House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
So this is basically an admission that any trust in the government is misplaced , that the professional economists running the direction of the nation’s finances have not a shred of an idea - or they’re corrupt and that foreign buyers were indeed pushing house prices up exactly as has been vociferously denied for years.
PS - Great thread with some very well thought out opinions throughout. I had a bit of a look earlier and kudos to Batfink , Purplepills and Hastoes amongst many others.
Yep ONE of SEVEN factors involved, but xenophobia is your default position so don't bother with the other six. It's all the fault of those horrible foreigners. You might even be old enough to remember Alf Garnet. You're sounding more like him everyday.
I’m aware of all factors and I think it’d be wise to temper all of them in order to reduce house prices.
Foreign ownership is the least excusable and a factor that should never have been allowed to occur. It benefits no one in Australia. Particularly when it’s not reciprocated by the country buying the most real estate.
Impossibly high house prices deterring many Australians from ever owning the roof over their head and virtually enslaving those who do and you’re still arguing that we should prioritise foreigners over ourselves and that it’s xenophobic to suggest otherwise.
And I believe you vigorously denied that foreign purchases were having any kind of material impact on house affordability.
Wrong again mate.
Ha ha you accused me of benefiting from it and yes I am an Australian and there are plenty who did better than me out of rising prices. And then there were the flow on effects, all that building work, new places, renovations and so on ........ but I am sure you checked that all your work was for dinky di third generation Aussies in locations unaffected by foreign investment........ otherwise, guess what? You benefited too!
Alf Garnett was funny, but. The show as a whole, I mean.
Alf Garnett the character was funny too I guess, unintentionally.
The residential building boom was an unproductive money churn that has compromised the Australian economy exponentially more than enhancing it. The money made by individuals during the boom has mostly found its way into the pockets of the banks.
Now with the impending crash the remaining gains such as elevated superannuation will be eradicated and the winners will be very few and far between. There was never any justification for permitting foreign ownership of residential real estate.
The fact that you’d laud it suggests just how little regard you have for your fellow Australians.
....... Yeh but come clean mate, you were in for your chop too. Inflated wages, plenty of work ..... not that you appear to actually work very much, so where did your money come from?
I didn’t profit from the housing boom. I haven’t been involved with residential construction for 15 years.
The whole deal makes me sad. An arms race to spend more of the banks money. Every level of Australian power colluding to worsen the lives of the man in the street.
Bigger mortgages, more stress . Work longer , less time for family or life. Ruin the environment, waste resources.
Tear them down just to make them bigger . People spending their lives paying off a home theatre instead of watching their kids grow up.
Banks , Politics , business , media ,....everyone was in on the game . Still are.
Make Australia bigger,bigger ,bigger. Borrow , work , sleep , work....then wheel them off to a nursing home cause the kids are too busy indentured to their own bank masters.
Fuck that. A rort and a hoax . I didn’t make a cent off it.
And the thing about the wage increase for construction workers ....watch what happens there now that the East coast is filled with workers in a dying market. Don’t be fooled into thinking that wasn’t part of the plan either .
Not sure if you caught this yesterday: http://www.patgrantart.com/vanishcoast/vc.html
That’s the Australia I love. Work / life balance , less pretention. You don’t have to live in a shit heap , but wasting your life servicing a massive mortgage is a set up.
So what work did you do that so insulated from the economic growth stimulated by foreign investment?
I’ve been way too exposed to the effects of foreign investment in Australia through my work . That’s why I’m not a fan of it. Foreign powers have no love for Australia and their influence is inevitably mercenary and corrosive on our culture.
My dislike hasn’t evolved in a vacuum, nor is it based on unfounded prejudice.
Foreign money comes with strings attached. The costs associated with the short term dollar carrot are too great.
GST blows out House build by up to 40%.
Add on annual investors spike of 4 x inflation rate.
Add on go go gonski OP factor = You're Fucked!
Ex teacher turned real estate guru has kept an eye on the schoolies craze.
Parents now select School 1st / Catchment 2nd / House of Cards,sticks,crumbling...
Perfect Parenting Era sees my perfect kid'z School ever elevating our House Price.
I bet your kid'z bottom of the table spazz school isn't smart enough to do that!
OP% = House Price...
Parents battle it out at latest greatest OP% Boxing Day sale until [ SOLD ]
Next years OP results maze the next plague of BoomTown Pratz.
Apparently the rampant rise in 'Class' warfare is dumb Dad's fault...that's Bullshit!
(Oz Dads are too stupid to train their sperm to swim towards the OP catchment)
Mum: "I reckon you fucked up Shaz'...I told ya to marry one of them nice wog boys!"
“The whole concept of bailing out the housing bubble via re-inflating the housing bubble is complete and utter insanity.
Why put effort into keeping the tumor alive that is killing the host, and when it finally ruptures, will definitely do so?
You’d think the only course forward would be to accept we’ve caused a malignant growth and then do everything you can to isolate, extract and prevent any chance of recurrence. Instead, we’re trying to pretend this swelling pustule is going to develop into a rather lovely second head for twice the pleasure at a property investment inseminar after-party (paid for with AfterPay).
WTF is wrong with people?!?”
Barely Liveable Real Estate...(Serious- Penthouse to Pavement humour)
Pffft.....more stupid fucks contradicting Vic Local.
This time it’s the Westpac bank. What would they know about real estate prices ?
“The bank believes we are heading for a severe downturn in commercial property valuations, which will trigger a sharp rise in loan losses in Westpac’s business and institutional banking divisions.
…Chanticleer understands the economic forecast underpinning the $1.6 billion impairment includes a spike in mortgage defaults along with a 10 per cent to 15 per cent decline in residential property prices.
…But it is the commercial property weakness that will worry the prudential regulator and investors because the loan numbers are so large.“
Blindboy swore blue that immigration had no impact on housing demand and no impact on house prices.
Someone ought to let the amateurs at Square market property research know the Blindboy version of the truth !
“Sales values have dropped 85% in Melbourne in the past eight weeks, according to figures released on Tuesday, equating to a loss of $584m compared with the same period last year. In Sydney, sales were down 79% (a loss of $454m)…
Across all capital cities rental asking prices fell 3.1% in the past week and 2.5% in the past month… But they mask huge falls in the plusher areas such as Sydney’s eastern suburbs, where house rents are down 10%, and the CBD, where they are off by 17%.
The president of the Property Owners Association of NSW, John Gilmovich, said the rental market was “very challenging” in Sydney’s inner suburbs.
“In a nutshell, 10% of the rental book is vacant,” he said. “Some tenants have just bailed out. They’ve broken their leases and handed back the keys saying they just can’t pay. Others have seen their leases expire and not renewed. The under-40s especially are moving back to live with mum and dad.”
He confirmed rents had dropped at least 10%, and in some areas as much as 15%, leading to a price war between landlords desperate to fill their properties…
Louis Christopher of SQM research said it was “pretty evident” that there was a recession in the housing rental market and one of the main causes was a fall in net migration thanks to the coronavirus lockdown…
Christopher said: “The bulk of population growth is from overseas migration and that has effectively been frozen. It’s come to a screeching halt.”
Blindboy , Facto , Vic Local .....proven wrong by the experts. How many times did these people call me a liar and even a racist ( FFS ) for speaking the truth that mass immigration pushes up house prices and increases lack of affordability for Australians ?
These people have an ideological barrow to push and will lie to achieve their aims as proven yet again.
“He said there were risks ahead, particularly for Sydney and Melbourne as both relied on strong population growth.
"Sydney and Melbourne arguably show a higher risk profile relative to other markets due to their large exposure to overseas migration as a source of housing demand, along with greater exposure to the downturn in foreign students, stretched housing affordability and already low rental yields are likely to reduce further on the back of rising vacancy rates and lower rents," he said“
“Robert Klaric, the founder and CEO of The Property Expert International, was interviewed by Sky News whereby he claimed that “virtually, across the board, we’re seeing around a 10% correction to our market already in the last six-week period”.
Klaric also forecast that we are “likely to see a 10 or 20 per cent reduction in terms of property values”:
“The negotiations have become, certainly, a big difference between the asking price and what they are purchasing the property for”…
“From a buyer’s perspective, they’re thinking well why should I buy now when, potentially, I’ll be able to get the same product a lot cheaper in the next three, six to 12 months”…
“Everyong said to me that the banks are being cautious. So you need to have strong financials, strong employment history to get the funding”. If there’s any grey area, the banks don’t have an apetite for lending at all…
“We are going to see a lot more distressed sales over the next six months”…
“At the moment the market is sinking”
It’s a view shared by SQM Research managing director, Louis Christopher, who noted that “we are very much aware of the real estate industry advising their vendors that the prices achieved in February and January are no longer achievable now:
“I’m hearing anecdotal reports of the banks cutting new lending”…
“It will be very interesting to see when we get to August. Will the banks roll over that moratorium [on mortgage repayments] or will they start calling in loans”…
“These are very difficult days for property investors. We are getting zero net migration. So we are looking at a surplus of stock”.
“On top of that, because short-term arrivals are zilch, it means a whole bunch of Airbnb properties have zero tenants in them right now, so those property owners are looking to move those Airbnb into the long-term leasing market creating an additional oversupply”.”
Maybe Aussies should follow the cue to buy houses and land overseas? Cheap as chips surf beach properties in Indonesia, France, Portugal and Spain.
Properties will increase in price (inflated?). Money will continue to be printed (decreased in value?)... so buy land? And more land?
Makes sense. All the areas where prices got way ahead of inflation and/or wage increases.
I've heard from a few people now that RE agents are telling them sales in acreage areas are hot at the moment. As in, time spent listed has suddenly dropped and sellers are getting what they ask for, no negotiation needed. The anecdotal evidence seems to be (1) nobody wants to be trapped in a city when the next crisis hits and (2) remote working - for those who can - has finally become a reality. So why pay/deal with big city life when you can have the lifestyle most of us actually want for half the price and a 1/4 of the stress!?
There’s a lot of reasons people might choose to sell a house but........https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1302962827364237313?s=20
Housing demand to collapse as population growth stops, biggest fall since WW1
Inner city rents to fall as no international students
What Sustainable Australia (who?) couldn't achieve at the ballot box, has been delivered by a pandemic. As the end of the Bruce Dawe poem goes, "the earth exhales".
Stunt called this about ten months ago. Surfers Paradise and Port Macquarie one and two for property transactions this year . Beating Melbourne !
I knew it was fckn crowded !
Just looked at my local estate on realestate.com and for the first time ever there is no land for sale (only one block under contract) and the cheapest house is now $620K (is cheaper but there already under contract or different estate)
Feel so lucky, i bought my place in 2007 for $165K
And so much houses under contract or offer too, crazy.
No houses under a mil in my suburb anymore and anything with a sliver of ocean view goes for well north of that. Same too anything over the 900m threshhold with developers scooping all them up.
Hard to believe the degree of change in just twelve months.
2021 saw the highest amount on new housing development approvals in 21 years.
Demand pushed up house prices and immigration obviously has FA to do with it.
The rich get richer and poor get kicked further along the wealth gap.
Luckily live on a arche block 3 mins from CBD with sea views...We won't be going any where fast
You can understand the regional increase too many areas, but even cites have had decent increases.
It's crazy and hard to get your head around it, it's the opposite of what many expected with the uncertainty of Covid
And yeah immigration is currently out of the picture.
There are suburbs in Melbourne where property prices rose $1800 a day last month.
Houses on the great ocean road currently going for up to 50% more than mid point of asking range. No bullshit. It’s done crazy especially since Xmas. How good is Australia?
Inspected a house in Anglesea recently that was listed just under $1.3m that when pressed the agent said would have sold for under $800k less than 2 years ago, it was a small shitbox on a small block with rotted timber everywhere. One of many examples I could list here.
Hey WOL - immigration *kind of* has to do with it. Not immigration per se, but returning overseas Australian nationals. There's been over 500,000 of them between March 2020 and January 2021, and probably a further 300,000+ per year. This is actually higher than what our immigration intake was in the years prior to 2020 (straight inflows, but also inflows - outflows)
Now the theory goes, many of these people will need somewhere to live = demand.
It's actually a higher demand (numbers of raw people) than before...
Also, it means when you read an article that says there are 40,000 Australians overseas waiting to return... you are being fed stale media chips that they have been using for months now. Simply adding the NSW + Vic + QLD intake would have chomped through that number many months ago.
I did a post on this in one of the threads with the numbers. Bottom line is massive inflow of people, no/little outflow.
(We've also saved our overseas holiday money and all bought LandCruisers...)
So it's demand + people realise the coast is a better place to live. Can't complain, a new apprenticeship in the family too, to boot!
GS: there's been some very ordinary TQ 90's places gone for the 1.1 to 1.2Mil mark recently. Pride St block auctioned at 2.7mil!
Hmmm good point if those figures are true.
Not sure what the current capacity is, but up until late last year they only had capacity for 4,000 people per week to enter Aussie quarantine. So in say ten months maybe 200k entries, maybe the other 300k didn't quarantine, or there are some porky pies around the place.
I'm quoting the expert in the article linked in my other thread, she mentioned the 500,000 number
Wherever that post is
Anyway a great time to be in the trades
It was on p67 of the Covid forecaster
Here it is again:
Curious corona number crunching:
Still 18,000 Australians trying to get home
About 1/3 of the way down, Vic to lift to 1310 a week, NSW to lift to 3010 a week, QLD to 1000 a week. Wait, what? 52 weeks of that kind of flow is 276,000 per year - surely the 18,000 would be home if we were going even at half that rate?
So there's still 39,000 trying to get home? When there were 18,000 before? OK.
"More than 450,000 Australian citizens or permanent residents have returned since March 13 last year,"
So there's been a lot more Australian citizens/residents coming home than those '20K, or 40K waiting to get back' articles have implied. Checking emigration figures:
2019 emigration: "298,200 overseas migrant departures, which was 8,900 more than during 2018." - so there is certainly a large amount of Australian citizens overseas, to come home.
At 450,000 from March 20 to Jan 21, and a flow rate in NSW/Vic/QLD alone of 276,000 p/y now, we're looking at about 3% or more population increase with no/very few emigrating over the two years. This might explain a bit of the real estate pricing boom. 'Overload forecaster' indeed. ABS states
"Overseas migration to and from Australia in 2019, resulted in a net increase to Australia's population of 239,600 people:"
So we're actually running at a higher rate than this with Aussie citizens coming home! I do wonder how many % are coming from well paid finance jobs with cash for a house...
abc link with 450,000 quote has now been 404'd lol
OK cheers for the follow up VJ. Some interesting stats.
I know a bunch of expats that came back in the beginning of the pandemic have long since gone back OS. In the end returning residents have replaced new immigrants (and probably been in greater numbers), however there appears to be a demographic move here. lots of city folk acquiring/moving to regional areas, doesn't really explain why city house prices would go up. It does account for lack of properties/houses in some regional areas.
"I guess there is a political aspect, but it's more a wax off thread and has become quite relevant again, it's a cool thread because its quite archival in relation to what house prices were, and interesting to look back and compare etc."
"Remember when Pauline Hanson said Australia was going to be swamped by Asians......and everyone took the piss out of her.
In fact they still do over that comment, obviously blind to the reality unfolding before their eyes.
In fact if it wasn't for the outrageous scale of net migration to Australia of all hues of nationality and race acting as a dilution , then the outlandish influx of Chinese would be even more apparent.
Australia is not China."
sudden and substantial price increases in my neck of the woods too, definitely a covid factor. Established farms, easy 30% increase in last 4-5 months. Then a vacant block of land up the road, 2 acres, stunning views, bought about 20 months ago for $200K, sold 2 months ago for $400K. Not me unfortunately, but someone got a nice profit in short time. Things are selling very quick too. Neighbours place went on market and under contract within the week.
No worries, Jamyardy. Agree with the demographic move. Maybe factor in the amount of stimulus/protection of businesses/jobs/rent/etc? I know as soon as super could be accessed, some went out and bought a car, 4wd etc... We are doing QE now as well.
If ABC took that link down, they may have done so for inaccuracy in what the expert said. Just tried the wayback machine and got a glimpse of the page for a second, then it went down, so I can't link its text.
OK some other headlines on this -
Nov 27 '20- 36,000 remain stranded overseas
Sept 17 '20
25,000 stranded overseas given hope
9 July '20
About 70,000 have returned
1 April '20
More than 5000 quarantined
Here's a curve ball:
7 Jan 2021:
More flying out than coming in
(magic 40,000 number mentioned as well for those registered to return)
(Data in graph suggests inbound 16, 19, 25, 20, 16, 15, 23K over April to October 20 - 134K over 7 months. This is better, and still currently published, than the 450K of the former link.)
Is Blowin really already in Indo?
19 June '20
hotel quarantine Numbers crack 60,000 people
I cannot make head nor tail of it. Except to say that it is unlikely there is a constant 30 to 40K people waiting to return to Australia, unless there is constant back and forth travel with large numbers of people. This one really is a job for TBB.
What would you make of this TBB?
The only other explanation for why the number Aussies trying to get home keeps stagnant or is increasing in some cases, could be that the figures quoted in different months are of those that have "registered" as wanting to return. There must be hundreds of thousands of Aussies permanently living overseas, and some just don't (didn't) want to come home ... until circumstances changed (work ceased, their particular country may be going in and out of lockdown on a regular basis, compassionate reasons etc), so each month even though many return, there could well be many more newly registering aussies joining the que. As we approach the inaugural anniversary of closing the border, I assume some reporter will compile what has actually occurred over the first 12 months of this pandemic with respect to net people movements in and out of the country plus all the consequential changes that have occurred, such as demand for housing and its increased pricing.
This side is ridiculous as well VJ (Morn Pen). Obviously you got your more affluent suburbs but the others that offer first home owners there ‘in’ is bonkers. What things are selling for and what they’re actually worth is just getting further and further apart.
Its becoming out of reach for numerous people that have grown up around the parts which is a shame.
Kinda off topic but I’ve always pondered some sort of negotiation where people who lived in the area X amout can have first dibbs or some subsidy haha. It just seems wrong that you can’t afford to live where you grew up because people want a holiday house. I dont think its gentrification but I know its fucked..
Very off topic now but as being in a trade (carpenter) it interesting that we we were fines through lockdown but material wise, things are slowing down. Potentially alarming on some more than others.
Disingenuous to suggest that the preceding decade plus of mass immigration hasn’t left a resonance and cultural impact upon the way Australians view real estate as both an investment vehicle and a pressing concern to be confronted for those who desire to own a home . The latter being the vast majority of people.
If you believe that fire hosing hundreds of thousands of permanent and millions of temporary immigrants into the demand side of the housing “ market “ for the best part of living memory hasn’t cemented an urgency to secure housing and an intractable expectation for capital appreciation into the Australian community then you’re a fckn dmb cnt.
The fire hose of immigration demand has been temporarily replaced by returning expats and the perilously founded housing Ponzi scheme again underwritten by a desperate government with near zero interest rates, frozen mortgages, a banking sector hiding and absorbing defaults, freefall to any and all means to insecure lending practices including early access to super at 95 percent LTV and what do you have.......?
You have a government crossing it’s fingers and toes, hoping to fall over the electoral line before the house of cards implodes. The house is betting on a return to the mass immigration Ponzi scheme but the Ponzi also pushes down the wages which allow for an increase in the amount of debt available necessary to generate the ever increasing price rises essential to every pyramid scheme in the history of the world.
My call - and I say this from a place of residential ownership security- is that the whole thing is melting upwards into ......?
All I know is this - falling wages won’t secure rising house prices. QE and stimulus has kept the asset prices raising but how much of this is actually falling into the wallets of punters these days ? Reality has been kicked down the road.
As far as I’m personally concerned: increasing house prices can get fckd. All it does is attract more cnts to the town I’m living in and everything which makes this place good is lessened, fckd over or kicked to the kerb. Rates go up, locals are forced to leave and replaced by city cnts with a shit city mindset. Beaches, infrastructure and fishing reefs are more crowded and pressured. Less fish, less waves , more cnts. Paper profits on unsold homes are meaningless.
I have been talking to a mate who lives at ocean shores , he has about 4 acres and had a young labourer helping him maintain the property as well as renovations. He has lost this guy as demand for labor has increased with the wealthy moving in to area and labor, cleaning, housekeeping jobs are getting top dollar as the people doing these jobs get pushed out of the surrounding areas and workers are scarce . It’s a good position for some to be in if they can afford the rent or willing to travel. Would people putting their money into real estate rather than stocks at the moment have anything to do with price increases ? I wouldn’t have a clue how stock market is traveling.
on the money Blowin cause thats the whole problem now, every coastal town is eperiencing the same pressure ,gawd help the first home buyers cause it will get tougher .
"the whole thing is melting upwards into ......?"
Yes, it's got to the stage where it's more of a threat than a bonus.
When this sucker reverts-to-mean, it's going to be a tale for the ages