House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom Saturday, 6 May 2023 at 9:14pm
velocityjohnno wrote:
AndyM wrote:

We'd largely moved on from the bogan Australia of the 70s and 80s but we hadn't gone full sanctimony.

Have we really, Andy?

Alternate theory: all those who come here from faraway shores, their children and grandchildren end up as bogans.

VJ, I think I’ve spotted some car models you used to own in that clip ;)

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 12:05am

The past is prologue: the little V8 on the sand when we caught up recently was hilarious fun.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 5:52am
bonza wrote:
Island Bay wrote:

Hence, Danes are lazy cunts (I'm Danish, but left many years ago).

or maybe they're actually just really fkn clever.

Both are true, but as an Aussie or Kiwi you'd be blown away by the general work ethic. They are very good at implementing good systems, and doing things well.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 6:50am
velocityjohnno wrote:
AndyM wrote:

We'd largely moved on from the bogan Australia of the 70s and 80s but we hadn't gone full sanctimony.

Have we really, Andy?

Alternate theory: all those who come here from faraway shores, their children and grandchildren end up as bogans.

Yeah I made sure I qualified it with “largely “ :)
Though there is a part of me that would prefer bogans to the pretentious aspirational.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 7:08am

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 10:01am
velocityjohnno wrote:

Here's an intersection between Valley Uprising and climbing's development, what's happening in surfing with it's recent popularity and crowding, and the snow. A very good look at how the classic Ski Towns have changed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S46iJIk3t70

Absolutely brilliant!!! Free-market out of whack.. Great, balanced, acknowledgement of all stakeholders. Cheers VJ

gsco's picture
gsco's picture
gsco Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 6:09pm

That honest govt ad was pure gold, even if I don’t agree with its criticism of the RBA.

It got one thing right there though, that the final report into the RBA was a couple hundred pages of fluff. Relieving the monetary policy committee of basic governance/managerial responsibilities is just common sense. No change to Australia’s overall monetary policy framework or its implementation as practiced and has served Australia well for the past 30 odd years, and rightly so. Also, making some changes to the wording of legislation so that it better matches the actual practice of the RBA is also just common sense and not a material change.

On monetary policy, I also see that the ABC has admitted defeat to the facts in its “evil corporate profits and price gauging caused our inflation” campaign, although they still seem to be trying to concoct bizarro, weird out, convoluted arguments to save face and salvage some kind of remnants of its RBA-bashing and “monetary policy doesn’t work” narratives: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-07/profits-havent-contributed-to-inf...

In this whole raising interest rate cycle and “the RBA and monetary policy are the enemies of society” episode of the past year or so, I’m really struggling to see what value the ABC has contributed to Australian society. It seems to have mostly created confusion and attacked and tried to turn the public against one of Australia’s central, foundational economic policy institutions, and the ABC even seems to insist on continuing to do so after a whole govt enquiry recommended little to no material changes to the RBA or it’s monetary policy framework and practice.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 10:58pm

Gonna backtrack a bit...this nasty little newsbite went under the radar.
tbb will bookend these unethical rent excuses by sharing more inside tips of Builder's Bullshit.
Ok! So we're talkin 'bout the shit that lazy arsed rich people say to rip off hard working folk!

NEWS article tries to shock but is shyly more informative of Lease contracts!
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/renting/unethical-and-gutles...
nsw RTA Section [85] Landlords can evict whoever whenever for whatever!

Vic RTA allows "Residential Owner the Power to Flick Ya!...But Owner has 6mths to move in!"
Pretty Much can milk 6 mths high rent then Owner resides for 6mths...(Similar to Peak Airbnb)

Qld : Termination > Allows Owner to Reside [Sale] Repairs
https://www.rta.qld.gov.au/ending-a-tenancy/ending-a-tenancy-agreement
REIQ : Instucts landlords how to bypass State Laws to Power Up & evict tenants en masse!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/05/queensland-real-e...

Bog Standard Real Estate > Landlord Bullshit...(Example!)
*Landlord wants to move back in...Ya gotta fuck Off!
Rent Goes Up! (Next sucker!)

Expert Hired Bully Bullshit Artists employ 3rd Party Nobodies.
*O/s Owners are moving back in...so ya got 90 days to fuck off!
Bloke reckons 10 others in same Postcode got the same letter.
Place was re-rented for $300/wk extra.

*Owner is selling to a Family Friend...(Did I say that right!) > So ya gotta move out mate!
Place gets re-rented for $180/wk extra.

*Landlord says their Parent was granted a Visa & is moving into the place...Ya gotta go!
$425 Rent > Now advertised at $575 (Comes with fully renovated Landlord parent trap!)
https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/sydney-epping-landlord-lied/

o/s (Canada) Refer to these Family Flings as [N12]
https://www.ajmurraylaw.ca/post/landlords-using-loophole-to-evict-tenants

Origin of the Family Fling Thingy...(tbb promised to out the source of these Family Feuds)

Goldie 1980's Japanese Invasion mandated Real Estate / Developers a Building Licence! (Correct!)
Joh's White Shoe Gods could Construct High Rise with a flyer in yer letter box!
But these crooks needed to find ways to economise on the build.
They did this by lying about Fake cheaper Quotes from rival contractors...
This carried on until tech improved & contractors could check on pricing...

Once Contractors realized these White Shoe Builders were playing them to base price...it was on!
Contractors met at Pubs & Price Fixing became the Norm...
Contractors agreed on certain elevated base price for each Crook.
Crook rings around to grind down the cheapest Quote...but only gets Fixed ramped Quotes! Fark!
Yes! tbb worked for Contractors caught out & in return fixed prices upon...these Shonky Builders!

Rort turned sour for the price fixers...crew might recall '90's Cement Price Fixing > High Rises

These Timeshare / Hi-Rise white Shoe brigades hit the Housing Estates in '90's > 2000's
Here's a few of their Con Jobs...Let's start with Contractual Obligation.

*Contractors Supply/labour free on Display Homes in order to gain yearly 30 home contract.
Only they soon find the Builder has no sooner conned a rival contractor for same deal across town?
Argy bargy starts as to why Contractor 2 has moved in on Contractor 1 Turf! Your Turf...It's my turf!
Builder pisses himself laughing with $20-30,000 ahead just on those loser trades > Who's next!
Builder keeps going until his name is mud or builds so many homes ya gotta hang out for peanuts.

*Builder asks us for Cost Neutral Supplies & free Labour for his Daughter's 1st Home.(Fair Call!)
Noting that Family & Homes go together > Leads to > Canada / Oz Rental Family Exemptions.
Exactly! Crew are ahead of tbb...c'mon, out with it then...give us the dirt...Tough Gig!

Well! It was no Lie! It was his Daughter's First House as we saw her pegging in the [4 Sale Sign]
All us Tradies vomited there & then...wot fuckin' fools are we!
The Builder / Daughter were runnin' as Real Estate Scammers rippin' off us tradies.

*Variation on a theme of the Helpless little woman...
Builder asks us to do a freebie for his Secretary's House! ( Bullshit...not again tbb!) Yep!
Yes! Again it was his secretary's House...coz she sells homes from there every day!
We basically bankrolled his secretaries offshoot real estate Office to sell his & other houses!

Cont..this builder ditched us over $150 / $3,500 House quote...(Say business is business)
Later on begs us to inspect...Saved $150 coz dudes used no glue & Walls warbled entering doors.
Had to screw / patch each Stud with total repaint ...all know at what cost! (see: Greedy Bastards!)

Family Flings ( Flybynite Family Tree) White Shoes > Shonky Builders > Seachange LandLords

Welcome to 1970's hard cold facts

27yr was peak pop Group 70% Youth left home at 16 > 27yrs & lived mostly in Tents / Van Parks.
2x Lads lived in Tents > 1 or 2 Chix in Vans > Young Couples + Babies had Vans/Annex
The ones with the Annex had the gear & the sessions...that's how '70's renter's rolled.

Single Mums had no support so worked day/nites > Latch Key Kids > Landlord give ya 6mths > out!

Bikers > Punks lived in Hovels...chuck Garbage under the Floorboards + Sleep with Rats.
One Goldie hovel was a hang for 40 Bikers > 40 Punkz > 40 Skinheads > 40 Mods
Bikers held knives to Punkz who tried to hide Mods from being killed by Skinheads = (Harmony!)
Where's the Drugs! Dunno! Where's the Mods! Dunno! Think we should just Kill the Punkz anyway!
Sure! It was tbb's home...we paid rent > Did repairs to keep the place liveable > no complaints!
And No! Don't recall ever having a Key to that Hovel or a bed...Good Security though!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 11 May 2023 at 9:09am

Another well written and easily articulated article.

https://blog.bitmex.com/the-denominator/

gsco's picture
gsco's picture
gsco Thursday, 11 May 2023 at 11:28am

wow, what an article. We really are in a post truth, post facts, postmodern nihilistic world in which we are allowed to make up our own reality.

Don, when reading articles by crypto/bitcoin spruikers, there's some immediate telltale signs to look out for to see if the articles are worth reading. The main one is when they say that countries have fractional reserve banking systems:

bitmex article wrote:

However, banking systems get into trouble quite often because they are fractionally reserved – i.e., they lend out more than they have on deposit.

Given that the fiat-based fractional reserve banking system and the financial system of Pax Americana...

Even though the wiki page on fractional banking says "Fractional-reserve banking is the system of banking operating in almost all countries worldwide...," fractional banking refers to a system that got replaced in the late 80s with the current system of global banking prudential supervision and regulation defined by the Basel Accords (1, 2), starting with Basel I in 1988.

Global banking supervision and regulation is now up to the Basel III iteration, and Basel IV is to be rolled out this year. The Investopedia page on Basel III gives an ok summary.

Fractional banking is the old system whereby for every $1 of deposits a bank received, it had to hold a percent in reserves (as precisely defined) and was then able to lend out the remainder.

Modern banking doesn't work like that anymore. People working in the finance industry have endless fun taking the piss out of crypto spruikers for their obsession with a system of banking regulation that no longer exists.

The main rules in Basel III that are similar/analogous to the old fractional reserve system are the liquidity requirements (1, 2).

One of the reasons fractional banking got replaced by the Basel Accords is that banks are much more complicated beasts nowadays than entities that just take in deposits and give out housing loans (although many do still operate like that), and the financial system is hugely, "infinitely" more complicated and advanced now.

CBA's balance sheet from its most recent annual report:

In $M, total loans are 773,000, cash and liquid assets are 151,000 (bout 19.5% of loans), total deposits are 784,000 (bout equal to total loans), etc. From these financial statements you can calculate all of the Basel III ratios for CBA.

The article is from a crypto exchange and its final sentences reveal its motives: "Just make sure you are not the last sucker in the Western financial system when the bill comes. Get your Bitcoin, and get out!"...

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 11 May 2023 at 4:23pm

Thanks GSCO and I was taking the "buy bitcoin" with a grain of salt from that article, also noting he put gold and bitcoin into the same "inflationary hedge" basket which I just don't agree with myself noting the "speculative" nature of BTC compared to Gold. That's not to say I don't have BTC in my portfolio either!!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 11 May 2023 at 4:28pm
basesix wrote:
velocityjohnno wrote:

Here's an intersection between Valley Uprising and climbing's development, what's happening in surfing with it's recent popularity and crowding, and the snow. A very good look at how the classic Ski Towns have changed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S46iJIk3t70

Absolutely brilliant!!! Free-market out of whack.. Great, balanced, acknowledgement of all stakeholders. Cheers VJ

No worries Basesix, I thought it was very good and recommended it to my boys who tend to buy the epic passes. Little did we all know they changed boarding and skiiing as we know it... Some bits I'd say are great, like having an inexpensive way to ride multiple mountains when you are young - other bits like the changes in the towns, not so much. Whoever thought up the pass and consolidation when US skiing started to drop off is a commercial genius with outsized good and bad results from their idea.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 11 May 2023 at 4:51pm
AndyM wrote:

Yeah I made sure I qualified it with “largely “ :)
Though there is a part of me that would prefer bogans to the pretentious aspirational.

Feel much the same way, one is far more honest than the other.

Tism did a song about all this...

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 11 May 2023 at 4:56pm

Now all we need to do is turn the honest govt ads into some form of political movement for the young to actually create some ch.... look! a squirrel!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 11 May 2023 at 7:27pm

A good summation of Australia, answers why we don't have industry in AUD terms, includes an example of negative gearing and how it works.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 10:00am

https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/05/18/confusing-interest-rates-r...

"There are two reasons a 4.8 per cent cash rate is not out of the question, and can’t be dismissed as the ravings of the RBA’s resident radical loony.

First, other countries with lower inflation rates than ours have cash rates above 5 per cent (New Zealand and the United States); and second, the RBA apparently regards the current cash rate of 3.85 per cent as neutral – neither tight, nor loose."

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 12:01pm
kaiser's picture
kaiser's picture
kaiser Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 1:05pm

Anecdotally, chatting with a couple of guys last night about some redundancies that I’ve known about. Both others (one in IT and the other in medical supplies field) both said they have had the same. Lay-offs that came out of the blue.

flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 3:56pm

I agree with RBA's rates, they're average at the moment. However, house prices are well above the average. So, the problem is in house prices, not the rates.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 4:19pm
flollo wrote:

So, the problem is in house prices, not the rates.

Hence why prices have to come down as rates rise, unemployment rises and the clayton recession arrives.

flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 4:35pm

Yes, that would be the normal expectation however, they still seem to stubbornly high.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 6:18pm

Thats what happens when you have a chronic shortage of something and you increase demand.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 7:23pm

That noise you can hear is the sound of me flogging a dead horse.

"A policy aiming for low net migration, with a stable population size below 30 million, would likely gain majority public support. Several opinion polls suggest most Australians (around two-thirds) do not support further population growth. A recent poll found that only 18 per cent of Australians supported a return to pre-pandemic levels of net overseas migration of 240,000 or higher.
Sixty-nine per cent supported much lower levels or even zero net migration.

Limiting population growth in Australia is therefore relevant (it would reduce environmental impacts), feasible (since the immigration lever can be readily adjusted) and publicly acceptable. Why then is it not on the policy agenda of any of the major political parties? Why is it so hard to have a conversation about the downside of Big Australia?"

https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/big-australia...

Basically 70% supported much lower or zero net migration.
Fuck me.
We're getting taken fair up the wrong'un.

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 7:46pm

Ironically, it is the people who prioritise economic growth, and don't get that people are expensive until they are 20, and after they are 70, and getting new taxables in their prime productive years is a gold mine. Has to be spent right of course!!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 9:56pm

+1 for 'Clayton recession'
If the metrics don't show it (jams in more people) it didn't happen.
Sound economic managerz.

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Thursday, 18 May 2023 at 10:22pm

or we could lock the gate, and vote 1 for the Soylent Greens?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 19 May 2023 at 6:25am

@AndyM,

Read this? Opening Keynote for Sydney Morning Herald Sydney 2050 Summit https://medium.com/@matt_11659/the-great-australian-scream-dbc4095af1a0

Long read, take it in chunks or just charge through. Strangely made me sympathetic towards pollies as, if any of them were to try and curb migration for the greater good, it'd be their head in the stocks come the recession. House of cards has never been so apt.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 19 May 2023 at 8:06am

It's like fear governs policy at the highest levels for the last 30 years "I don't want to be tarred with a recession on my watch," and the result is an accumulation of progressively more insane policy that further heightens imbalances, and now threatens Australian citizens having a roof over their heads. Just let it correct, and come out on the other side with much higher organic growth - and more affordable shelter.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Friday, 19 May 2023 at 8:23am

From an ideological point of view, i too would like lower immigration, on the face of things it seems crazy and scary that we are adding something like 5 million more people via immigration in the next 10 years.

But the reality is most of the general population including me really doesn't have the understanding of the bigger picture of what it would mean if we didn't have these immigration numbers???

As my understanding is the problem is the current population and large number of people (boomers) are aging quickly and we dont have a high enough birth rate to replace deaths, and you would expect there is some real effect this has on tax revenue and spending and on the economy if immigration rates were much lower, which you would expect would have an effect on the economy and how much tax we pay and all kinds of other aspects that could effect our own standard of living a prosperity of the country.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 19 May 2023 at 8:57am

"But the reality is most of the general population including me really doesn't have the understanding of the bigger picture of what it would mean if we didn't have these immigration numbers???"

Well largely it's to balance out shortcomings elsewhere in the economy. Continual erosion in the tax base is a big one. Bit of a shock to look back at Australia's residential tax rates through the 70s and 80s. If anyone dared propose those rates now they'd be howled down as a socialist.

Raising taxes on our resources is another option. We receive a fraction of what other big resource exporters such as Norway get. The Mining Tax both should've been a lay down misere for Australia. Utter madness that we said no. Just one false move in many we've made in that regard.

Point being, we may complain about immigration but when it comes to servicing the economy we leave pollies little option but to pull the population lever.

gsco's picture
gsco's picture
gsco Friday, 19 May 2023 at 9:20am

Very good article Stu. It outlines all the problems Australia is facing. Thanks for posting.

But it doesn't really posit a reason for why Australia ended up like this. One thesis:

- Both sides of politics have abandoned the interests of the Australian people.
- Politicians govern in the interests and wealth of themselves, their families and associates, and/or the wealthy elite and large corporations.
- Our media and "democracy" are captured and controlled by the wealthy elite and large corporations via donations, lobbying, think tanks, deep pockets, etc.
- Our media and "democracy" are simply tools and processes via which powerful, wealthy and influential people and corporations push and realise their own self interest and agendas, and grow their wealth, at the expense of the people, who are largely helpless and defenceless.
- Our market economy has abandoned economic orthodoxy in favour of going down the path of a political ideology of laissez-faire neoliberalism since it further enables and enhances the above 4 points: the capturing and control of our media and "democracy", and the raping of our economy and public wealth, by politicians, the wealthy elite and large corporations.

Media:
Governments, the wealthy elite and large corporates continually, all day, every day, dupe and brainwash the population by massive and extensive yet subtle advertising and public relations campaigns across all forms of media. People don't realise that nearly 100% of the media they now consume is advertising, activism, and public opinion control, nothing else. There is nearly no neutral, factual, unbiased media reporting; there's just no money in doing that. Everything is a subtle (and not so subtle), deceptive infomercial, advertorial and/or opinion piece designed to push political, commercial or wealthy elite interests and agendas. The media is simply a tool of warfare between competing government, corporate and wealthy elite interests. Microsoft now even owns ChatGPT...consumer beware...

"Democracy":
- Many major decisions that influence the nation are made non-democratically, either by bipartisan support, or in secret (aukus), or without having been put to an election, or as just another policy that no one supported but was part of the platform of the party that got voted in.
- In this and many other ways, two-party parliamentary democracy political systems are dysfunctional and non-democratic. A party gets elected into power and then starts making decisions that the people don't want and have no say in (more immigration anyone...?).
- Lobbying and donations completely compromise and corrupt political decision-making and "democracy".
- The private sector commercial and financial interests, and the investment property and share ownership, of politicians also completely corrupts a "democracy"; it all destroys political impartiality and their incentive and ability to make decisions in the interests of the Australian people, particularly the average worker and less well off.
- The influence of think tanks is out of control, and their funding and hence lobbying and influence is completely conflicted and compromised due to them being funding by either a certain side of politics, and/or large corporations, and/or the wealth elite. Think tanks push only the interests and agendas of whoever funds them, not the interests of the Australian people. They are just additional warfare tools of governments, corporations and the wealthy elite, along with the captured media and lobbying etc.
- The revolving door between government, think tanks and corporates creates conflicted webs and ecosystems of alliances and connections all aimed at furthering their own private interests and wealth at the expense of the Australian people.

Market economy:
- There is nowhere in a whole economics degree, at either undergraduate or masters level, where one is taught that neoliberalism is the right way to go. The reason is simple: neoliberalism isn't an economic theory or idea; it's a political ideology.
- Neoliberalism simply creates a free-for-all private sector economy that is easily captured and exploited by the already powerful and influential, large corporations, and the wealthy elite, largely because there's no real regulation, control or rules over what's happening, and because everything has been privatised and able to be taken over, owned, run and exploited by private interests.
- Neoliberalism is what's termed as extreme or laissez-faire "capitalism" in economics textbooks, and is not recommended; in fact, it's strongly warned against in economics.
- Economics - both theory and applied - does not prescribe minimal to no government or taxes, austerity, deregulation and privatisation of everything, no union presence, ignoring the environment, high immigration levels, no role for fiscal policy in managing the economic cycle and instead relying solely on monetary policy, little to no role for government investment in infrastructure and research and development, basically leaving everything to the private sector, etc. About the only thing in this sense economics backs is fairly free and open trade.
- Economics prescribes a very strong and central role for governments and regulation in an economy, for instance to address, manage and regulate things like:
i. market failure including externalities, natural monopolies and the provision of public goods such as health, education, welfare, defence and infrastructure,
ii. inequality, (re)distribution of income, welfare and social safety net,
iii. economic stability, low unemployment and inflation, and steady growth,
iv. enforcement of the law, particularly in terms of property rights and contracts,
v. prevention of monopolistic power, hence the encouragement of competition,
vi. etc
- There was once upon a time a strong involvement in Australian government and political decision-making of actual mainstream, orthodox economists, who prescribed orthodox economic advice that was not influenced by the political ideologies of either neoliberalism or socialism/communism. These voices seemed to have vanished nowadays, and things have degenerated into political ideology warfare instead of sane economics debate and policy prescriptions.
- The point to make here though is the problem is not a liberal democracy with market economy and a free media. The problem is the style or form of economic system that is being rolled out in Australia (and the US, NZ, etc), which is captured and controlled by corporate and wealthy elite interests since they are able to take direct advantage of it for their own ends.
- People often accuse the Scandinavian/nordic countries of being "socialist" or "communist", but orthodox economic theory and practice would describe them as clustering around and very close to the centre, and would describe the US Australia, New Zealand as extreme laissez-faire capitalist economies. This is the overall message The Australia Institute is trying to get out.

Overall, the nature and structure of our captured dysfunctional two-party representative democracy, captured media, unbridled think tank and lobbying culture, and laissez-faire neoliberal economy, simply results in corruption, cronyism, conflicts of interest, extreme concentration of wealth and power, abuse of market power, neglected social and economic problems, extreme inequality, poverty and disadvantage, national decisions being made in the personal and private interests of politicians, corporations and the wealthy elite at the expense of the Australian people, etc.

Our system of liberal democracies, free media and market economies have now degenerated into battlefields of warfare between competing political, ideological, corporate and wealthy elite interests. Our system no longer works in the interests of the people, particularly the average Australian worker and the struggling masses.

Hence the social, political and economic problems, and complete polarisation and division of society, that we're seeing in the US and are increasingly seeing in Australia, NZ, Canada, etc.

Hence everything explained in that article.

It's a broken system.

andy-mac's picture
andy-mac's picture
andy-mac Friday, 19 May 2023 at 9:44am
stunet wrote:

@AndyM,

Read this? Opening Keynote for Sydney Morning Herald Sydney 2050 Summit https://medium.com/@matt_11659/the-great-australian-scream-dbc4095af1a0

Long read, take it in chunks or just charge through. Strangely made me sympathetic towards pollies as, if any of them were to try and curb migration for the greater good, it'd be their head in the stocks come the recession. House of cards has never been so apt.

Geez that was sobering reading.... Interesting times.

flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Friday, 19 May 2023 at 10:04am

I read 1/2h of it and it's really good (I'll finish the rest later). Nothing new really, just summarised in a good way. I would challenge the $1.2m average house price in Sydney. That is true for houses but you need to include units as well. There are plenty that are priced well below that mark. I know that everyone wants a house but it's simply not realistic that everyone lives in one in the future. If we convert our prices into price per sqm we still have a lot of good value in Australia.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 19 May 2023 at 10:12am
flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Friday, 19 May 2023 at 10:18am

Yes Udo, Chandler is enforcing compliance all over the place. I follow him on Linkedin and he's constantly sharing defective findings.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Friday, 19 May 2023 at 10:59am
stunet wrote:

"But the reality is most of the general population including me really doesn't have the understanding of the bigger picture of what it would mean if we didn't have these immigration numbers???"

Well largely it's to balance out shortcomings elsewhere in the economy. Continual erosion in the tax base is a big one. Bit of a shock to look back at Australia's residential tax rates through the 70s and 80s. If anyone dared propose those rates now they'd be howled down as a socialist.

Raising taxes on our resources is another option. We receive a fraction of what other big resource exporters such as Norway get. The Mining Tax both should've been a lay down misere for Australia. Utter madness that we said no. Just one false move in many we've made in that regard.

Point being, we may complain about immigration but when it comes to servicing the economy we leave pollies little option but to pull the population lever.

Really its all complicated and a balancing act and there's also rarely really real solution's more just compromises and trade offs.

There is probably also advantage's to having a bigger population again just more tax payers and just makes more industries onshore more viable when you have more consumers.

But yeah it is kind of scary to have seen how much population growth has changed things since we were young to now and to think how things will be in the future.

And i now worry about my kids being able to afford a house, pre Covid prices to me seemed about right, but post covid prices are just crazy.

I just wish i owned a second property in Australia that my kids could use to get ahead, and i think a whole heap of people also think like this which then makes things even worse if they are able to do it.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 19 May 2023 at 1:06pm

Agree those last 2 para's re: kids & house Indo

flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Friday, 19 May 2023 at 1:14pm

Regarding the house for kids - absolutely. I still got a bit of time but working my ass off doing 2 jobs to try and get it done. I also come from the Southern European background where everyone helps their kids. Doing nothing would be completely unacceptable.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 19 May 2023 at 1:21pm

Totally agree, from northern European background. Well on the way. Edit: if covid pricing hadn't happened I reckon they'd be there right now

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 19 May 2023 at 1:37pm

& Gt Australian scream article is spot on about the myriad award rates... my Ms tried to make sense of them and work out where her role was amongst them, it was unintelligible and not one of the roles was a match, she considered then that her employer was stealing wages from what she thought was due via the confusing table, and ultimately told them to GAGF

If we must centrally plan the wages, at least make it easy to understand.

So many interventions means that it isn't really a laissez faire neoliberal system, it's a mix of free-for-all and central planning, already.

flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Friday, 19 May 2023 at 1:53pm

Oh yeah, spot on regarding the awards. It got my head spinning. I don't understand any of it, seems like bureaucracy x 10 to what is required. I hired people over the years and always paid above-average packages. I don't remember ever using those awards. And yes, I agree with so many interventions. It feels like you need a lawyer before starting anything.

To me, the most important issue highlighted in that article are all these 'students' on student visas. The numbers are just insane, seems like a massive loophole.

bonza's picture
bonza's picture
bonza Friday, 19 May 2023 at 2:40pm
stunet wrote:

Strangely made me sympathetic towards pollies as, if any of them were to try and curb migration for the greater good, it'd be their head in the stocks come the recession.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 19 May 2023 at 2:59pm

Yes and then he got drawn and quartered.

My point exactly.

Fine if you want to perhaps, maybe, though in this environment highly unlikely, be remembered on down the ages, but not if you want to survive intact.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Friday, 19 May 2023 at 3:10pm

and dont forget they also pulled his guts out and burnt them while he was still alive......

bonza's picture
bonza's picture
bonza Friday, 19 May 2023 at 4:15pm

hang on a sec. after they mutilated mel as wallace. Rob the bruce went on to defeat the poms - that was the arse kissed by a king scene yeah? and the scots ruled scotland from there on.

checkmate punks.
stay out of this VJ. it's a movie

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Friday, 19 May 2023 at 5:47pm

Bob Birrell PhD, long a Monash chap, maybe Australia's most vigorous/controversial immigration academic, who is as complex as the issue.. socialist greenie who has long advocated a stabalised population with low immigration, a lot of his research based around 'are govts achieving their stated aims through their immigration policies?' Some here may enjoy a dig?
https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20110401190159108

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 19 May 2023 at 7:22pm

part highland clan here bonza, kids moreso... family squabbles

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 19 May 2023 at 7:32pm

from article:

"Julie Collins MP, the Minister for Housing who owns five homes and is, unironically, the Minister for Homelessness has announced that from July 1 the eligibility for the First Home Guarantee and two others will be expanded those that haven’t owned in a decade, permanent residents and “two individuals, siblings, a parent, cousins, a child.. and two friends”."

holy fuck, hold on to your hats, could this be scraping the bottom of the barrel desperately finding grist for the mill to keep these high prices?

looks at Ireland 2008 and says "hold my beer"

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 19 May 2023 at 7:25pm

So this is how boomerworld ends, not with a whimper but a bang

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 19 May 2023 at 7:32pm

After this, would not be surprised to see my insane suggestion for the First Pet Homeowners Grant, a cool 100,000 for every family pet toward a purchase of a house in the pet's name

I'm getting an ant farm