House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
@freeride , I remember seeing a photo of the Abrolhos decades ago , it was a right and looked pretty dam good , I heard back then only the fishermen who worked the area could have shacks there but closed to anyone else , was that true ?
not sure if that still stands.
Shark at blueholes this morning, 1 guy got chased in and was flipping out.
Supafreak....I have surfed out in those islands and yes there is excellent surf there...a couple of world class rights...but you have to be in the know to get out there and stay....it's cray/Lobster central.....
FR , when it comes to comparing house prices/real estate and the condition of the economies .....it's apples and oranges.....in the GFC , the USA Govt bailed out the banks for about $800B...and tried the trickle down formula which didn't work.....now we talk in Trillions .......over $30 T has been thrown at the pandemic .....just so we can survive......we will need another $30T to be used to stimulate the economies.........where are the $'s coming from.....and why everytime the big capitalist Co's fuck it up....Govts s have to print $'s to save them.......so the World is currently awash with money.....what will be the consequences of creating the biggest printing of $'s and debt in World history?
Brutus, it won't end well....one day there has to be a trigger for the introduction of the "New world Order" as mentioned in the bible. It will be a monetary world order not a military one, although a military will evolve from it. My feelings are society will eventually morph into two...the globally compliant modernist tech heads (the blue pill) and the small scale self sufficient farmers who will reject the new order (the red pill).
Are we down to relying on god?
Truely we are screwed
Brutus you talk about the greatest debt in world history.
The question is, if Australia is creating and spending its own money, who does it need to pay back?
Many (i.e. proponents of Modern Monetary Theory) would say it's not a debt at all.
So it seems that sovereign governments can prop up as much as they want for as long as they want.
The old wisdom was that this would trigger post WW2 Germany or 90s Zimbabwean hyperinflation but this only seems to occur when a lack of productive supply meets an excess demand from cash.
How this relates to real estate prices I have no idea apart from there doesn't look like being an economic correction due to government bail outs.
Don't encourage the ridiculous conspiracy theories Guy.
It works like this. Those with assets become richer. Those who don’t become poorer.
"Brutus you talk about the greatest debt in world history"................. What debt? Who is this debt owed to? All the money Scomo got the reserve bank to print? That debt? Press a button. Debt gone. Simple.
Oh yes Guy always Smiley thanks...I AM......and you may be ...but I wont be.
I think debt VS GDP is the issue..America is currently at around 129% debt to GDP which will be impossible to control or get out of, especially if you have Bidens etc who like to start expensive wars. He's hassling 4 countries at once at present..Go Joe..
Australia is around 35% in debt to annual output but this will rise to about 43% after the pandemic numbers drop so we are doing OK considering what we've been through. We have to stop asking the Govt for handouts so we can get on with it and pay back the debt probably owed to Aussie super funds. We can get out of this but many others wont and if Europe collapses again it'll be ugly...So if you can find one, buy a humble patch and live well and as self sufficient as possible. Most of you are smart enough to not leave yourselves vulnerable if you try.
He’s not the messiah he’s just a naughty boy ~ now go away
"America is currently at around 129% [government] debt to GDP which will be impossible to control or get out of"
I don't understand why they need to get out of it.
Unlike the US debt which is held externally Japans debt largely held internally but changing is over 200% GDP well beyond the recovery made by the UK (greatest ever) back in the day.
Japan has been described rightly so as a bug in search of a windscreen however so far its dodged the windscreen.
Forget all the "it doesn't matter" when confidence evaporates its game over.
Check this thing out....pretty cool
This being a housing thread, I'm encouraging you all to buy one somewhere if you haven't already....it doesn't have to be the greatest house or even right near the beach, but a little place with a yard to feed yourself is a great feeling and even if you don't want to live there now, you can rent it out for a fair price and have it paid off while you work elsewhere. This way, you will always have somewhere to go if you need it and not have to rely on Coles and Woolies to feed you if there is ever a crisis. I hear many people say "I cant afford one", and if you think like that, consider a refugee, comes here on a boat, gets a laboring job or picks fruit, works his arse off for a couple of years, never complains, he buys nothing and has no debt, next thing you know he's bought a house, only been here two years.....Lots of those stories around and they are pretty inspiring....If the global ever crashes big time, you'll always be able to figure out a way to keep the dirt under your feet, as long as your standing on a bit you call home.
I couldn't help myself and contacted the realestate down Portland Vic on two very cheap blocks during the week $43K & $55k (ive know the area is dirt cheap for a years, as is a few other areas in SA etc)
Basically said what's the deal, asked about building restrictions and access to water/septic, electricity.
As expected both blocks have issues the $43k one doesn't have access to mains sewerage which is way up the road and council wont allow septic, so its basically unbuildable (has a few metres zoned a flood plain too)
Other block septic is a little bit away and electricity poles down the end of the street, so cost you a shit load to get access to both, you would need to get all the neighbours to chuck in.
They said they have had over one hundred enquires for the 43k block (seen it for sale for a while)
Anyway it was good just to get it out of my head and know and not think fuck i wish i had bought a 43Kblock a few km from some very rare fickle long rights not to mention great fishing area.
An onsite septic & wastewater system needs 400sq metres of spare land/lawn to be legal for the underground drip line system, so you need a reasonable sized block...When council goes away happy you can sneak a few fruit trees in between the underground lines.
Both blocks over 400m2 about 500m2-600m2 but each, but im pretty sure different local councils have different regulations on septics, when i asked the realestate if putting on a septic system was possible they said that they were certain council wouldn't allow it.
So when Real estate agents don't even say they don't know or you are best to ask council etc, you can be pretty sure it's not possible.
Another day, another article on Victoria’s crazy coastal price growth and Melburnians fleeing the city. Still a long long way to go to reach NSW north/south coast prices though (even most of the MP does).
I’ve had my eye on Portland for a few years Indo too. 10% growth for the last 12 months, 25% over last 3 years so that dream is almost over. I think there would be a lot of people buying a cheap house/block as an insurance policy to escape another lockdown
If god is real then the real estate agent is one serious test of my will to live.
Start a church Bonza then you can get all the tax free income and charitable donations you want. You’ll own your own mansion within 10 years.
It’s gods will for you to prosper.
"Forget all the "it doesn't matter" when confidence evaporates its game over."
markets, any market, are all about confidence, something the mmt proponents totally overlook...
japan is a unique case though, such a hgh standard of living, such a diligent people, norms of hard work and contact hours few, if any, country could match, high tech., an established and well deserved place in the world manufacturing landscape...
what ever happens, japan will be ok, which is what makes them such a poor example for the harmlessness of just printing more money...
history and japan's make up make for unrealistic comparisons
their house market though...
now there's something to compare oz to!
ie. phenomenal growth through a period of good times, only for values to be slashed in half when circumstances change...
Syppo, how are Greenspan and Bernanke wrong?
all this free debt (lets face it - its free - it won't be paid back) has lead to people investing (spending) ONLY on houses.
How will MMT free money differ from the current model? As in how will this model combat inequality?
and why won't / can't this model be gamed?
Optimist said "Brutus, it won't end well....one day there has to be a trigger for the introduction of the "New world Order" as mentioned in the bible"
......is it time for the ark yet?
Cant be far off around here after all this rain.
haven't they been wrong on just about everything up to this point andym?
I'm being facetious
(but, didn't greenspan recently admit to being terribly wrong about some pretty big calls?)
I'll give it a read
(putting my post modernist 'everyone is biased' to the side)
Pasted below in case of paywall
There’s no housing affordability crisis in the Canberra Bubble™. Our 227 federal politicians have a stake in 480 properties, according to back of the coaster calculations by Strewth. This includes residential homes, second homes, holiday homes, investments, farms and commercial buildings, but doesn’t include anything owned by their partners/spouses. If we modestly assume each has a value of $700,000 — well below the national house price average of $852k — that’s $336m tied up in the market. Nearly 61 per cent of MPs own more than one property, with many opting to have a house in their electorate and another apartment in the ACT. Eighteen pollies own nothing. Thirty three have a portfolio of four or more. Top of the list is Northern Territory Country Liberal senator Sam McMahon, who has a whopping 11 properties — a residential home in Katherine, plus investments in Palmerston, Noosa, Gillen, Alice Springs, Douglas, Arizona in America and Gili Gede island in Lombok, Indonesia. Liberal assistant minister Nola Marino comes in second with seven properties in Harvey and Myalup, WA, mainly dairy farms. Industry Minister Karen Andrews (QLD), Labor backbencher Tony Zappia (SA) and Liberal backbencher Ian Goodenough (WA) have an interest in six properties. Goodenough did own seven but recently sold his Yarralumla, ACT, house. His West Australian holdings include a commercial storage unit in Currambine, a Belmont warehouse leased to an engineer in the oil and gas industry, and a Red Gully rural property that’s “essentially a hobby farm with an olive grove and a few bee hives”. Mehreen Faruqi owns the most among the Greens, with four pieces of real estate including a 500sq m land parcel in Lahore, Pakistan. Opposition Leader AnthonyAlbanese also has four, three houses in his Sydney inner-west seat and a unit in Canberra; while Prime Minister Scott Morrison just has the single Sutherland Shire family home. Several jet-setting pollies also have holdings overseas. On-leave Defence Minister Linda Reynolds has a holiday home in Bali; Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek has an investment in Ljubljana, Solvenia; Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells in Umbria, Italy; and Labor backbencher Steve Georganas has a piece of land in Greece.
gave that article a good go andym
I think bernanke and greenspan were, ...what those in the business call... 'quoted out of context'...
that article raises more questions than it answers. ...many questions that were raised (but never answered...) in facto's jacobin article, a very good article it pains me to say, that raised many many valid points and questions...
why dont people just debate stuff head to head these days?
everyone seems to just chat away, and belittle each other, from within their bubbles (professionals im referring to this time).
ie. why don't the jordan peterson haters go head to head with him?
the pro immigration domain peddlers head to head with macrobusiness?
the pro mmt-ers with traditional economists?
'the outsiders' crew head to head with abc inbreds?
is modern society that fucked up we don't even entertain the other side anymore?
'social media' even got the political classes bubbled up beyond civility?
...seems to be half of the problem of contemporary politics...
"all this free debt (lets face it - its free - it won't be paid back) has lead to people investing (spending) ONLY on houses.
and why won't / can't this model be gamed?"
on all points!
Well Bonza, It seems the Labor leader is much more materialistic than the one house Prime Minister...That's funny...really really funny......That data will rain on a few judgmental parades.
"Opposition Leader AnthonyAlbanese also has four, three houses in his Sydney inner-west seat and a unit in Canberra; while Prime Minister Scott Morrison just has the single Sutherland Shire family home."
That is surprising that Scomo only owns the one house, nothing wrong with owning real estate though if you can, id have a few house in Australia if i could(or was willing to take on the debt)
I noticed they also list overseas real-estate, so Scomo doesn't even have a pad in Hawaii?
properties held in family trusts and companies??
optimist re superfunds comment.
sf must be rolled over to a sovereign fund.
no need for $billions of dollars wasted on bs super adverts every year.
read an article years ago that annual expenditure of combined super funds is billions of dollars on running costs.
ex employees could be paid full wage for 12mths then sep package...NOT the ceo and board of directors.
the monies saved would pay for infrastucture eg toilets at every oz surf spot.
have mentioned this bfore but oz sf are a ponzi scheme set up to employ the entitled ruleing classes rellies and mates (sheilas), oh and advertiseing (farty simmo) and media etc.
" 'the outsiders' crew head to head with abc inbreds?
is modern society that fucked up we don't even entertain the other side anymore? "
i can't help but find the irony in this part of your post... unless abc inbreds is a program i just haven't seen yet? i think people are just defeated because almost everyone has their bias and has dug into their position and no amount of rational debate is going to change it
well there is irony synchrological
but what bias would you be referring to?
my bias towards the abc inbreds? who I generally love btw, ...but they do all have a certain 'character' about them...
ha, perception is the new reality mate, calling one mob "crew" & one mob "inbreds" infers bias whether it's there or not
"i think people are just defeated because almost everyone has their bias and has dug into their position and no amount of rational debate is going to change it"
geez thats bleak...
but I totally disagree, I think for people in the political and media classes this may well be the case. but the day to day people I know and meet have a broad range of views on a broad range of issues
but yes they too display a deep cyncism about 'the greenies', 'the leftys', 'the woke', 'the commies' (which has seen a very interesting resurgance...), and 'the miners', 'the patriots', 'rwnj's', 'freedum fighters', and on and on...
I think what we are living in, is a time where the political and media class have totally failed in their roles, and as a result, the people. as a professional career politician mentality games the system with their miserable cynical (tribal) assumptions...
fair point, ...but, despite my love ...the abc 'character' deserves to be bagged...
sorry I can't help it
maybe a bit bleak, but perhaps tainted by some of the posters on this forum (which is pretty much my only 'social media' exposure)...
i find this place pretty much unreadable when the big guns on both sides of the (and i use the word loosely) debate are firing their monotonous virtual canons at each other
"I think what we are living in, is a time where the political and media class have totally failed in their roles, and as a result, the people. as a professional career politician mentality games the system with their miserable cynical (tribal) assumptions..."
couldn't agree more with this
"The day to day people I know and meet have a broad range of views on a broad range of issues..."
"but yes they too display a deep cyncism about 'the greenies', 'the leftys', 'the woke', 'the commies' (which has seen a very interesting resurgance...), and 'the miners', 'the patriots', 'rwnj's', 'freedum fighters', and on and on..."
"...media class have totally failed in their roles..."
but you're one of the biggest peddlers facto...
of the 'media regurgitated propaganda'
both sides are as bad as each other
"#PerceptionAin'tReality" ...well that's not what your guiding theory says...
you're all over the shop ...maybe you are snuffed out smurf....