House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 1:38pm

good onya andym for having the patience and drive to deal with special child

the clown doesn't do context, and never has...

a one track TA attack dog

caught the car, bites the tyre, has no idea what comes next, so holds on regardless...

it's like watching a cartoon, with dopey dog latched onto the car tyre, and going round and around again, bashing his head on the road with every rotation

kinda funny, but tedious afrer a while

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:13pm

Meanwhile back in the real world Australia's population has declined during covid
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-24/population-declines-as-covid-bord...
And house prices have gone through the roof,
So tell us again how immigrants caused the recent price rises. I'm genuinely intrigued at how you blokes are going to reconcile this one.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:19pm

You’ve been told. You’ve even been told within the last page or so of this thread. You refuse to listen. Refusing to listen is the hallmark of the moronic. I don’t talk to morons. Good day to you sir.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:18pm

.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:55pm

Immigrants. They are driving up house prices.
When immigrants aren't coming. They are still driving up house prices in Australia.
That's your argument dopey.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 3:07pm

Something doesn't add up with that ABC article VL.

It claims that "[i]n the three months to September last year, 55,400 people left Australia, while 20,600 arrived — turning net overseas migration negative by 34,800 people."

If you consider that 446,000 expats returned home in 12 months, it looks like the 20,600 arrivals in those 3 months are immigrants only without including returning expats.

So it still looks very much like a rapidly increasing population, by whatever means, will have a significant impact on real estate prices.

And VL I think you've shown us a classic piece of pro-unlimited population propaganda.

All dressed up in a way that makes you a 'racist' if you have reservations.

Pretty slimy.

The only thing I wonder is if the author is knowingly promoting unlimited population growth or if they are genuinely going for the humanitarian angle.

Considering it's a "business" article, I'm going for the former.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 3:14pm

Anyone who opposes limited immigration and population growth is a right wing environmental vandal nut job.

Bigoted against any flora and fauna which isn’t human.

You officially occupy the same philosophical place as Scomo, the IPA and the young Liberals.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 3:22pm

After reading that article again, it's total propaganda.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 3:29pm

So if what Andy is suggesting is correct, then we have seen an increase of about 466,600 people.

Many of which would be adults returning from OS where they possible moved for quite good professional type jobs, and have now returned home to reset roots and escape OS Covid chaos.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 3:30pm

"You officially occupy the same philosophical place as Scomo, the IPA and the young Liberals."
OMG. Gabbling idiot is too kind a description for you blowin.
When exactly have I promoted unlimited population growth anywhere on any of these forums? All I've ever done is call out the complete and utter racist bullshit from the Pauline Hanson mob.
This notion that population increases is a major driver of house prices is just racist immigrant bashing with very little evidence to back it up.
Blowin was predicting a massive housing price correction due to lack of immigrants caused by the Covid crisis. It was supposed to drop 30-50% according to the guy who wanted to round up South Koreans for immediate deportation. What a fucking clown.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 3:32pm

You got it Indo.

Which helps explain why kids are finding it so much easier to get a job - less tourists and backpackers, and also the expats coming home are adults and aren't looking for those lower-paid jobs.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 3:33pm

VL, why not play the ball instead of the man?

You seem fixated.

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Supafreak Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 3:50pm

937-AA53-E-967-B-4810-A002-067-DE70-E7-B4-C

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 5:31pm

Surprise, surprise. The moron is back.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 5:45pm

B295-FDCC-CC7-A-45-D2-813-A-B35-A4-BF354-DF

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 5:50pm

VL for you to deny that population increase [i.e. demand] is a major driver of house prices just defies all logic and evidence.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 6:21pm

The ghost of gaslighting past.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 6:41pm

...

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 7:56pm

indo-dreaming wrote: So if what Andy is suggesting is correct, then we have seen an increase of about 466,600 people.

Many of which would be adults returning from OS where they possible moved for quite good professional type jobs, and have now returned home to reset roots and escape OS Covid chaos.


Got it in one. Andy's picked it with the numbers. This also explains the areas of the economy that are booming, in what people would need when they arrive home after 10 years on a bond trading desk in NY - decent house, idyllic location, decent 4wd, etc etc.
AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 11:34pm

Example A -

My girlfriend’s mate has just come back from working finance in Singapore.
Goes to Sunshine Beach on the Sunny Coast and drops a packet on a new place across the road from the beach.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 12:28am

Where’d you get the 450,000 returned citizens from?

The quarantine cap has fluctuated around 4,000 people per week for a year. That’s a total of approx 200,000 people entering Australia. How’d the other 250,000 people get in?

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 9:26am

carpetman wrote: Where’d you get the 450,000 returned citizens from?

The quarantine cap has fluctuated around 4,000 people per week for a year. That’s a total of approx 200,000 people entering Australia. How’d the other 250,000 people get in?

DFAT

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 9:50am

carpetman wrote: Where’d you get the 450,000 returned citizens from?

The quarantine cap has fluctuated around 4,000 people per week for a year. That’s a total of approx 200,000 people entering Australia. How’d the other 250,000 people get in?

Maybe it takes into account the period just before borders shut?

Id imagine even then there would have been a large increase in residents returns compared to normal during that period.

" 92% of resident returns in 2020 occurred prior to travel restrictions implemented by the Australian Government on 20 March 2020."

And you can see from the link in May this year with the travel bubble to NZ there was 114,520, general arrivals, so you could imagine in a normal month before we must have hundreds of thousands of arrivals, so with a flood of people returning home you could easily fit in 250,000 return residents within a few weeks.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/oversea...

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 5:57pm

Nice link.

Based on the ABS data we're positive approx. 100,000 arrivals between feb 20 & may 21.

Looking at the same interval for the previous normal period, so between feb 18 & may 19, we were positive 260,000 arrivals. So we are down considerably.

If you look at a year of data from Jun 20 to May 21, 200,000 more people left Australia than entered.

And looking at the monthly average since quarantine has been implemented we have a net loss of 18,000 people per month.

So based on the ABS data it's fairly clear the number of people entering Australia is in sever decline.

And for those who want a small Australia, wait a little longer, it's currently happening.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 9:52am

Those are just general arrivals and departure figures though ya?

You really need to know the return resident figures.

I did find some articles that quote the 450,000 figure though.

"The Department of Foreign Affairs reports that more than 450,000 Australians returned since travel warnings were issued in March last year."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-05/housing-pressure-on-regional-quee...

"More than 450,000 Australian citizens or permanent residents have returned since March 13 last year, when the Federal Government first urged people to come back due to COVID."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-27/travel-adviser-on-stranded-austra...

carpetman's picture
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carpetman Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 11:51am

Those numbers are the TOTAL number of arrivals and TOTAL number of departures. So it takes into account every single person entering australia and every single person leaving regardless of whether they’re citizens or not.

Sure, if you dig into the numbers there would likely be 450,000 return Aussies. But there are also xxxx number of people leaving. And based on the totals we are losing people monthly.

I’ll have a look at the totals of residents returning and leaving today or tomorrow but as international tourism has effectively stopped, and there’s currently more total people leaving then coming in, you can assume that that number is reflective of residents.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 12:27pm

Nice data carpetman. This clears things up (muddies them? I too would like to see returning residents numbers). There have been a sprinkling of articles with the 400K+ number, and many many articles about the 30,000 Aussies waiting to return. The big figure for this thread will be how many coming in are buying a house, compared to how many arrivals coming in bought a house in 2017,18,19 etc.

Personally I don't mind if the net total is a shrinking population for a while. A big century is coming up.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 6:22am

Is this the definitive illustration of Australia’s obsession with real estate and the elevation of the housing market to a religion? Sydney is in full lockdown. Construction is shuttered, businesses are going broke, churches are closed. The Premier’s heart is broken by people mingling together during the worst humanitarian disaster in modern history*.

Yet the auction clearance rate sits at 75 percent. 600 auctions were staged during lockdown. It’s truly the beast that cannot be killed.

*Maybe…..

Dx3's picture
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Dx3 Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 11:24am

Federal Labor have just officially ditched their position/election promise of making any changes to housing policies of negative gearing and capital gains discounts. Very high chance these proposed policy changes they flagged last election campaign played a big part in cooking their chances to win government, so this time they are putting winning the election ahead of any policy that may actually curtail house prices.

No real surprise to be honest.

Dx3's picture
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Dx3 Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 4:49pm

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sydney-melbourne-home-prices-tip...

How good are headlines... this headline proclaiming the banks predict prices to rise by 20% by end of next year. Then you read the article and you quickly see majority of that 20% has already occurred and they are talking about from beginning of 2021 until end of 2022.. They are tipping a more modest 3.5% increase across the country next year.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 2:28pm

Saw a report from a local agent saying that there is 450K expats ( probably includes all family members ) coming home due to covid . All would be cashed up and if buying it would be at the top end ( not if buying investment property ) . Melb market is hot in winter with zoom auctions working well . With sooo much cash around , low supply and low i/r I wouldn't be surprised to see the market going a fair bit higher in the short term . In the long term I have serious doubts that the 50 year boom will continue .

spookypt's picture
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spookypt Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 7:46am

Hutchy 19 wrote: Saw a report from a local agent saying that there is 450K expats ( probably includes all family members ) coming home due to covid . All would be cashed up and if buying it would be at the top end ( not if buying investment property ) . Melb market is hot in winter with zoom auctions working well . With sooo much cash around , low supply and low i/r I wouldn't be surprised to see the market going a fair bit higher in the short term . In the long term I have serious doubts that the 50 year boom will continue .

All expats cashed up pffft - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-28/australians-want-to-flee-coronavi...

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 1:49pm

“Robert Gordon Menzies retired as Prime Minister on 20 January 1966. At 71 years of age, he planned to withdraw from politics and devote his time to writing, reading and travel.

In 1965, a group of Menzies’ supporters and friends, aware that after years of public service he was not a wealthy man, had clubbed together to buy a suitable home for his use on retirement. Menzies had at first resisted, but had agreed to the plan when it was decided to sell the home after his death and donate the proceeds to charity.”

https://www.domain.com.au/news/anthony-albanese-doubles-his-money-on-mar...

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 12:27pm

https://www.domain.com.au/news/house-prices-in-sydney-melbourne-brisbane...

I got an ad with the article, offering to refinance now as the RBA has held rates at 0.1%. Minsky melt-up, have some moral hazard-level interest rates.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 7:17pm

On the news this morning: 35-40% increase in house prices in the Northern Rivers in the last 12 months.

Median house price Byron: 2.4 million.
Lennox: 1.4 million.

At the local servo this arvo, sandwiched between a Lexus, a Tesla and a Range Rover.
All new.

This place has changed so rapidly it's unbelievable.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 30 Jul 2021 at 6:37am

Looks like house prices are dropping in Palm Beach County, Florida.

One of Dirk Ziff's estates in Manalapan went on the market in 2016 for $195 million.

https://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/business/real-estate/195-million-mans...

After six years on the market, it sold this March for $95 million to Jim Clark, co-founder of Netscape (anyone remember that? 'Twas one of the first commercial web browsers).

https://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/story/business/real-estate/2021/03/09...

Imagine being in a position to take a $100 million haircut on the sale price of a property.

Fascinating reading about it though.. it has: "33 bedrooms, 34 bathrooms and 13 powder rooms", "tennis courts, boat docks, a boatlift, reflection pond, a utility building, basketball court", plus a "salt-water 50-by-25-foot pool, a pitch and putt green, a private island off-shore, helicopter pads (one with landing lights), and two studios".

The main house, guest house, two guest cottages and a manager’s house are seemingly interconnected by three tunnels.

https://thecoastalstar.com/profiles/blogs/manalapan-potential-sale-of-zi...

Wonder if the breakwall out front produces a decent lil' wedge? Coastal alignment and training wall angle (plus exposure to the swell window) doesn't seem to be quite as good as other spots like Sebastian Inlet.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 30 Jul 2021 at 7:05am

looks like a fun little sand build up off the side of it.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Friday, 30 Jul 2021 at 7:24am

Just “one” of his estates?? How many he got?

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 30 Jul 2021 at 7:58am

I'm not sure if it's still in the family's real estate portfolio, but there is the Ziff-Bouvier Mansion at 742 Evergreen Terrace.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 30 Jul 2021 at 8:06am

Ziff has at least one house like that and is still doing his utmost best to make a profit out of surfing, even if he fucks it for everyone in the process.

Think about that for a second.

Greed is a mental disease and society should treat it as such. A billionaire trying to make more money needs to be in a straight jacket not held up as a role model.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 30 Jul 2021 at 2:44pm

freeride76 wrote: On the news this morning: 35-40% increase in house prices in the Northern Rivers in the last 12 months.

Median house price Byron: 2.4 million.
Lennox: 1.4 million.

At the local servo this arvo, sandwiched between a Lexus, a Tesla and a Range Rover.
All new.

This place has changed so rapidly it's unbelievable.

Same around here (and why I posted a cheap way to sort of keep up with the new Joneses using a 15K Discovery3 upthread lol)

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Friday, 30 Jul 2021 at 2:56pm

A quick drive over the back of the hill at Lennox shows a phenomenal amount of money and work going on - people are just pouring money into their places.
The place is blowing up.
And the show across the road from Sharpes hasn't even started.