Climate Change

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blowfly started the topic in Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 9:40am

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blowfly commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 1:26pm

Scott Morrison recently declared that “….. humanity will have a very long memory and be a very, very severe judge.” This was in relation to any nation seeking to restrict the supply of an effective COVID19 vaccine, but for many of us those words immediately suggested something else……that his government, and the governments of his COALition predecessors, will long be remembered with disgust and contempt for their toxic refusal to address climate change.

The harsh reality of climate change is starting to be felt and it is now impossible for anyone in a position of power to credibly deny its reality. It has taken several decades of passionate advocacy from the climate science community to finally defeat the well funded propaganda of the fossil fuel industry and their parasitic hangers on. The tragedy of course is that having won the PR battle, the war itself is still being lost.

The belated admission by the COALition, after decades of opposition and deliberate inaction, that climate change is real, has not been accompanied by urgent action. It has instead been accompanied by determined efforts to maximise the remaining value of the fossil fuel assets held by large corporations. The promotion of gas is an egregious example of this. When all factors are considered it is uncertain if the use of gas, in preference to coal, actually causes any decrease in greenhouse emissions. That it is also uneconomic compared to renewables merely emphasises that preferencing it as an energy source is driven entirely by political factors. Carbon capture, another of their preferred technologies, functions solely as a way to justify continued emissions. The truth is that the cost of capturing emissions far exceeds the cost of preventing their emission in the first place.

The final settled climate at the end of these changes remains profoundly unknowable but it is certain that it will be less favourable to humans than the one we have so carelessly destroyed. The temperature rise already locked in will make life increasingly difficult in many areas and not just for humans. Biodiversity, already in severe decline, will continue to fall. Huge volumes of ice will melt and add its volume to the thermal increase as oceans continue to warm. The consequences of these changes will run for centuries, if not millennia. On this issue Morrison is right, humanity will have a very long memory and be a very severe judge. That he will be one of the victims of that judgement is something it seems he has not considered. The COALition were elected in 2013. The graph tells the story of what might have been without their bastardry.
Screen-Shot-2020-09-27-at-1-08-40-pm

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 2:45pm

Got a link to the graph?

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blowfly commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 2:58pm
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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 3:41pm

Only looked at it quickly as don't have much time.

But by the looks it's fig 10 LP exports (production) that has changed the trend.

As i pointed out the other day, LPG exports have increased due to other countries looking to decrease their emissions.

Small picture= Australia emissions not falling as they could due to gas production.

Bigger picture= World emissions falling because we help other countries transition to gas from more polluting fuel sources.

Which one is more important?

I don't have time to look at it now in more detail but are all emissions bundled together or is this just C02 emissions?

From wording im going to assume it's all emissions and like i noted the other day i believe gas production generally produces methane emissions.

Yes the greenhouse effect is much greater from methane than C02 but methane also breaks down very fast it's totally gone within 9 to 12 years opposed to C02 that last hundred to thousands of years.

And the high warming effects of the gas often quoted are from when it first gets released, id love to see the rate at which it breaks down, can we assume these rates are halfed at 4.5 to 6 years or does it breakdown at a different rate?.

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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 3:39pm

double post

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blowfly commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 4:00pm

No mate you're in fantasyland....and in this case it is not the happiest kingdom of them all, it's a shit heap.

What actually happpened was that the COALition removed the carbon price that had been responsible for the downward trend in emissions over its life. When that was removed there was no longer any financial incentive to reduce emissions so while per capita emissions fell as a result of renewables and energy efficiency, overall emissions stagnated and here we are with the bastards still in power, still finding excuses to do nothing that will actually cause a drop in emissions.

....and still with the fucking lies! I mean what is it? Are you aping Trump, you know trying to get your lie rate up near his. You are an ememy of the truth mate and if you want to claim that it isn't deliberate how about checking your facts before spouiting more bullshit.

"Bigger picture= World emissions falling because we help other countries transition to gas"
Graph-2

https://www.c2es.org/content/international-emissions/

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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 7:01pm

Laurie take a deep breath and relax.

Here is the increase from LNG exports

And below is the combined emissions, again the fugitive emissions is where the real increase is they include coal, oil, gas, but if you look at Fig 13 under Fugitive emissions, you can see a slight decrease in coal but again big increase in gas.

The Industrial processes and product use had a slight increase from increase in steel production and increase in products used as substitutes for ozone depleting substances (don't know anything about this, but sounds interesting)

Increase in stationary emissions

" The increases in stationary energy emissions reflect strong growth over the year in LNG exports
(up 18.8 per cent), steel production (up 6.2 per cent) and aluminium production (up 2.9 per cent). Growth in LNG also strongly impacted fugitive emissions due to flaring and the venting of methane and carbon dioxide. The increase of 6.2 per cent in steel production also affected industrial processes and product use emissions."

And then transport just continued on slight upward trend.

While everything else reduced.

So the big driver was increase in LNG exports and a bit from steel production.

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blowfly commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 7:49pm

Relax,? Not while you're pumping put your usual lies you patronising prat. Let's talk about this one, the one you don't even bother to defend.

""Bigger picture= World emissions falling because we help other countries transition to gas"

No mate, as shown by the graph in my previous post they're not. That is an appalling fucking lie that you know is a lie and which disgraces you. Mini-Trump strikes again.......it must be true because I said it! Moronic offensive, unethical, immoral and just plain fucking dumb.

Now to the one you choose to address.

"A study completed by ANU researchers Marianna O’Gorman and Frank Jotzo following the carbon price repeal estimated that electricity emissions fell 8.2% while the carbon price was in place. The report estimated that total reductions under the carbon price were as high as 17 million tonnes in 2013,
During the two years the carbon price was in place, the Australian economy continued to grow. Australia did not see the economic disaster that Abbott and co-claimed would occur. Australian GDP grew by 2.6% each year under the carbon price. In fact, the Australian economy has been comparatively lethargic since the carbon price’s repeal, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, GDP growth in the year to March 2019 was just 1.8%, the lowest level in a decade. In the five years following the carbon price repeal, emissions have increased, energy costs are higher, and the economy has been sluggish."
https://reneweconomy.com.au/five-years-after-carbon-price-repeal-austral...

If we drill down into the detail of your claim that emission reductions stopped because of LNG exports we find this just does not add up. From 2013 the annual fugitive emissions for that sector rose from 4Mt to 9Mt. This was never enough to reverse the trend decrease of 16Mt per year that occurred while the carbon price was in place. You can work this out from the graphs in the link already provided.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 8:18pm

Loz although it's quite entertaining to read your rants, maybe you should relax with a beer before you pop an o ring. You're no use to anyone if you have a stroke or an aneurysm.

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blowfly commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 9:24pm

Aaah! Isn't that nice. So sweet of you to be concerned Mr Pandy. Hypocritical ....but sweet. I bet you feel good about yourself now...which given your personal habits (wink wink, no mention of THEM) probably doesn't happen very often. Anyway I think, in the circumstances, that I should just let you know that your concerns are totally wasted. I am in the prime of good health and my heart rate rarely shifts above a steady 60bpm as I write. So, all things considered I think the most appropriate thing would be for you to just fuck off since of all the things that you could do to improve my well being, that would be absolutely top of the list.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 9:50pm

Just remember, I'm here for you.

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tubeshooter commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 10:59pm

Let's settle this like men shall we ,,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuWxfvN5PRM

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Michael Bourne commented Sunday, 27 Sep 2020 at 11:25pm

'Just remember, I'm here for you.'

Hahahaha... I like it, lil' 'MandyM'!!!??? 'Mandy' the lil' aussie grapplin' (I just 'ad ta get it orf me 'Mandy' chest aaayyeee... I'm a farkin' grappler.... I am) ship jumper!!! And I'm bloomin' late again!! (I wooda shredded... but I'm bloomin' too late agin'!!!)

'MandyM... always grapplin' with the truth!!!

So you never answered MandyM, when you jumped ship, and Mandied up with ya mmmaaayyytee (stupe's mmmaaaayyyteee that he swore aint no farkin' mmmaaaayyytee a' mine aaayyeee), which one of you booted ya immigrant maaayyyteee out??? Ya, in ya maaayyyyteees words, 'lousy, non national, immigrant' mmmaaayytttee that was takin' houses, food, wages, from the mouths of ozzies. The mmmaaaayyte that you spilled your guts about, the one who you were sobbing about, that, having been 'educated', was forced to live like a 'stinkin', loser, low life taxi driver...

Who's ship did ya jump to then young Mandy... ya ship jumpin rat!!!!

And now ya jumpin' ship again... MindyM.... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

MandyM... just Mandyin' up... jumpin' ship again, ya lil' rat MindyM!!!

AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Monday, 28 Sep 2020 at 8:03am

Glad I make you all warm and tingly Mick, maybe this can be our song.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Monday, 28 Sep 2020 at 8:03am

Okay i should have been more particular and said the countries using our gas emissions are falling or even just said their emissions are lower than if they had not had access to our gas.

One of the main reasons our natural gas exports are up, is these countries are looking for quick ways to reduce emissions, and no it doesn't mean they aren't investing in renewables, most countries take a variety of ways to reduce emissions.

The big question is are world emissions lower with Australia providing these countries natural gas even if it affects our own emissions in a negative way?

Im pretty sure you will find that us providing gas reduces world emissions or prevents them increasing at the rates they would if they had not swapped to gas.

# Noting these countries are often developing countries with huge increases in energy demand.

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Monday, 28 Sep 2020 at 8:48am

"Im pretty sure you will find that us providing gas reduces world emissions ........."

No, just more misinformation. When everything is factored in gas is either just as bad as coal or so close as to make it an unacceptable alternative.

" It’s now clear that if the world is to meet the climate targets it promised in Paris, natural gas, like coal, must be deliberately and rapidly phased out. There’s no time for a bridge. And clean alternatives are ready."
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/5/30/18643819/climate-ch...

If you don't like that source there are numerous others that come to the same conclusion.

One of the issues you conveniently forget to mention is that the carbon dioxide from the gas has to be vented into the atmosphere during processing. In Australia that can be up to 17% of the total gas extracted. Hey I have a cure for your heroin addiction, try Fentanyl instead!

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Michael Bourne commented Monday, 28 Sep 2020 at 10:17am

I knew that you have that single on loop Mandy/MindyM, as you grapple with the truth... and life... and... and that still unanswered question as well, you sneaky lil’ ship jumpin’ rat! Meanwhile as the planet groans... who gives a stuff, she’ll be right mmmmaaayyytteee, just keep on grapplin’, in a nutshell... again and again...

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factotum commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 12:58pm

Australia is refusing to sign a global pledge to protect Earth's biodiversity.

"The Morrison Government has refused to sign a new global pledge promising "urgent and immediate" action to halt nature loss and protect Earth's crucial biodiversity, saying things are not as bad as some Green groups make out.
Ahead of the UN Biodiversity Summit this week, 64 heads of state and government promised to slash air pollution, eliminate ocean plastic and transition to more sustainable food systems by 2030.
But the Morrison government has not signed up to the pledge, joining the United States, Brazil, China, Russia, Indonesia and India in snubbing the proposal.
A spokesperson for the Prime Minister told SBS News the Federal Government had already agreed to "ambitious and achievable" goals under the Paris Climate Agreement and is aiming to reach net-zero carbon emissions "as soon as possible."
"We will not agree to other targets unless we can tell the Australian people what they will cost to achieve, and how we will achieve it," the spokesperson said.
The Prime Minister's Office also told SBS News the government is investing $18 billion in green energy by 2030 as part of its technology investment roadmap.
However, there are still oil reserves that are still to be found around Australia's coastline in the south and to our Northeast.
Signatories to the Leaders' Pledge for Nature said nature loss was wreaking "irreversible harm" to life on Earth, aggravating inequality and contributing to climate change while increasing the future risk of pandemics such as COVID-19.
Nations including Germany, France, Britain and Mexico have promised to develop an "ambitious" plan ahead of next year's UN COP15 Biodiversity Conference in Kunming, China.
"We must act now – right now. We cannot afford dither and delay because biodiversity loss is happening today and it is happening at a frightening rate,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.
“Left unchecked, the consequences will be catastrophic for us all."
"Extinction is forever – so our action must be immediate."
These actions would include ending "harmful" subsidies for fossil fuel and boosting spending for restoring wild spaces such as forests and wetlands as well as retooling global farming systems to reduce forest loss and food waste.
Currently one-third of food produced, around 1.3 billion tonnes, is lost or wasted each year.
The WWF's biennial Living Planet Index, released separately this month, showed that wild populations of animals, birds, fish and plants had plummeted nearly 70 per cent since 1970.
"Nature and biodiversity loss is so severe that it poses grave risks to our health, economy and livelihoods," said WWF International director general Marco Lambertini.
"We can't ignore it any longer, and we must act decisively."
The pledge comes just two weeks after the UN's periodic review of existing global conservation plans found that nations were set to miss all 20 targets, they set themselves back in 2010 to halt nature loss.
"Two major reports published this month conclude we are utterly failing to protect the diversity of life on Earth," said Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-chair of the international Earth Commission.
"We are failing to protect the resilience of our global commons. And we are failing to ensure a stable planet for future generations."
Campaigners are hoping for a Paris-style agreement for protecting nature to be adopted next year, with nations agreeing a global framework to halt and reverse biodiversity loss.
Notwithstanding the above the Federal Government says Australia still has a big future developing untapped oil and gas reserves that are below the seabed."

Additional reporting: AFP, Reuters

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AndyM commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 1:09pm

The Australian government should be charged with treason and crimes against humanity.

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Blowin commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 1:24pm

This alone should see Morrison dragged naked through the streets like Cersei Lannister.

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AndyM commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 1:43pm

"Australia’s fossil fuel industry will collapse within 20 years as China abandons coal imports and pledges to become carbon neutral before 2060, businessman Mike Cannon-Brookes has warned."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/29/qa-australias-fos...

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GuySmiley commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 1:54pm

.... and this, collapsing AU coal exports & prices

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/tumultuous-time-australia-s...

Call me a pinko tree hugging socialist if you like but these sort of developments do not support new coal mines like Adani

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AndyM commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 2:10pm

I bet you drink lattes on soy with a dash of turmeric Guy.

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chook commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 2:55pm

20 years? solar electricity is already cheaper than coal fired.
the runaway train of market forces is coming around the mountain right now.

not that it makes any difference....climate change is already locked in

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GuySmiley commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 3:11pm

Only when I’m at an inner suburban cafe Andy otherwise it’s an espresso :)

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Rabbits68 commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 4:45pm

David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet

Very sobering stuff. Well worth a look.

Coming out on Netflix soon I think.

Pristine

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fitzroy-21 commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 5:32pm

Yeah, Coal mining is on the brink of collapse........highly unlikely.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-29/palaszczuk-government-approves-ol...

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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 5:51pm

Fitzroy, this is a coking coal mine. Coking coal has a much better future than thermal coal. Go look at the charts over the last 5 years if you think I'm wrong.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 5:55pm

Oh thanks VL, I never knew the difference.................

Can't make steel without it.

Obviously an election coming and need to make good with their union comrades they have fallen out of favor with..

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 5:57pm

. Edit : coking coal made my previous comment pointless

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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 6:00pm

Huge difference Fitz. You can't make steel without coking coal, but you can make energy without thermal coal: Cheaper and cleaner. That's why thermal coal is a rapidly dying industry.
One of the great crimes by coal loving folk like Matt Canavan is pretending thermal coal has a future and telling blue collar people there's thermal coal jobs if it wasn't for the greenies.
This bloke could prepare the workers for a future in the clean energy industry, but he's bullshitting to them about coal, to save his job. What an arsehole.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

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fitzroy-21 commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 6:06pm

VL, I am from Sth Central Qld. Most of the countries best coal mines are a short drive from me. I have done stints in the industry and am quite well versed in the difference including a full understand of the whole process of coal mining.

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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 6:13pm

Fitz, If you want to see how the thermal industry is travelling, look at the money markets and financing industry. Quantity exported? down. price? way down. Banks willing to invest in thermal coal? none. Share prices of thermal coal companies? plummeting. Coal fired power plants? Getting closed around the world. There's literally nothing thermal coal lovers like Canavan can point to and claim the industry is in good shape. He's an arsehole for leading on thermal coal workers.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 7:19pm

It's still nothing to scoff at.

Australia's biggest value export after Iron ore (third is Gas)

And worth USD$44,427,676,000 (2019 figure)

And about doubled in the last 20+ years.

Aust second biggest exporter (after Indo) of thermal coal and biggest exporter of coking coal.

Although for some perspective on actually coal production .

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 7:57pm

Wow Indo, you managed to find a graph that didn't include the last two very important years.
Since 2018 the price went from $120 a ton to $50.
"World coal consumption fell by 0.6% (-0.9 EJ), its fourth decline in six years, displaced by natural gas and renewables, particularly in the power sector (see electricity section). As a result, coal’s share in the energy mix fell to 27.0%, its lowest level in 16 years." https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-revi...
There's a reason why the only people throwing cash at coal are shit politicians pissing away our tax dollars.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

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velocityjohnno commented Monday, 5 Oct 2020 at 4:43pm

Another Aussie good-news environmental tech story:

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/aussie-tech-gurus-driving-loc...

replaces silver with much cheaper copper in the solar cells
govt backed, aim for local production.