mix of swell periods trying to work themselves up into that maximum range, but not quite totally sorted out yet.

For most Hawaii swells, this one like the last three, there's enough distance for the swell periods to reach their maximum.

Zen, re last Eddie swell I'm not familiar with the storm or track etc and size that was forecast sorry. Will try have a look when I get a minute.

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 1:56pm

Craig wrote: growing in period over the initial 500-1,000km or so to a peak maximum period relative to the core winds speeds and longevity of that fetch
So peak period is actually a function of maximum swell heights. ie core winds speeds and longevity of fetch directly correlate to wave heights.....the only other factor is the length (distance) of the fetch.
Craig's picture
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Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 1:58pm

No not at all.

You can have a sustained fetch of 30kt winds and then a quick burst of 50kt winds and what you'll get is 16-17s fore-runners with no real size at all due to the 50kt winds being short-lived, while the bulk of the swell will be back in that 13s range from the 30kt winds.

yocal's picture
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yocal commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 3:54pm

I always wondered why a cyclone which hugged the east coast could still produce 12 second periods on shore.

So what you are saying is that the term 'peak swell period' is moreso the ability to define the longest period present in the water against the noise of shorter periods?
In that, there will always be a 17s period present in the water from 50kt winds, but the further away from the source you are, the more likely you are going to be able to differentiate it from other lower period swells from that same system (generated from periods of lower wind speeds) as they become absorbed into the 17 second pulse?

Go deeper Taylor, go deeper!

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 4:00pm

Not quite.

Ie if the 17s stuff was there it would be picked up by the analysis on the buoys.

As the swell is all still sorting itself out it hasn't fully developed to its full potential to that 17s range and that wouldn't be in the region.

But further away, down the coast or further down the line it would be sorting itself out and showing stronger periods the further away it travels.

Much like we see cold fronts push up the Southern NSW coast producing 10s S'th swell here which once it hits the North Coast is more 12-13s.

That 12-13s wasn't in the mix in Southern NSW but developed as it orgranised itself while travelling north. The max period the swell can reach though is relative to the wind peak strength and duration.

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 4:04pm

Perhaps I didn't explain myself properly. I agree with you above Craig. Perhaps Pg 17 of the attached ppt presentation explains what I'm trying to say. My point was maximum wave height and swell period are related. You cannot get a 17-20 sec period swell from a small wave height. Period is a function of the energy in the swell/storm. And my point was energy in the storm is not just about core wind speeds. It's also about fetch length and duration. So core winds, fetch length and duration all equate to swell height (as well as swell period). Hence why I think we're saying similar things?

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=19&cad=...

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 4:16pm

Yeah looks like we are.

carpetman's picture
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carpetman commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 4:29pm

Agree with Don. Period and wave height are a function of wind speed, fetch and duration.

If we have a core wind speed of 40kts, over a distance of 10nm we should get a peak period of about 5s, right?

Whereas if we have a core wind speed of 40kts, over a distance of 2000nm we should get a peak period of 22s.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 4:31pm

Yes totally, but Don mentioned wave height as well, which is really a result of all those separately but not directly relatable.

carpetman's picture
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carpetman commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 4:34pm

Thanks Craig!

batfink's picture
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batfink commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 5:26pm

That's a beautiful piece of powerpointing there Donw.

If ever there was a scientific explanation of why forecasting waves is as much an art as a science, that will do me.

I'm happy about that.

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 9:09pm

batfink wrote: That's a beautiful piece of powerpointing there Donw.

If ever there was a scientific explanation of why forecasting waves is as much an art as a science, that will do me.

I'm happy about that.

Well what can I say. Us engineers love PowerPoint!!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 10:51am

Here are the raw model forecasts for the last three and the coming swell.

15th Jan, afternoon peak.                                       6.2m @16.7s from 325 (NW)

20th Jan, afternoon peak (better aimed Peahi)      4.8m @15.2s from 325 (NW)

27th Jan, very late kick, peak into evening.     5.6m @17.9s from 321 (NW)

10th Feb, afternoon peak.                                       6m @17.8s from 326 (NW)

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 12:22pm

So, a little more size than the last swell event (27/1) but with the same period, and a smidge more north in direction. 

Wasn't the swell period one of the contributing factors for the no-go on the last swell?

Either way, I reckon it's gonna be pumping. 

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 11:02am

Gonna be a busy few days for a number of surfers with the Titans Of Mavericks given the green light for Friday (local time). That means Greg Long, Jamie Mitchell, Shane Dorian, Nathan Fletcher, Mark Healey, and Dave Wassell have to fly to NorCal straight after the Eddie to be ready for the comp the next morning.

offshoreozzie's picture
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offshoreozzie commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 2:32pm

They will be busy but you are getting your Wed Hawaiian time crossed with viewing in Aus on Thursday. They have Thurs as a travel day between and need be in the water Fri morning not the following morning :)

caml's picture
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caml commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 11:17am

Zen 2009 was shorter period

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 5:47pm

Cheers Cam, that's what prompted my question above as I'm lead to believe that this swell is very similar to the 2009 swell but is closer to Hawaii. This storm (I think) is tracking about 500nm closer so I assumed there would have been a shorter period for this swell. That's why I asked how much of a difference a distance of 500nm can make to peak period travelling through open ocean.

1173

caml's picture
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caml commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 7:28pm

Derailing after the question zena ! Might be the core wind speed ?

uplift's picture
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uplift commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 11:48am

...................

(post removed by moderators)

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 12:01pm

G'Day Uplift,

We've enjoyed your contributions in the past on nutrition, Aboriginal wisdom, and even correct form when training, but the relentless kiddie talk is wearing real thin. If it continues your posts will begin disappearing.

Thank you for understanding...

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 12:04pm

Thank you Stu!

wesley's picture
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wesley commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 12:31pm

A-fucken-men.

✌️

Gary G's picture
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Gary G commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 1:03pm

Gary really hates forum pests.

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 3:35pm

Finally, cheers Stu. Someone had to say it.

talkingturkey's picture
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talkingturkey commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 5:05pm

I'm sure Uplift's a big boy that can look after himself, but where did this post breach the code vis à vis "No private matters made public, no references or allusions to other people's partners or family members. Those are the specifics" ?

Annoying perhaps, maybe even juvenile, and that's all in the eye of the beholder, and you, being the boss, can do what you did, but code-breaching as above?

Or even #2 of the code "Don't create social chaos"?

Whatever that means?!

Don't be an annoying tool?

Jeez, form an orderly queue. Some posters on here do this every friggin' post! (In my eyes. Which don't really count in the grander scheme of things, I gather)

Swellnet. Love it or leave it?!

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 5:29pm

Social chaos? Guess it sounds more serious than it is, but in this case it was persistently taking comments threads away from original subject matter, which is occassionally fine, but the repetitive nature of his posts was a huge bore and a turn off for other users. We received plenty of complaints so it wasn't an "eye of the beholder" issue. At some point the wishes of the many - and as I said there were a great many - overcome the actions of one. Already receieved a few emails saying we shouldve done it years ago.

Also, if you're looking at the Code then take note of Point 6, no-one attacked other users as frequently as he did, and also Point 9, I got sick to the gills of having to defend myself and Swellnet from his snide anonymous remarks.

So yeah, call me John Howard if you want to stretch this to fit your politics: "We will decide who comes to this website..." blah blah blah

talkingturkey's picture
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talkingturkey commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 5:52pm

Interesting. The wishes of the many. Even got a few congratulatory emails too.

Y'know, I don't doubt that at all.

That he caused that much of a stir amongst the nameless that they actually took the time to complain directly to you.

I didn't realise he was that adept and that the hurt and pain he inflicted ran so deep for some.

Ah well.There's a lesson there somewhere for all of us.

I don't know what it is though.

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 6:00pm

Maybe go easy on the melodrama?

No-one mentioned being hurt, in pain, or whatever else your Shakespearean post conjured.

talkingturkey's picture
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talkingturkey commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 6:38pm

Wow! That's uncanny! I was just thinking of Shakespeare. King Lear, I believe.

"Funny-- I can look back on a life of achievement, on challenges met, competitors bested, obstacles overcome. I've accomplished more than most men, and without the use of my legs. What...What makes a man?

Is it being prepared to do the right thing? Whatever the cost? Isn't that what makes a man?"

"Ummm...sure. That and a pair of testicles."

"You're joking. But perhaps you're right.

Are you surprised at my tears, sir?

Strong men also cry...Strong men also cry."

I think we can all agree that there's a lesson in there for all of us.

roubydouby's picture
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roubydouby commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 9:55pm

"Old man said take any rug in the house"

Results may vary.

Shatner'sBassoon's picture
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Shatner'sBassoon commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 11:13am

" Your revolution is over, Uplift. Condolences. The bums lost. My advice is to do what your parents did; get a job, sir. The bums will always lose. Do you hear me, Uplift?"

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 11:57am

You're really hitting your straps again Uppy, keep it up bruvva

mk1's picture
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mk1 commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 12:09pm

What's people's thoughts on the corporate ownership of the Eddie? It's a prestigious event but I can't help seeing it as Quiksilver's play thing. Not sure about this time but some of the last line-ups seemed 80% Quiksilver riders with a few token alternates. Seems better this time. That alternate list is killer!

Baconeater's picture
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Baconeater commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 12:11pm

Going out on a limb here but coupla things:

1. The WSL has been flooding social media with hype for this....so much so I am thinking of blocking em.....I mean how much hype can you punch out for Waimea? It is never going to live up to 80 posts a day...
2. No disrespect to the great Eddie and his influence on the sport today, but is the Eddie comp really relevant in the modern age of Jaws? Yes it take balls of steel to drop into a 20ft monster and get smashed...but its not exactly riveting surf viewing

Oh and it looks like the Mav contest will be about as exciting viewing as last years Punta Galea chop hop....or the Todo Santos snooze fest

lost's picture
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lost commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 9:12pm

Yep over hyped for sure. Even looking at the last Eddie footage it really looks pedestrian compared to what we have seen all over internet in the last couple of weeks. That's not to take away the balls required ( I have hesitated at waves 1/4 that size ) but I just find it far more compelling seeing big turns, barrels and even better waves that deliver both.

That said i will still have it on caus hey anything to avoid real actual work right ?

knB

talkingturkey's picture
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talkingturkey commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 12:14pm

Anyone that frequents these forums ever surfed Waimea? And can give us all some authentic 'lived experience' knowledge of its characteristics?

I've never been to Hawaii myself.

Oh, and keep on keeping on, Uplift. You're more cryptic than Hynd back in the SW glory days at times, but that's a good thing?! I fink.

loofy's picture
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loofy commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 12:34pm

Waimea looks a bit merrgghhh in comparison to some of the paddle stuff we have seen at Jaws lately...

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 1:04pm

I've surfed Waimea a bit but not for about 15 years and a lot has changed in that time. Big wave boards have gone from three fins to four, the paddle revolution has changed the accepted length and foam distribution on those boards, while the fitness levels of surfers have gone through the roof.

There's been a lot of talk about people dropping in at Waimea, how catching waves two and three abreast is the done thing there, which is true. Yet I reckon that tomorrow we'll see more people then ever getting in on an angle and hunting the barrell. Maybe even riding shorter boards like Albee Layer does at Jaws, sitting under the ledge, then doing the mid-face bottom turn.

It's not gonna be a 'huge' swell so to progress you'll need to do something special. How that approach works when other contestants are flying down the shoulder could be interesting to say the least, and flat out entertaining if paths are crossed at 20ft+ Wammy.

udo's picture
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udo commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 2:57pm

Sunsetting on the W bay cam not showing much of a rise in swell, big kick overnight hopefully.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 3:12pm

No swell expected at all this evening.

51101 buoy about 10 hours travel time to north-west shows nothing either as expected.

Fore-runners to 22s expected around midnight.

southey's picture
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southey commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 4:56pm

Did i miss something .... I presume it was directed at me AGAIN .
Lucky i've got bigger shoulders , than legs ;-)
Don't leave now Uppy , your grating bullshit posts were just starting to grow on me .

Stu , Not sure what you read of that swell comparison summary that Craig posted , but to me it looks like there will be " feathering sets " if a little late albeit .
But you are with the exception Faunt Leroy the only one who has paddled it , that has been contributing to this thread ?! TWT
I think they may not call it on . So ceremony , a bit of umhming and arrggghing and then no dice .... thats if those forerunners don't show soon .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

southey's picture
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southey commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 12:00am

southey wrote:

Stu , Not sure what you read of that swell comparison summary that Craig posted , but to me it looks like there will be " feathering sets " if a little late albeit .
But you are with the exception Faunt Leroy the only one who has paddled it , that has been contributing to this thread ?! TWT
I think they may not call it on . So ceremony , a bit of umhming and arrggghing and then no dice .... thats if those forerunners don't show soon .

Was I the first and or only person to call it off ? Surely not ? Anyone else .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

mick-free's picture
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mick-free commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 6:35pm

That Jan 15 swell was THE day. Higher wave height lower period light winds. Best day in last 10 years.

Buoy 51101 showing 10 feet at 12 secs 9pm Hawaiian time so be late start.

Koa Rothman was saying something about a condensed format being run tomorrow.

Still going to be 25 foot Hawaaian at the peak and going to be a blast. What a week to be a big wave dave.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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caml commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 7:30pm

Mick was that a mistake About swell ? Do u mean the swell aaron gold got da jaw bomb ? I thought the period was higher & theres a mistake on that info. None of those were15 sec right ?

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caml commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 7:23pm

It should be over 17 sec not 15

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 7:14pm

No sign of the leading edge at the 51101 buoy as of 9pm local time. With an approx 10 hour travel time from this buoy to the North Shore, we'll need to see something here in the next few hours in order for there to be anything worthwhile early tomorrow morning.

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caml commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 7:22pm

Which means swellnets forecast is good ya ben ?

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Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 7:33pm

Yep at this stage. We've got 22s by 12am so here's hoping it hits in the next couple of hours.

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bookem28 commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 8:34pm

Looking pretty spot on at the moment. Last buoy data point has jumped to 19 s, currently 11.30 pm. The wave height data has been showing a steady increase over the last few hours...

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thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 7:33pm

Let's wait and see. We've had excellent feedback on our North Shore model output over the last couple of years so I'm already pretty confident in it.

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mick-free commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 7:49pm

Yes camel that lower period albeit 18 secs combined with light winds made it the best day ever.

Here's the stats for average period 8am -5pm

December 8, 2009 (Eddie Ran): 16.2ft at 16.1s from 325 degrees

January 15, 2016: 17.1 ft at 18.1s from 323 degrees

January 27, 2016: 14.14ft at 20s from 322 degrees

Forecast February 10, 2016 Forecast: 16.1ft at 18.1s from 326 degrees

At least we can have a surf and then watch the Eddie in morning.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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barley commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 8:24pm

Thought it was hittin late weds but thursday was gunna be the say? (Hawiian time)

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caml commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 10:18pm

Thanks mick , so this one has a period 2 second more than the 2009 eddie . Thats a major difference too , late arvo could improve if the period drops . Morning big 19 sec !

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mick-free commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 6:13am

Yep you in money. Going to be amazing Bay on dark.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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caml commented Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 at 11:07pm

Hows that swell buoy showing yet ?

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maddogmorley commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 12:40am

Good luck with the big wave award biggest paddle entry caml - insane drop. great ride. was that at YB?

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caml commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 1:21am

Cheers mdm . Apparently eddie is running late , wheres the buoy frequency ?

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sharkman commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 2:17am

not looking good , came in at 11.2 @ 19 secs , and now down to 14.8 @ 16 secs.

x

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sharkman commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 2:31am

now 13.8 @16 secs . is that even 15' waimea ?

x

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caml commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 3:33am

Jaws is perfect & no one there

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caml commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 3:35am

Hoaxed !

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Victoriasurfing1 commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 4:54am

Eddie called off not big enough wow what are the chances why can't they wait like 2 hours for it to build or is it the swell not going to reach 20 ft at all ?

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 5:23am

Heavy.

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offshoreozzie commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 5:49am

so much for all that confidence......

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offshoreozzie commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 5:53am

And now Titans are shitting in their boots as it's undercooked??? (or it's coming in just behind schedule and impossible for Eddie?)

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mick-free commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 6:11am

Wow how's the lastest
reading on the buoy 19.7 feet at 16 secs!! Pumping on dark!

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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mick-free commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 6:17am

Going of the bouy readings gotta say the SN models nailed the forecast

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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thermalben commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 6:24am

Yeah current 51101 data supports a late pulse in size, prob some rogue 20ft+ sets. Could see the buoy increase a little more over the coming hours too; tomorrow should be very large in the morning. 

lost's picture
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lost commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 6:52am

Over hyped and called off. yawn.

knB

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lost commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 7:00am

Morning show guys on the panel....."there is something spiritual here" nope doesn't feel like it, feels very very commercial with the big comp desk, then Pete calls it a "novelty event". Novelty spiritual event ??????

knB

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simba commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 7:04am

So whats the call with Mavericks?

simba

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caml commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 10:37am

Small mavs

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mick-free commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 11:44am

That storm is a long way away at its peak and fades fast. Going to be inconsistent too...frustrating. Looking at the wind wams onshores developing too

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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mick-free commented Thursday, 11 Feb 2016 at 7:51pm

Ben can you retro check the SN forecast models from Sunday or Monday for Wednesday Waimea (Hawaiian time) I didn't take a snapshot but I remember them being a gradual rise to a 6pm peak at 25 foot.

Just really interested in this big delay in the forecast and what happened with all the models and Pat and everyone being out as well. The screenshot you posted on Tuesday had the 20-25 foot at 12pm but reckon that wasn't the case when the models were forecasting earlier. . May have been mistaken but both the indo / hawaiian SN forecasts really pick up the timing when there is a rise in swell very accurately.

Hate to plug the surfline but great feature from the Jan 15 Swell on jaws is gold
http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/the-biggest-nw-swell-of-the-year----de...

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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southey commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 12:06am

Southey

e wrote: But you are with the exception Faunt Leroy the only one who has paddled it , that has been contributing to this thread ?! TWT
I think they may not call it on . So ceremony , a bit of umhming and arrggghing and then no dice .... thats if those forerunners don't show soon .

Was I the first and or only person to call it off ? Surely not ? Anyone else .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

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goofyfoot commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 6:00am

I did notice that Southey, nice work old son

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thermalben commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 8:07am

Looks like you were, Southey.

However I'd be way more impressed if someone - anyone - had negated the call shortly after the green light was given - ie several days out - based on specific synoptic info. For example, "because of x, y and z, I think everyone is wrong that the swell is going to be there early morning, so I don't think it will run as they won't have enough time to finish it". 

Making this call in the late afternoon prior to the event day, because the forerunners had yet to arrive at the Kauai buoy, isn't quite the same. 

Also, the green light was accompanied by an email to competitors (which I uploaded, above) that said "Organisers are prepared to condense the event into a modified format to maximise the window of swell".

This said to me that they were allowing for a possible late swell arrival by allowing the event to run in a different format if they couldn't get eight hours of 20ft+ surf. So, this increased the chances of the event running compared to the last two swells where they had more rigid boundaries around the running of the event.

They just weren't expecting it to be quite this late.

But, credit where it's due - you are the only person (that I've seen) who did flag the possibility of the event not running.

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mick-free commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 7:18am

Pete you go to Lord status

Lord Southey gotta a nice ring

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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southey commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 8:46am

I'm not taking any kudos for knowing the intamacies of the swell .

I just know that if you fool with Mother Nature then you'll end up getting skunked .
I really think they looked a gift horse in the mouth with the first two swells .

Knowing that they have some issues ATM with money , then it's any wonder . It's like they called this on due to public pressure or embarrassment for not having run .
I understand the complexities of the contest is really choking it's likability .

My main point is with three swells in almost straight succession /nearly rhythmic . It leads into my suspicion of Luna influence on storms diurnal peaks . Simply stating that timing of swell advancement will early be similar nearing a month apart . ( ie the others arrived early , but this was late .
Lastly in the last year or two I've starting taking more notice of the Swellnet forecasts (yes I know previously I was just here for the social outlet ) haha .
So yes Ben & Craig's model said so , and their word was good enough for me .
I do hope that hours of input that a lot of us contributed have helped influenced a few of their algorithm's , and as such I'll presume the cheques in the mail . Maybe even some wax ? ! Cold water pls .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

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zenagain commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 8:54am

If I remember correctly, Swellnet pay in used leggie strings.

One should be winging it's way to you soon Southey.

1173

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thermalben commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 9:02am

I've got a number of on-hold areas of research I'd like to undertake, one of which is the influence of atmospheric tides (lunar and solar) on the steering patterns of weather systems, and subsequently climatic swell trends. 

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southey commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 9:09am

Zen , Yeah that'll work where I surf .... !?!
Ben , my post was a few hours before that outlier energy was to arrive , and with what was going to be a slow build then by my back of napkin calc's it had to arrive earlier than expected to save Eddie .
Best we line you up for a Research - Grant then Ben . We don't want this corporate juggernaut to get in the way of your essential work .
I"ll just shove mister Denyer I an express post once I receive my spider's wire leggy strings !

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

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tonybarber commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 10:27am

Ben...excuse my ignorance here, but with all the data being collected and up to the minutes metrics, why is that we got this so wrong ? You mention tides etc. does this imply the models don't include lunar metrics. Given where we are with this research, I would assume that we have a good grip of swell predictions at 5- 7 days out. Seems not.

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thermalben commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 10:48am

What do you classify as being "so wrong"?

The Swellnet model (see below) two days out was pretty good - the surf was very big late yesterday. It certainly ended up being smaller than expected at its peak, but I dispute the claim that it was "so wrong".

The main issues were that the timing wasn't spot on - and this was crucial to the running of the Eddie - the first upwards phase of this event didn't have the expected amount of size and power, but it eventually filled in much closer to forecast expectations throughout the afternoon, and then peaked overnight.

It's a little little hard to ascertain the reasons why it didn't eventuate quite as good as expected, without doing a proper hindcast (been a little busy these last few days), but I'll have a look over the weekend.

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southey commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 11:00am

tonybarber wrote: Ben...excuse my ignorance here, but with all the data being collected and up to the minutes metrics, why is that we got this so wrong ? You mention tides etc. does this imply the models don't include lunar metrics. Given where we are with this research, I would assume that we have a good grip of swell predictions at 5- 7 days out. Seems not.

Give ' em a break . Its a chaos system , and as such there's always some variable to put a spanner in the works .
For me it was that the Fetch was longer than the other systems and less intense core winds . Timing of the systems passing over key surface waters and upper atmospheric conditions are too hard to get completely accurate .
So with the swell's size relying more on a longer fetch to increase swell entrapment it will most times take longer to build . I'm reasonably certain that this system intensified early and was then acted upon by a longer secondary fetch . Whilst the others were a building fetch acted upon by a later / nearer intensification . Especially that first swell which really bombed quite late ( Nth ) in the swell window . With all three we didn't see too much in the way of stalling and total system rotation upon itself .
Computers are only as good as the inputs .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

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thermalben commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 11:15am

From TC on Facebook, earlier this morning:

"Approx 3pm yesterday afternoon Eddie peeked his head out from under the covers, I say peeked, not peaked...as this current swell event here on the North Shore has been peaking while we have been sleeping, she been rumbling all night." Photo Sarah Di Bella

caml's picture
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caml commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 11:16am

Didn't anyone ever tell you the ocean is unpredictable . They had a point there

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penmister commented Friday, 12 Feb 2016 at 12:10pm

Ocean does what it wants...