House prices
andy-mac wrote:Yep, looks like a shitshow is brewing!
Fan is all serviced and ready to go.
Time for Albo to show some balls and make some big decisions. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/04/a-quarter-of-aust...
https://www.crispinhull.com.au/2023/06/05/nightmare-for-young-people-today/
Thought this was good. He states it in better detail and more clearly than I can.
Punch line:
"That is the elephant in the room. Lowe did not mention it; Richardson did not mention it; the Government and the Green do not mention it; business organisations do not mention it. All of the rich and powerful take high immigration and high population growth as an axiomatic must and given. They profit from it or are influenced by the corporate donors who profit from it.
The people who do mention it, however, are the ordinary people most adversely affected by it.
A Guardian Essential poll a week ago found that 60 per cent of people want immigration capped until the housing crisis is solved. And fewer than 20 per cent were opposed.
There is a swelling anger here. It should not be exploited by dog-whistlers on race. Rather it should be met with a rational economic and environmental assessment and a fundamental recalibration of Australia’s tax system and reduction or removal of student debt. Without them the Reserve Bank will drive us into recession, and resentment and anger among our young people will grow even more This is not a Monty Python skit."
Supafreak wrote:Time for Albo to show some balls and make some big decisions. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/04/a-quarter-of-aust...
What is the solution? Limit how many houses/ units a person may have as a second property? Only allow the generous tax incentives for 1 property?
Had a mate talking about one of his acquaintances that had 10's of investment properties? Should there be limits?
I have no idea.
What impact will this have on in the next few decades where the Boomer property owners start to die off and leave property/s to their kids. Huge transfer of wealth there which I guess the lucky ones will do very well. If parents never got in the game then bad luck I guess.
If housing market collapses, Banks go under then what happens to Australia's super accounts which as I understand are heavily invested in banks. Everyone will be screwed.
Can there be places built like the Kost/ Kostan in Indo, just single rooms with basic bathroom kitchen set up. Would Australians accept this?
Immigration, Australia has many new arrivals, but we need the age care workers, nurses, etc etc. No one like places getting busier, but want their mum and dad properly looked after if in aged care or hospital.
Geez.... what a wicked web that has been spun.
Some nonsense in that article too VJ.
For many, the compulsory repayment taken from wages by the ATO would not cover the indexation and their indebtedness would increase. If inflation stays high, they may never repay their debt.
That is just not correct.
It's definitely a debt-drag on their potential to borrow for a mortgage though.
So I think his point stands- they have a larger debt for longer and thus less ability to borrow for a house.
Yep, I'm one of those. But this paragraph above is plainly wrong, that is not how the formula works. This is why he used 'For many' rather than analysing properly and providing a breakdown.
This one is good too. Businesses and entrepreneurs will have to create 32,000 jobs a month just to keep up with new arrivals:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/06/australias-jobs-market-cant-abs...
Of note is one of the comments from 'pfh007', worth quoting as they assert new arrivals are adding more to demand and not as much to labour supply - both equal more inflation. They also assert at the end that govt is not interested in any policies that lessen the inflation:
QUOTE
"Given the unemployment rate has not skyrocketed with the burst of arrivals but inflation has continued to stay high, it seems much more likely that the recent immigration has been adding more to demand than to labour supply.
And that is not suprising. The types of jobs that university students are willing or able to do are quite limited and now that they cannot work more than 20 hours per week that problem is greater.
So all those university students rushing back are likely to be bad news for inflation as they are driving demand but really helping labour supply.
In recent weeks I have noticed a large burst of new arrivals that are able to apply for full time work but they run into the same old problem faced by all new arrivals. Qualifications and experience offshore are not much help in getting a job. So they may be also adding to demand but not labour supply.
The unemployment figures seem pretty clear. The labour supply is not increasing nearly as fast as demand is rising due to immigration.
The result on inflation is to be expected.
So what is different now to the last 15 years ?
Inflationary expectations are now off and running and that is mostly a behavioural phenomena and getting that back in the box is easier said than done.
That will require a lot of very direct economic management by the government (tight fiscal, direct reform policies and tight monetary) and that is something they are not interested in doing."
** So we are in for a special circular shitshow indeed.
Inflation rampant, debtors getting hit hard, less economic activity pie to share between more and more whose demand make inflation rampant now go back to the start of the sentence.
'We now tax labour more and capital and consumption less.'
Ok, I can agree with this. I'm more than happy to increase taxes on capital while reducing them on labor. The author is cheeky in the consumption part. Why is he not openly saying that he advocates for the GST increase (as I said many times before - a great source of wealth for those ideal European countries).
In any case, I outrightly reject one-sided tax increases as they rarely go away in the future. If you want to increase the capital tax lower the income tax. If you want to increase consumption (GST) then lower the income tax etc.
Many look into history for explanations. This is one of my favorites -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_revolts_in_late-medieval_Europe
lol, you know things are getting bad when people are posting about revolts in medieval Europe..!
And just to pour some more fuel on the fire, it's not just the immigration intake.
VJ posted some stuff a few pages back:
- Julie Collins MP: sigfnificant expansion of criteria for the Home Guarantee Scheme
- Chris Minns: extending first home stamp duty exemptions, and
We're abolishing stamp duty for first-home buyers spending up to $800,000 - and significantly reducing it for up to $1 million!
— Chris Minns (@ChrisMinnsMP) May 21, 2023
So our governments are currently doing everything they can to increase house prices, even under the guise of helping first home buyers. It won't help 1st home buyers because it's just increasing demand for property and not doing anything about supply.. So prices will just rise and negate any benefit, particularly hammering those unable to buy a home right now.
Are our politicians unashamedly acting purely in their own personal financial interests or are they just making very basic, elementary errors in economic policy? I really can't tell.
"Are our politicians unashamedly acting purely in their own personal financial interests or are they just making very basic, elementary errors in economic policy? I really can't tell."
the former gsco. I can't fathom people can be that dumb
The irony of Chris Minns announcement is that most of the new house and land packages start above $1 million, so like you say GSCO it doesn't help with supply at all.
Yeah that Chris Minns announcement was absolutely incomprehensible given the timing. It reeked of the Futurama 'I'm sending more trains!' skit.
Here's one from newscorp - linked so you can get a chuckle with Mark Bouris getting schooled in the comments :)
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/mark-bouris-says-...
The boomers on twitter made me do it: Housing Crisis 1983 vs 2023https://t.co/1fQG1Xm9Qe pic.twitter.com/7Tsx13ljV5
— Jack Toohey (@jack_toohey) June 4, 2023
This pile on RBA is a bit ridiculous. Constantly comparing to April last year should be done in the context of why was it so low in April last year to begin with. I get the initial Covid crisis but April last year was more than 2 years after the initial shock. Economic indicators were already favourable for awhile so why not raise earlier? One could also argue that a bunch of people got ‘once in a generation’ discount in like a couple months when Covid kicked off. Why didn’t they save money to pay for the increase which would eventually kick in? I’m of an opinion that RBA used Covid to resolve some long lasting issues like lack of inflation and stagnant wages. Before Covid these were the main discussion points but there was not enough rationale to cut sharply.
andy-mac wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/toorak-homeowners-acc...
This is way over the top and quite crazy. If I was the one receiving these threats I would sell my assets and move them overseas. Fuck this.
flollo wrote:andy-mac wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/toorak-homeowners-acc...
This is way over the top and quite crazy.
surprised? its very much predictable. who would've thought. extreme inequality leads to societal chaos.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/06/07/australia-economy-growth-i...
"Dr Lowe said the current interest rate climate – with rates at 11-year-highs – were “going to be the environment we’re operating in for a while yet.”"
"ABS head of national accounts Katherine Keenan said data released on Wednesday showed the slowest economic growth since the Delta COVID lockdowns in the September quarter of 2021."
The BIG R is coming!!!
Don were you calling mid late 2033 for crash or recession? FR must be keeping tabs. I’m still in the definite nothing to see here camp. Pain yes. Crash or recession no
bonza wrote:flollo wrote:andy-mac wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/toorak-homeowners-acc...
This is way over the top and quite crazy.
surprised? its very much predictable. who would've thought. extreme inequality leads to societal chaos.
Not crazy at all, it's borderline hilarious.
Agreed Bonza, people need to start having an idea of what might happen if the shit really hits the fan.
Come the revolution, people might start to get a knock at the door. Or they might get their door kicked in.
I don't get it Flollo, one minute you're posting a link about popular revolts, next thing you get the grumps because someone made a peaceful point in Toorak.
Haha true. I'm all for protests but take it to your government which is unwilling to implement any sort of reform. I might join you in this scenario. Knocking on people's houses is ridiculous. Sure, maybe some of those Toorak people have special interests so they deserve the treatment. But some maybe don't. Who knows which one is which? Is it now a crime to have a holiday home or an extra car? Because that's basically what that pamphlet indicates. Rhetoric can turn to violence and in this scenario, violence can easily turn into innocent victims. So yeah, fuck that.
Seen it before and many of my family members got their backs broken by those who took people's homes in the name of equality. Built walls in people's houses so they could move strangers in with them, creating unlivable conditions for all occupants. It starts with a pamphlet but finishes with coffee and petrol rations. So yeah, I'm a bit skeptical. History 100% warrants that.
Having trouble connecting the dots flollo? The trodden don’t give a shit. The wealthy need to. Right or wrong.
Bonza, that assumes that the definition of wealthy is crystal clear and agreed upon on the societal level. Secondly, the distribution of people into wealthy and non wealthy ‘bucket’ is easy and transparent. Thirdly, actions against the wealthy bucket should be clear and agreed upon. Even some discussion about this will be controversial but absolutely required to avoid innocent victims e.g. hurting non wealthy people in the name of wealth distribution.
We need to set some parameters around this before the action is taken. And this is what government should be doing. That’s what we’re paying them for. Otherwise we will end up with uncontrolled vigilantes hurting a whole bunch of people. I don’t want that and I don’t think this is what Australia is about.
The joke's on the pamphleteer because cars are depreciating liabilities, for the most. What a way to keep you poor, some one gives you a just out of warranty 7 series or Rangey to maintain...
"ABS head of national accounts Katherine Keenan said data released on Wednesday showed the slowest economic growth since the Delta COVID lockdowns in the September quarter of 2021."
That's so nuts when you think about it Don, we're all open and there's between 400-700K more of us here and demand for things like cars is off the scale yet slowest economic growth since we were all locked at home learning a hobby.
That’s nice.. Now pretend I’m not on the internet but I’m at your door. Hungry homeless, angry and delusional..Convince me.
You said it flollo, the government is unwilling to implement any sort of reform so I see this letterbox stunt as a worthwhile attention-getter.
It's not a crime to have a holiday house or a second car but people need to be aware and take their head out of their arse and start thinking of other people.
Time for a ramble.
I've been going down an MC5 rabbit hole and I've been wondering what sort of social environment drives people to put out music like that.
So I had a bit of a read about the summer of 1967 in Detroit and it's no surprise what went on.
Sure there was plenty of racism in the mix but other key causes of those riots were class-based, specifically housing availability, housing affordability and the displacement of the poor due to urban renewal.
Sounds familiar.
The riots lasted for six days and resulted in 43 deaths, 1,189 injured, over 7,200 arrests, and more than 400 buildings destroyed.
There's nothing more dangerous than people with nothing to lose.
And yes, once things kick off it doesn't matter if you're rich or poor, you're going to be a target.
Better to deal with things early.
bonza wrote:That’s nice.. Now pretend I’m not on the internet but I’m at your door. Hungry homeless, angry and delusional..Convince me.
Easy. If you ask for help you can stay and I’ll feed you. You might get an ally in your battle. If you threaten me with violence I have to take action to ensure that my 3 boys have a father tomorrow. So it leads to mess and division. Multiply this with x 1,000+ across the country and you have a national disaster.
@andy I had a privilege of participating in some crazy riots during my days in Europe. Huge fights with police, burning rubbish containers and pushing them downhill onto police formations. Molotov cocktails. Them beating the living shit out of people, letting dogs loose onto the crowds. Hundreds hurt on all sides. Burnt cars everywhere. I could carry on but one of the most important things was that no one ever went into peoples homes. Take your battle to the streets and they will listen. Create chaos when needed. But if you go into peoples homes you will just create a division. It leads nowhere.
Flollo. you can’t rationalise with crazy. Your arguments, sensible and logical they may be, to us in our ivory towers
so to speak, are completely, increasingly disconnected from the angry mob.
flollo wrote:@andy I had a privilege of participating in some crazy riots during my days in Europe. Huge fights with police, burning rubbish containers and pushing them downhill onto police formations. Molotov cocktails. Them beating the living shit out of people, letting dogs loose onto the crowds. Hundreds hurt on all sides. Burnt cars everywhere. I could carry on but one of the most important things was that no one ever went into peoples homes. Take your battle to the streets and they will listen. Create chaos when needed. But if you go into peoples homes you will just create a division. It leads nowhere.
Maybe it would stay on the streets, maybe it would spiral down into the looting and arson of private property.
Either way, the point is that Australia is at the stage where we need to deal with wealth inequality
Geez if violence is the answer you are asking the wrong questions...
It does seem nuts that RBA is continuing to raise rates where they now seemingly are only hurting the people who have stopped spending already. The cohort who are mortgage free are happy to continue to spend and now getting better ROI on savings this able to spend more.
Corporate profits up, but as mentioned in linked article not really being discussed.
Seems like RBA needs to be reined in or the govt more very quickly to support the people affected, especially the one who took out big loans listening to the RBA Governors advice that interest rates won't increase....
Buy yeah interest rates need to align with international markets
Cannot help feeling they were kept artificially low with previous administration and should have started to increase a year or so earlier than they were.
Fark I feel for those going through mortgage stress. Horrible situation.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/grogonomics/2023/jun/08/the-e...
reading the above, albo and co. are just behaving plain recklessly, throwing money (and migrants) around everywhere like there is no tomorrow...
there's a hell of a lot of inflation to filter through yet ...a hell of a lot of a lot...
and, anything actually constructive governments do re. housing (which is so far pretty much nothing...) would have a five year turnaround at best - all while pouring more fuel on the inflationary fire and house prices...
a minister for homelessness with three properties...
a LABOR prime minister -with a 5 mil property portfolio... who's answer is to direct people to charities...
the whole thing reads like a parody
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/finance/markets/dont-trot-o...
what could possibly go wrong?
and, the greens are 100 % spot on correct...
for the first time in a long time
labor's housig 'policy' is just more neoliberal bullshit...
more government shirking responsibiity, more money to the big end, neoliberal bullshit...
exactly what created the situation in the first place
the alp is a parody
sypkan wrote:reading the above, albo and co. are just behaving plain recklessly, throwing money (and migrants) around everywhere like there is no tomorrow...
there's a hell of a lot of inflation to filter through yet ...a hell of a lot of a lot...
and, anything actually constructive governments do re. housing (which is so far pretty much nothing...) would have a five year turnaround at best - all while pouring more fuel on the inflationary fire and house prices...
a minister for homelessness with three properties...
a LABOR prime minister -with a 5 mil property portfolio... who's answer is to direct people to charities...
the whole thing reads like a parody
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/finance/markets/dont-trot-o...
what could possibly go wrong?
Wonder if news.com would publish an article such as that if LNP were in govt?
Ok it is correct, but this problem has been decades in the making (both side of politics) and to start laying all the blame at a 1 year old govt is just stupid.
Does Albo need to do more, definitely.
Again this govt probably got the biggest hospital pass if Australia's history, and if you reckon if Morrison had won the last election we would be in a better position, ya dreaming.
Albo could start with cancelling this madness and funnelling money to Australians that need it!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/07/paul-keating-sent-explosiv...
"Wonder if news.com would publish an article such as that if LNP were in govt?"
don't know... don't care...
morrison's grossness doesn't cancel out labor's 30 odd years of ineptitude
it's about much more than 1 year in government
sypkan wrote:"Wonder if news.com would publish an article such as that if LNP were in govt?"
don't know... don't care...
morrison's grossness doesn't cancel out labor's 30 odd years of ineptitude
it's about much more than 1 year in government
If you read my comment I am generally agreeing with you.
I did, and I know...
I just think such distractions are petty point scores for the party faithful, and nauseating free passes to everyone else...
that distract from the real issues
I did, and I know...
I just think such distractions are petty point scores for the party faithful, and nauseating free passes to everyone else...
that distract from the real issues
I agree.
Going further down the neoliberal path, heightened inequality and concentration of wealth, intentional worsening property affordability, increasing homelessness, out of control immigration, abandoning those struggling, working directly against the RBA in the battle against inflation, etc
combined with
Fake left woke mind virus virtue signalling across the board and as the central policy issue, particularly as a deflection and diversion away from the real issues being ignored and/or failed on
combined with
Unbridled military spending and consequent reduction of essential services and increasing debt burden on future generations, all in the aim of following the US into war with China
…
Im sorry but ALP couldn’t damage Australia any more if it tried.
But we have no alternative. The LNP isn’t really a political party anymore, more like a loose association of cronies.
@gsco "Im sorry but ALP couldn’t damage Australia any more if it tried.
But we have no alternative. The LNP isn’t really a political party anymore, more like a loose association of cronies."
What policies would you be suggesting for ALP govt and how would you implement them in current situation?
I have no idea really, they seem dammed if they do and dammed if they don't on most ideas.
Not trying to argue if this post comes across that way, just curious on your thoughts as your ALP statement seems pretty harsh. Do you really believe members of ALP are really trying to damage Australia?
@gsco is usually more critical than I am. I think labor is doing some good stuff. Their policies around parental leave and child care support are definitely needed. This is probably even more urgent than housings.
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers