House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
That's what I'm doing right now Stu.
Wondering if nows the time or wait a while....as does anyone in this position with the housing situation as it is.
I've been looking at house prices with a viewpoint of what I think they are worth , then contrasting it with the actual asking prices and wondering which of us is fooling ourselves.
Maybe i am and as someone says previously they are worth what someone is willing to pay.
This stance has just added $15K to the price of a house ( home) that I've got my eye on and that my desire for has just skyrocketed due to the recent interest of another party - as it does I guess.
Now I may be facing a bidding war that I'll be broken hearted to lose but that I can't really enter into with too much enthusiasm due to my belief that the place is already overvalued.
Nice place . 35 years old though.
blindboy commented Sunday, 18 Dec 2016 at 11:54am
Pet hate? Listening to talk of real estate prices in the surf. Why not just tattoo dickhead on your forehead?
Why is it any different to talking real estate on a surf forum
Blowing, watch the agents making up another interested party once your heart is in it. Not saying it's not the case but be warned.
If the bubble really is going to burst soon, great time to sell right now, rent for a while and buy back in when the bubble has burst.
There is a very big elephant in the room in regards to Coastal real estate , sea level rise.
"I know some cheap places on the central coast just above the high tide line and by the lakes... insurers are pulling out but don't let that phase you,"
Insurers won't insure property that is high risk to flooding or extreme ocean erosion , and with the sea level rise models showing we are losing our beaches at a very quick rate, and the next 30 years shows , the whole of Australia's coast being inundated , especially low lying properties and coasts where seal level will wipe out beaches and housing.
There are already areas that insurance Co's refuse to insure so that you cannot have a bank loan , which means that coastal real estate bubble is probably in its last days , peaking now , so get ready for an eventual market crash , as the real estate will be too high risk.
A couple of years ago there was an investigation into negative gearing and first home loans , it was shown that these factors increased the price by about 20% .
I think it's a low chance of correction. Maybe 15% chance. I think real estate prices make sense in terms of capital markets and money supply but not average income.
I also think that threat of a significant downturn will be addressed in govt policy very quickly. There's too much economic wealth tied up in property to let it slip.
So while overvalued in normal terms I'd put chance of real correction as low
Been there before MK1.
My problem previously was not being aware that real estate agents are even more sinister than I'd believed possible.
Which is pretty fucking sinister.
Article was written by David Llewellyen-Smith originally on Acting Man no connection to Zero Hedge.
He also has a blog in Australia 'Macrobusiness' which cuts the BS and reports on the facts of Aust economy.
" All these people who think they are geniuses and now millionaire's because they bought a house" kind of an unfair comment i reckon. unless you have someone specific in mind...
Very general comment to my area Northern Beaches who bought in around 2011-2012 not specific people but a 'group of persons' usually talking real estate in the surf or the boat ramp or at the BBQ when all ya want to do is talk crap.
Agree with BB and Stu... just want my kids to have the chances I had as they have eroded for our youth unless your parents are going to chip in and this is not fair or the way it should be - the finance sector geared up for the 1% and we are just pawns.
Good read if you are into it...'Mobs, Messiahs and Markets', by William Bonner and Lila Rajiva
US have raised interest rates it is time for Australia to lose it's AAA rating and interest rate increases from here on...wait and see the next 1/4 figures will Turdstill come out with a classic line 'the recession we had to have' and actually create policy that helped Aust or will it be more former banking head BS and property market protection.
Sharkman that's what I was alluding to. The sea level rises are a way off yet but the insurers are already thinking in advance as the storm damage become more consistent. I know one place on the cenny coast that gets salt water running down the gutters every big high tide. Only 1 insurer still insuring that area now.
You can stick talking real estate in the surf in your arse.
But on a thread called House Prices......
I'm asking anyone with a heartbeat their opinion on this topic as it's extremely relevant to my personal situation right now and the Swellnet forums are known to harbour a set of diverse and knowledgable opinions . Great resource really.
Fact : I've never owned a house before. Not one with electricity and running water anyway.
I am currently selling land though Indo, so I've definitely been thinking of the option you suggested .
No-one should doubt (1.) negative gearing combined with (2.) 50% discount on CGT on investment together with (3.) the ability of SMSFs to borrow money to invest have been primary causes in the housing bubble. If in any doubt check the introduction dates of (2.) and (3.) with historical price data.
We can all thank John Howard for this.
Our treasurer Scot Morrison held and executive position with the Property Council of Australia before entering politics. Says something about the government's do nothing policy position.
"I also think that threat of a significant downturn will be addressed in govt policy very quickly. There's too much economic wealth tied up in property to let it slip."
Very little doubt of this but at what stage does it become out of control?
blowin are you looking for your own place or an investment currently?
It's not a allowed to get out of control. The minute they realise there is an issue the fhog will triple, rba rates will drop, foreign lending be relaxed, etc. So the chance of a significant collapse is pretty low in my book (not 0 though). If I was a betting man I'd bet on the overflow of Sydney and Melbourne driving up regional prices. Just don't buy near the high tide mark.
If you do want to get in the market but concerned about a crash it's best to stay in the cheaper end. The high end had the biggest gains and most room to fall obviously
" If I was a betting man I'd bet on the overflow of Sydney and Melbourne driving up regional prices. "
Which is exactly what is happening. Long as the govt maintains the existing status quo re: negative gearing, CGT and the very high immigration into the cities there is very little chance of a major correction. Interest rates are at record lows all around the world and with low aggregate demand and sluggish growth the chances of them rising again quickly are slim.
MK1 , what happened to the real estate price when the insurers stopped insuring?
Where I live they have been trying to sell a golf course for 3 years , no-one even interested and the rumor is that it will be under sea water by 2050 , and they are currently building a big housing project next to the golf course , been trying to convince a mate that its a bad investment , it's just the developers going hell for leather ,trying to make as much as they can.
A lot of people are probably not aware that all the recent climate data , including sea level rise , shows accelerating change , and 2100 computer models are now valid for 205-60 , which shows carnage on all Australian Coasts !!
Buying a home Geoffrey.
Sharkman, they are pulling out. There is 1 left insuring the whole town now and one other that will for about 15x normal premium. But as long as that one is still there, everyone is rolling on! Watch this space.
@floyd John Howard also deregulated the finance and banking system.
And made the majority of Australian's fear the 'boat people' but let hundreds of thousands through the front door.
They were the biggest spending Government of our time. Any monkey could have created a surplus with what was delivered to the Australian economy in the Howard era.
Negative gearing has been in way before Howard. Anyway it's not really relevant given the current house prices. As said above there are good prices outside of Sydney and Melbourne. There is no bust unless the owners loose their jobs. Rates won't go up significantly for at least five years. If you don't sell you don't lose.
best of luck blowin, hope u find something suitable. if your struggling and need some yield increasing ideas (if thats something your willing to do) lemme know id be happy to help.
The wheels might fall off the plan to get the place I'm interested in .
If that happens I'd be keen to hear some of your ideas.
Also property normally goes up in increasing interest rates cycle due to the inflation. You just have to hang on. Who knows after this decade of easy cash though
Blowin.... It really depends on what you want.... do you want to buy a bargaining chip? Do you want to buy a HOME?.... If it's a home you want, how old are you? Where do you want to live? Where do you picture yourself being happy? how much do you have for a deposit? What sort of work do you do? All of these things and more have to be taken into consideration... By the vibe, I'd take it you want to "east coast" it..... Most of it is shot to bits , man..... Qld is fucked... Maybe Bundaberg, with boat trips to Frazer to surf, plus small east swells on the mainland...... Nsw, maybe try Nambucca heads, valla beach thru to SW rocks........ Can still pick up a house around 300k or a touch more. 2br little house in Nambucca for 275k .... And a 3br brick in sw rocks for 320k, sure you could talk it down to 305k..... Now as far as east coast goes, thats cheap for a house... But hey, is there your type of work around there? Heaps of waves around there... 1/2 hour drive Nam' to coffs..... Fair bit of work in coffs..... Some sydney siders would give a left nut to only have a 1/2 country drive commute to work..
not a prob mate. i also completely agree with everything sheepdog just said.
be patient blowin. there's only one thing that matters buying a house.....dont pay too much.
remember...for every lost bargain theres always a better one just around the corner.
lose the heart strings. the agent is always onto this.
Cheers fellas, appreciate the thoughts.
Sheepdog, that's a good line of reasoning ,one that I've already been through. I'm walking away from my existing life so a change is going down and a small coastal town would be a nice place to start. Maybe even a nice place to finish if you know what I mean.
The part of the world you're describing sounds cool but I've already found somewhere, it's just deciding whether to commit or not.
Seems like that decision was made when the counter offers from another party started today.
Which fucks up Happyass' wise words.....I'm being kicked from pillar to post cause of the emotional attachement and the rush, rush ,rush.
emotional attachment and rush rush rush is exactly the agents game.
for me, a house is a bunch of bricks that someone else threw together. as they say, a home is what you make it.
good luck blowin. im sure it'll work out whichever way you jump.
Firstly, cheers, Geoff.... Secondly, blowin, if you can handle a steamer, my region is super cheap... We bought a 2br house one block back from the beach, ocean views ( nothing spectacular - just looking down the street, but you can see the swell) for less than 200k... I wont say where exactly, but it's somewhere between the vicco border and Kingston S.E.. The problem here is work... I'm ok coz I gone back to selling advertising for the family business... There is some work around Mt gambier, Robe, Millicent.. Ive heard on the grapevine a wood laminate business is relocating to near Millicent, gonna have 80 full time jobs.... Millicent btw is only 20 minutes inland.... Never seen houses so cheap.... Cool little town too.... When my ocean days are done, we may retire there.
If Vicco is your go, I'd look around Wonthaggi.... Bargains there..... Waves..... Close to motor bike island too.... And not far to Melbourne, imo the best mainland city- food, footy, culture..
whats the surf like there SD, no need for details, just general seasonal trends.
Come on down to the MP blowin.
It's freezing over winter and swells too big for the beachies and is packed and two foot over summer but the winery's and cafes are to dieeee for darling
Haha, I'll be looking out for you at the post office a Port Macdonell sheepy, I'll alert the lads as to who there new boy in town is, such a small world isn't it, might see you at the new lefthander. :-)))))))))))))
Like Portland cheap for a lot of good reasons, actually better reasons.
The Hako wrote "Haha, I'll be looking out for you at the post office a Port Macdonell sheepy, I'll alert the lads as to who there new boy in town is, such a small world isn't it, might see you at the new lefthander. "
close but no cigar...... lol...... Keep heading west..... But i do call in to stinky town occaisonally..... Shit they gotta do something about that rotting sea grass next to the rock wall there.... Damn near threw up when we ordered fish n chips down at the esplanade...
This "new lefthander"? Don't be a cunt...... Go on..... Talk..... lol...
FR, where I am is really protected, a tucked in corner (clue hak lol)..... In regards to this region, just look at the Warrnambool report.... Very windy here..... There's a freekn hot right where hak was talking about.... But ya gotta catch it on the less windy days... Where I am is just a beachy..... A lonely fly blown beachy..... Well there is a reef, but its a freekn prick of a walk coz I dont have a 4wd..... Plus my old body is getting to the stage of just flappin around in fun peelers......
You happy down there?
Happier than Coolum?
Maaaan I miss my friends in Coolum :( 2 decades is hard to replace.... Still in FULL ON contact via Facebook , sms etc.... Head up once a year.... But I don't miss what Coolum has become.... We had her as a beautiful young lady, Steve.... Now she's a dressed up ageing milf with too much slap.. All our friends are under the pump up there just to make ends meet.... The vibe in the surf is terrible..... towards the end of my time there, we all surfed up at middle reef thru to stumers... But even that started getting super crowded..... So we walked into Enviro's.... Last year I went up and my favorite bank at enviros had 15 guys on it at 5am.... Power walkers strutting up the beach, clubbies tearing up from coolum in their rubber ducky..... Fuckn terrible....... But, yeah, I miss my friends.... Lifelong friends....
I also miss Tassie though.... Not the cold, just the sheer beauty of the place, the mountains...
But here will do.... It's quirky..... Really nice.... When you go shopping at Millicent, you need an extra hour coz the people are so friendly and just wanna chat.... No shit.... Sorta like stepping back in time..... tassie were friendly but a bit clicky.... Here people are genuinely nice on a whole......
The surf...... Grunty..... Thats for sure.... Would've loved living here in my 30s/40s..... All long period stuff..... A few nooks for old fellas..... A few hardcore reefs.... Over Hakos way there's a bay that has a cute little "small wave" reef.... Haven't surfed it, but saw some guys on it, maybe hako, who knows..... But it was around 3 foot and just peeling off like ti tree... Some guy on a mini mal got a few really nice ones... But I reiterate, the wind here can freekn roar.... Sometimes even the offshore is ridiculous....
But yeah , happy here..... As I said last year, I think to you steve, my wife isn't well.... Unidentified auto immune disease..... Her family lives in Adelaide.. Tassie has no auto immune specialists... Adelaide does.... It's only a 4 hour run if you cane it along the koorong, plus we have family accomodation up there.... Plus were still far enough away from the inlaws that they can't just drop in for coffee bahahahahahahaha.... And my brother runs the business from Melbourne which is only 5 hours the other way....
So yeah..... I think this will be my elephants graveyard.... Very peaceful place....
Sorry, I didn;t know about your wife SD.....sounds like a good place.
Hey SD, Im into my 2nd year at Coolum having done 20 years hardtime on the Goldy, the crackheaded whorebag round the houses trashbag she is, and by comparison Coolum is a delightful firm twenty something in my eyes.
Doggo, you've been over there for a bit, yeah? Notice prices go up at all, especially when the Sydney/Melbourne price madness was hitting the media fan?
Cool little zone. Spent a fair bit of time round there and just over the border. You've even got a natural bath for your old aching bones! Unless you're further round? Nice.
Yo, spooky.... It's all relative, man..... It's all what you're used to.... Picture this - Coolum Tce, 1996 say, old qlder with superb ocean views all the way to Sunrise beach, stagger out the front door, across the road, and you're at where castros is now (no castros back then) , fall into the ocean..... 4 br, dog allowed, $150pw....... Worked early friday to monday, 4am to 9 am..... Time and a half, sat, triple time sunday... Then 3 days off..... Just an IGA, a few shops, tight locals, pub.... No "town of seaside", no "peregian springs", Kangaroos jumping up david low way....
By 2003, with John Howards first home owners grant, dead roos, dead koalas, 2 minute locals with bmw's, boomers in lycra drinking double decafs on the esplanade bragging about bullshit, meth, broken glass on the skate ramp, towels and keys stolen off the beach, council enforcers fining us locals hundreds for taking our dogs for a run, rental house sold, bulldozed for units, had to move, prices going thru the roof, 2 br shitbox for 325pw, contractors undercutting, wages go down..... Had to take on more work for less......
So......... We bail...... Work in Tassie for 6 years.... Pay off a house and block..... Sell it.... No where near enough to consider moving back to "the qld dream", but enough to buy a house CASH on the coast between Melbourne and Adelaide.....
If you know Rhodesy, or the fergs, or Chris K, or skater Tim, or Rune, or old Tom or fraser the longboarder, you're hangn with some cool people.....
Turk.... The only thing missing here is a few extra mountains...... Very flat..... But that's nit picking.... Freekn laugh every time we head to the "big smoke" Mt Gambier..... As it comes into view , I give the wife the shits every time with my take on Monty python's 4 old men............... "Well it's a mountain to us"......... bahahahahaha
ps - been here 18 months, man...... Nah prices are fairly stable... Robe, Beachport are the priciest.... This place will boom.... Got a lot to offer... As I said some laminate mob are coming here - confirmed - 80 jobs..... Kalangadoo....
So.... There's an inside tip..... Mt gambier..... not far from Kalangadoo.... 1/2 hour to the coast..... I'd expect prices to at least remain steady if not improve..... I'd say bubble proof... Plus you're far enough away from me as to not give me the shits...... But I'll drop in for coffee now and then lol :p
Missed out on that house.
It came down to a race to get a contract signed and I'm extremely busy in a different time zone so the wheels did, in fact , fall off.
Feel totally devastated....and utterly relieved.
As always Lewis Lapham has it all historically aligned and carefully placed in context. Specifically US but not too far removed from the Australian experience.
sounds like a blessing in disguise mate. the best purchases are the ones done without a shred of emotion involved (thats not just property). just get a plan, get pre approved and keep your finger on the pulse and be ready to swoop if something appropriate comes along.
Where was it Blowy?
Blowin, there is a better one coming on the market anyway, I've been watching my local market for a couple of years and there are still some good bargains. You just need to have done your homework and jump on them immediately as they are usually only on the market for a week, generally fibro shacks in the best part of town.
Anyone recall the subterfuge and denial behind the foreign influence and impact on the property market only a couple of years ago ?
I'd say those days are over .
I remember it well, Blowin.... And if you listen to the coalition, there IS no problem still.... Apparently "supply" is still the issue as far as Turnbuckle reckons... With around 2000 properties currently on the market in and around Parramatta, I'd call bullshit on "supply" being an issue.
I'm actually in the same position as you blowin and I'm gonna wait 12 months. Wages are flat and will be for a long time to come. Personally, I see a rate rise coming at the end of the year just because the house market will overheat otherwise. The first rise will bring pain for home owners buying in at the bottom of the interest rate cycle but this will be the norm until wage growth starts again. I think RBA are only meant to monitor inflation but they've overcooked the house market as a side effect. Hence banks not giving a rats about RBA benchmark rates anymore.
At the moment Id rather buy a 40 foot yacht at half its cost instead of a house at double its cost.
I might add, agree completely with the opinions on real estate agents here. Pretty sure it's just a short licence course and then they think they are financial planners/ builders/ accountants/economists/lawyers etc the list goes on some of them are absolute sharks and no where near qualified to offer the advice that they do.
turnbull is talking supply because the govt is addicted to the housing industry keeping the economy pumping. the money tied up in australian real estate is actually scary. if it crashed like the US we would be completely fucked as a country. if he instead said "lock the gate on china" to help address the demand side; apart from pissing them off it would probably trigger an economic meltdown.
RBA dont know what they're doing anymore. overpaid and useless.
Those cheap properties in Portland are looking even better now.