Submitted by greyhound on Mon, 06/18/2012 - 18:51
while the east coast of aus has been pumping in recent weeks victoria has been pretty average swell wise. swellnet has surf coast at 2 fading to 1 feet for sat 23 june while the other main surf forcast site has it at 2/5 feet.fair difference. we shall see.
Hi Greyhound, I'm pretty confident with my call and if anything would maybe up the forecast slightly to 2ft+ on this evenings model update.
But there's no way this swell will get near 5ft and I can't see any way the swell producing system (a relatively weak front pushing through Bass Strait on Friday) will be massively upgraded over the coming days, which is what would have to happen to see a 5ft swell.
Try and aim for next Monday ;)
Oh and I totally feel for you guys!
This winter is turning out to be like last year with a lack of quality swells and dodgy winds.
The Rip Curl Pro both years saw epic waves but the season since then on both accounts has turned out well below average.
Hopefully we see some more action over the next couple of months as besides you guys scoring quality waves, it makes forecasting for Southern Australia more interesting and exciting for me!
What makes it worse is the snow hasn't really looked any good either . Although I'm feeling that in the next week or so that we'll see something . The SAM spiked strong negative a few days / close to a week ago . And usually about 10-14 days later a system can produce both . The waters startin' to get hard core as well ( especially if ya don't have one of those expensive new fandangled suits ) .!!!
" SA's Reserve Capacity "
No sympathy from me! Nothing worse that howling westerlies in Sydney and tiny waves, while we watch front after front deliver corduroy to the southern states.
Then does that mean Swelnet maybe moving its base to the Far west of SA . Coz, i reckon only them and Maybe Tas have been consistant !?
hey Greyhound, isn't a forecast for 2-5ft a bit of a copout? Is it 2ft or is it 5ft? There's a big difference, especially on the Surf Coast.
FWIW, we keep a forecast size ranges of a foot up to 4ft (ie 1-2ft, 2-3ft, 3-4ft, then two feet from 4ft up to about 12ft (ie 4-6ft, 10-12ft, then three feet up to 18ft (12-15ft, 15-18ft) and so forth.
southey - we're firmly planted in Sydney. It's by far and the best place to run a business.
That being said, a remote office at Streaky or Marion Bay wouldn't go astray.
hey thermalben. your right, forcasting 2/5 ft is a little bit odd.westerly swells can bring on these calls,but it feels like a bit of ass covering i guess. not that anyones being held accountable.why hell, who can predict the weather. twas simply something i noticed after not having to much action in recent weeks. keep up the good work.
Forecast has just been updated and I've kept Saturday exactly the same as I had it on Monday.
Interestingly the other guys have downgraded their forecast considerably and it now matches ours.
Monday is still the best day to aim for a surf so hopefully you can hook into some fun waves!
So greyhound, did you manage to get a surf in this morning? Looks like it was the best day in a couple of weeks (if not longer!).
ah thermalben. no surf for me today. i bought a sticker for the old toolbox last year. surf forever,work whenever. if only i could live by it. cant get out before work when i start at 7am. had some fun sunday morn though. next week or so looking better.