So who are you going to vote for?

" question for ya sheeps, what was the Liberal Party's primary vote, not the LNP, just the Liberal Party's? "

That doesn't really matter, does it Floyd...... They are the coaliton, and the nats fill the deputy PM role.. You are trying to split the conservative atom.... In most seats (most), where a National is running for that seat, the Libs wont run... And Vica versa... Now if the Libs were up against the Nats in every seat, you may have a point.... But they are not, because in they are a COALITION.. And the COALITION has 41.8% of th vote...... But as we all know the greens are more aligned to labor than the coaltion..... However unlike the proton libs and Neutron nats, Labor and the greens don't make up one atom, but the preference supply from the greens to Labor makes up for that.

"me still thinks you were a late disciple to the altar of policy over personality when it came to Billy"
Not at all...... Steve Bradbury....... I put it to you that a more universally liked Laboe leader would've shit it in.... My god the libs had so much stuff one could attack..... But what I must say is that as a team, Labor did really well..... They stuck tight... That accounts for the small swing their way.... They deserved that.... But their policies on coal seam gas, their matching the coalition on boat people, their ongoing support for us being in Syria, and other leaves a lot to be desired...
Their negative gearing I give a big tick to..
Broadband - tick
Education - tick
medicare - tick

Their boat people stance garnered them more votes than they rightfully deserve.

Up until the last hung parliament, probably would have agreed that a 50/ 50 parliament would be good. But as we saw useless to get legislation thru for the whole country. Windsor loved it, his electorate was gold plated. Interesting how his electorate abandoned him in this one. I would suggest that you now get minority views dictating the agenda rather than the major party view.
Looks like we in for it again ...

sheepter, you would may a good chinese historian when it comes to the unholy marriage that is the LNP.

Look at it another way sheepster ... if it could be fairly argued that the Libs, Labor and the Greens are mostly about the politics of the latte sipping city slickers and the Nats are most for country folk making direct comparisons of the primary vote of the Libs and Labor is worthy of discussion.

To always lump the metropolitan based Liberal spiv with the country cousin baking for the CWA as legit is stretching the truth more than the country mile .... and would go along way to explaining why for example FNQers like voting for the likes of the Palmers, Catters and the Hansens and not for the LNP.

"... more universally liked Labor leader ..." see, thats the trap the Libs made with Turnbull, public loved him but the poor lad couldn't scratch himself without asking permission from the ultra right ..... sheepster, the real game the public want is policy, treat the public as adults etc, ... look, as a student of the game you know this already..... policy, policy, policy

oooops talking about chinese historians. 4.15 pm update from Tones ..... the last time I pondered the Gillard hung parliament years I saw a government actively and constructively engaging the cross bench and getting record levels of legislation through both houses ...... now compare that Tones with the crash and burn approach adopted by Abbott and Turnbull and you might inform yourself. The truth is out there Tones!

Floyd - fact the Liberals and Nationals are a coalition... Get antsy if you like man..... The libs got about 30% and the nats got about 10%.... Add them together and thats about 40%..... They have an agreement.... In fact Turnball was bound to an agreement....... If he didn't have to succumb to the nats, he may well have had clear air on same sex marriage and climate change..... But what you are doing is steering away from your original question and my reply to that question...... The populace DID NOT return to labor in vast numbers like they did in 2007... Neither party has a clear mandate, and the protest vote was clearly up, pointing to discontent in the voting public... I was one of those voters... i voted Xenophon, but gave my first preference to Labor.

"more universally liked Labor leader ..." see, thats the trap the Libs made with Turnbull, public loved him but the poor lad couldn't scratch himself without asking permission from the ultra right ..... sheepster, the real game the public want is policy, treat the public as adults etc, ... look, as a student of the game you know this already..... policy, policy, policy"
.......... The public love him till they realized he was tied to agreements with Joyce..... Once again, I'll point out Labors primary vote was the second lowest in history..... If you are part of the Labor machine, Floyd, I'd suggest a quick chat with your fellow member re' not to get too cocky on 35% primary vote.... Australian voters do not like smugness.. Never have....

Can anyone tell me why the AEC tally - which you would think is the official tally - is different than Fairfax, Guardian, ABC, and just about every other site. For most of the day the AEC has had Labor with 71 seats confimed.

Who's fucked up here? The AEC public servants who can't count or the MSM journos who aren't working on Sunday?

@Stunet,

I have worked at AEC polling stations from time to time over the years and after 6pm when the polling stations close the staff are required to count and tally all first preference votes for each party. Those tallies are then phoned through to a central AEC tally room. Preference distribution takes place in the days following the election.

I reckon the AEC tally to which you refer would be the actual numbers of first preference votes counted, the raw data if you like while figures quoted in the various media outlets would be after the "weighting" from previous election results are factored in e.g. historically in this seat vote preferences and postal votes usually flow this way.

Just a guess but I reckon the role of the AEC would be to strictly report on the actual numbers without "colouring" them in any way.

Cheers Floyd. So then Labor's position is pretty damn good.

@Stunet,

well yes it is but the modelling used by the media etc these days on preference and postal vote flows is very accurate. For example, postal votes always favour the sitting member (there are good reasons why this happens related to an odd AEC electoral provision that favours the sitting member).

My guess from here is we will have a slight majority for the Libs or (less likely) a hung parliament but IMO this is an excellent result for Labor, as Paul Keating famously said " I want to roast them slowly" and this was the election to loose and the LNP will be most certainly be roasted very very slowly with a failed policy agenda, party in-fighting and hostile cross benches in both houses. Its all bad news for the conservatives.

Hey, some of the really good news for Labor here is the increased number of capable women coming into the parliament including the election of Australia's first indigenous woman to the Reps.

I'll second that floyd. What are the odds on them going a full term?

On a lighter note, anyone recognise this guy voting in Bondi yesterday?

On a side note for most of the day on Saturday the SMH website featured photos of both leaders. The photo of Turnbull had him relaxed and smiling, the photo of Shorten was the unflattering one of him biting into a sausage sandwich. Given that they had come out for the coalition earlier in the week there was no way this was an accident. Have Fairfax really fallen to Murdoch's level? It would seem so.

@blindboy, to answer your earlier question about the Libs having a full term; odds are poor IMO as the likes of Abertz, Bernardi and Abbott keeping the party line especially over issues like the plebiscite and carbon pricing are not good.

The ABC news website ran the same sausage Shorten story all day and night. Reporting or creating news? it is often a blurry line these days BB!

Was speaking about "anger" last week during brexit... I gave my whacky theory that "Joe blogs" doesn't own his privacy anymore, his destiny, his happiness, his security..... All he has left is his anger.... It can't be privatized, or made into a welfare card, or taxed, or negatively geared..... it's the only thing he has total control over.... And it manifests in many different ways... Joe blogs can't enjoy his life anymore..... So he'll be damned if he's gonna let these "people' in power who squeezed him and his family, have an easy life...... He looks at these parties with disdain.... He lashes out at the ballot box.....For decades now, both sides have not governed for him, or his kids..... They've governed for vested interests, for "mates".... And both the left and right are guilty of this.....
So....... Major parties take note.... Don't expect job security or "stability" if you refuse to offer the same to the people..... They've had enough..... People are starting to take pleasure by venting their anger at those responsible for removing joy from their lives..... Unless they treat people first, and the "economy" second, or at least give that impression, the days of the 3 or 4 term politician may be gone..
Take that to the "think tank" lol

What have they had enough of Sheepy ?

What has been done to people to make them angry ?

Not being heard, Blowin, whether it be some of the things that concern you, like what we've discussed, or whether it be "climate change", or child care, or expensive houses, or war, or cost of living, or penalty rates...... People are now breaking into smaller factions who share similar gripes, because the two major parties aren't listening..... Hence we have the greens growing, pissed off people.... We have Xenophon growing - pissed off people, and we even have Fucking Hanson back - pissed off people....... Hinch ffs...... Largest amount of folk in history to not vote for the major parties...... Nearly a quarter of all voters....... Here's the stats;

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/

So it doesn't matter if "joe blogs" is anti foreign worker (like you), or if they are worried climate change, like maybe Turkey, or if they are anti syrian war participation, anti coal seam gas (like me)...... We all feel unrepresented..... Shafted.......Thats my take on it.

Hanson is back, and she's stronger, wiser and more determined than ever.

Her royal commissions into climate change and Islam should be good.

I didn't say she was wise, just wiser!

Hanson loves the Liberals. Abbott especially.

Erm. Yeah, naaaaaaaah. Google if need be.

Exciting times.

The campaign was highly negative. Facts were misrepresented. Maybe more fear than anger.

TBH it only went negative in the last 2-3 weeks. And it's not like the Medicare question is totally unfounded; it's Liberal ideology to sell off private assets. That's why people vote for and join the party - they subscribe to that theory.

In any case, at least the negativity was contained and neither party had to confect a children overboard scenario.

Negative campaigning is employed by both major parties in the last week or so before an election because it works. They are targeting swinging voters in the marginals. From a lot of focus groups in a lot of western democracys, swinging voters are shown to have a particularly high percentage of the most politically uninformed voters. Negative campaigning close to election day is proven to cut through to these voters.

Respect to Medicare, the truth is that the GPs were going to increase their charges, not the government. If you received a robocall then you would have heard the true scare rubbish.

Libs have plenty of form in trying to introduce a price signal into the Medicare system: a defacto and piecemeal approach to privatisation.
You think people have already forgotten Abbotts budget?

Turnbull throwing a tantrum about it shows exactly what happens when an arrogant and out of touch banker doesn't get his own way.
This guy is not prime minster material.

The Coalition's extension of the Medicare rebate freeze to 6 years, that the 2014 Medicare rebate amounts would apply until 2020, would force most GPs to up their own rates. For GPs, no one was freezing their staff's salaries or premises rents etc for 6 years, just their Medicare income. Coalition basically telling GPs to find the money themselves, from their customers.

FR, remember Abbotts budget was not passed by the senate. Not sure what you are referring to re 'price signal.' I assume was it the copayment that was tried to be introduced ? How would anyone try to do a piecemeal sale of Medicare would be interesting, given its size and complexity. Maybe agree, Turnbull is not an Aussie leader. He did not have the mongrel in him. But if this all turns to a hung parliament then he would be the best of poor choice.
Wally, so it's ok for the GPs to increase their wealth at the expense of everyone else. Also the schedules are in stages not to 2020. If there was an agreed increase according to CPI then maybe a fair argument - not for the GPs.
We have all copped low increases, can't see why the hard done by GPs start to cop it too. I can't see many GPs doing it tough to.

Barberino... The reason the medicare "scare campaign" worked is because of Abbotts famous line "no cuts to health, pensions" yadda yadda........ Then the 2014 budget...... Pure lies........ So when Turnbul and sco mo said we wont privatise medicare, even though they put forward a plan to privatise part of the medicare admin, people didn't believe them.... The libs had runs on the board re' going back on "core promises"....

Anyhoo, here's an open letter I penned to the guardian and Bolt.... I doubt Bolt wil publish;

An open letter to T Abbott, and his media dogs;
Dear Mr Abbott.... Please retire.... Your white anting over the past 9 months has been a disgrace... Your personal friends in the media, Bolt and Jones and co', have totally destroyed the Liberal party... Their behaviour on national tv during the election was an embarrassment to conservative politics, and demonstrated everything wrong with the extreme right...
But mostly Mr Abbott, when a replaced leader hangs around like flatulence in an elevator, the party is doomed... We saw it with Peacock.... It put the libs in the wilderness for years, till Downer had the courage to resign, replaced by Howard.... We saw it with Rudd... And Hayden did the right thing by Hawke..... Hawke did the right thing by Keating.... They all went on to win elections...... So for you to hang around like the reincarnation of Rudd is the basis of all these problems.... Bolt and co' can have their hissy fits, but whilst you are there, Mr Abbott, the party you reportedly love is doomed..

TB, not sure what you mean about the rebate. Normally, they are CPI indexed. The rebates for all medical services has been frozen until 2020. So, for example, the 2014 GP standard consultation rebate of $37.05 will continue unchanged until 2020. That's not a low increase, that's no increase.

The greens and xenophon both voted with the libs to change the senate voting laws ( felt slighty "off" voting for xenophon re this)....
Because of this, we now have Pauline Hanson maybe winning 3 senate spots, we have Hinch, and maybe Fred Nile.....
I wonder if Richard De Natale and Nick Xenophon are going to write this;

"Dear Ricky Muir and Glenn Lazarus.... We're sorry.... Please come back".

Wally, the fee charged for medical services is totally up to the provider. As you know, Labor was the first to freeze the rebates on some services. If the provider wishes to increase the fees then yes the customer will most be required to pay the extra. The argument AMA are pushing is that they want the government to increase the rebate so they can charge more and yet not be held accountable for the increased service cost. Given the low CPI, and budget deficits (assume there is agreement there), then maybe the GPs can either improve efficiency, continue with current costs or charge the customer. If you have been in a bulk billing place, you maybe surprised at the level of servicing happening but that is an emotive debate in itself.

abc 24 just said up to 5 for one nation

pauline hanson just had 20 minute press conference, easily 10 minutes of questioning about her policies on Islam and asian migration. she held her own, came off looking alright

definitely wiser

After 20+ years and all the shit she's gone through, I don't think she'll be a pushover any more.
I still don't think she's very bright...

......but still a sad angry person who is destined for great disappointment. If the coalition give an inch on her core policies they will be murdered at the next election.

yeh still a bit nasty, and still a bit dumb, but definitely wiser

can't see how either big party could seriously take her on, but they probably will

she said brandis had just called

I'd tell them to fuck off if I was her, after what Abbott and howard constructed for her

A bloke goes for an early and scores big time and comes home to this ........ bugger me!

Indo and the Sheepster made comments above about people being angry and not being listened to by their "elected" officials as reasons why people are now voting independent.

A lot of truth in their comments.

No doubt there are many reasons why politicians don't listen and care for the needs of ordinary folk and I'm going to return to what I believe are the two main reasons.

Firstly, paid lobbyists and their daily briefing or harassing of ministers and parliamentary members. If government of either side try to introduce any sort of legislation they will have industry groups, think tanks and lobbyists banging on their doors giving a thousand reasons why the legislation is no good ...... of course its all about competitive advantage and corporate gain (greed) and not what is good for the country.

Secondly, lack of transparency in political donations. We will have to wait, I think, 18 months before we will find out who donated what to each political party (and in the case of the NSW Liberal Party only if Arthur Sinodinos can recover from his memory loss) for this election.

I think big Nick is on to this, possibly also Wilkie and others, I am hoping so.

We need real time political donation disclosure laws as a matter of urgency so the electorate know before it votes who is cashing up the politicians. These laws need to set a very low bar on the amount .... lets say $100 i.e. anyone who donates more than $100 will be publicly disclosed "real time" to the electorate.

Of course every industry group, think tank and lobbyist in the country will oppose this move and that is why the country, right now, has a unique opportunity given the numbers of independents in play.

Now, I thinking of sneaking out for a late one given its still offshore .........

Not too relevant to the present situation but there is a Malcolm Gladwell podcast called The Lady Vanishes that has a lot to say about Australian (and other) politics. Be patient, he takes a while to get to the point.

......maybe don't listen to it if you have ever had a positive thought about Tony Abbott.

Floyd writes;

"Firstly, paid lobbyists and their daily briefing or harassing of ministers and parliamentary members. If government of either side try to introduce any sort of legislation they will have industry groups, think tanks and lobbyists banging on their doors giving a thousand reasons why the legislation is no good ...... of course its all about competitive advantage and corporate gain (greed) and not what is good for the country.

Secondly, lack of transparency in political donations. We will have to wait, I think, 18 months before we will find out who donated what to each political party (and in the case of the NSW Liberal Party only if Arthur Sinodinos can recover from his memory loss) for this election."

There's sooo much more...... But yeah...... That's a great start, Floyd.... I'd even look at criminal charges and potential jail time for politicians who use their trusted position for private gain.... If tenders or policy decisions can be proven to directly benefit a politicians private business, or increase their property value, and it doesn't also do the same for surrounding constiuents, drag them into court...... They are voted in, entrusted by the people to make the right decisions for all....
Also, be incredibly strict on declarations..... Both sides abuse this..... If there was a law that stated automatic dismissal and immediate bi election, you watch them tidy up their declarations.....

Just listened to the podcast BB and cant say I agree with the premise. That being, we apply moral licensing by allowing a woman into a male domain only to shut the door on the rest. I mean, in theory it's valid but is old Mal aware that Gillard wasn't voted in by the people of Australia? Seems not...

Also, a politician - man or woman - will always cop heaps from the opposition because that's what the opposition do. That it became gendered had less to do with his moral licensing theory and more to do with  the troglodyte then leading the Libs.

'Twas a few repressed memories listening to those sound bites from 2012 and the thought of Abbott in power again, even just anywhere near the steering wheel, sends shivers down my spine.

I thought he made a reasonable case Stu. Gillard was subject to more personal abuse than any other PM. There's a difference between copping heaps and the kind of toxic crap she had to put up with. Regardless of the point on moral licensing it was a good reminder of the depths to which Abbott sank.

You're a liar tony barber, in almost every post you make in these politico forums you lie. In the posts that you don't lie you tend to obscure or misrepresent. In response to your lies about a hung parliament, the Gillard government passed plenty of legislation, far more than the subsequent conservative government.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jun/28/australia-producti...

Also your wetting the bed......again.

Interesting, because no matter which side of politics one sits on or views from, few would look upon the Gilard years as shining lights of Labor leadership. Don't loose sight of the fact that the current ( or maybe previous) government did not have passage thru the senate which will help explain legislation delays.

"Up until the last hung parliament, probably would have agreed that a 50/ 50 parliament would be good. But as we saw useless to get legislation thru", that's your quote, considering you know this not to be the case your a liar, you know full well that the Gillard government had far greater success at passing legislation in a hung parliament than the conservative government has managed since with its majority but you choose to post a lie, then you continue with your meaningless lies and attempt to smear people, "few would look upon the Gillard years as shining lights of labor leadership", that's your opinion, don't mix this up with facts on the ground, you are a liar.

Well, TF, you obviously weren't at the Labor election launch. Those past leaders that got the applause we Hawkey, Keating and Beasley, sorry but they moved on from that - nothing for Julia. Gotta be real here even Shorty said we have moved on from the Gillard days … I think it was Brandis that used 'liar' the last time I heard with respect to politics.

Tim I believe Credlin's full description was a "hapless set of bedwetters".

She's got a way with words.

Faith allows religious zealots and holders of extreme political views to completely ignore logic, reasoned argument, the facts and it also allows them to lie with apparent immunity as anything that doesn't align with their faith is subordinate.

Herein lies the problem with the far right in the parliamentary Liberal Party and their pisshand supporters like Tones.

Saw this in the comments section of The Age today ........ "Great to see Arthur Sinodinos commentating on Channel 9 recalling election facts from the 1990s. Such a good memory".

"Up until the last hung parliament, probably would have agreed that a 50/ 50 parliament would be good. But as we saw useless to get legislation thru", can't believe a word you say tb. By way of obsfication you offer up the unpopularity of the prime minister, supported by the on the ground facts that she didn't receive huge applause at the 2016 labor election launch. Haha "gotta be real"