Climate Change

blowfly's picture
blowfly started the topic in Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 9:40am

.

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 9:40am

I couldn't find the old one so......

Anyone following climate change science would have been aware of increasing concern recently. Scientists working on the (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6), due next year have expressed concerns about new models which suggest that the potential increase in warming has been under-estimated.

These concerns are based on changes in climate sensitivity. This is the relationship between CO2 levels and temperature increases. Higher sensitivity, which is what the new models are suggesting, means greater temperature rises. The change in the models relates to cloud cover. There has always been uncertainty about the interaction between increasing temperature and clouds.

What the latest models show is cloud cover and water content decreasing as temperatures rise. This creates a feedback loop as decreased cloud cover increases the amount of sunlight reaching the surface which further increases the temperature. The increase in temperature predicted by these models is rapid and catastrophic. The average of the 20 new models shows Australia warming 4.5°C by the end of the century and 2°C by 2040.

The consequences of this amount of warming are impossible to predict with any certainty but would include reduced food production, increased disease, unprecedented heat waves, unprecedented bushfires, large areas becoming uninhabitable, collapsing ecosystems including the loss of virtually all coral…..all before considering the political and social impacts.

So when the report is published next year can we expect to see world leaders hastening to declare a real climate emergency and introduce policies to immediately and massively reduce emissions? Not likely is it?

More here
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL085782
Here
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-results-from-the-next-generat...
and here
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2020/july/1593525600/jo-lle-gergis/w...

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 11:00am

Following BB, and it’s f%@ked! :(
Last weeks 100 degrees Fahrenheit set inside the arctic circle wasn’t lost on me

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 1:25pm

Good to hear shoredump. Too many people are not paying enough attention to realise what a shithole we are being led into.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 2:04pm

Covid 19 has given us a great opportunity for a reset. We could spend money of protecting the planet's climate, but Scumo wants big shiny new weapons costing $270 bil. What a complete fucking arsehole.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

garyg1412's picture
garyg1412's picture
garyg1412 commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 2:30pm

VicLocal to put that amount of money into perspective if we used it to build schools, universities, etc and if the average building contract for each project was say $100,000,000 which is a truckload of building, then we could build 2,700 schools, universities, etc. Not that we need that many but makes your eyes water don't it.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 2:35pm

What a twat.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 2:41pm

Not much point building all this cool infrastructure if our enemies can just sail in at their leisure and take over.

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 2:49pm

The Fourth Degree

Since our global leadership seems intent on us getting there by 2100, it is worth considering what a world 4°C warmer might actually look like. It is also worth considering that even the models with the worst forecasts still give us a chance of reducing these impacts. The problem then is that we have left it very late and those in power seem content to leave a 4°C warmer world to their undoubtedly wealthy children. After all they will be able to preseve a semblance of normal life in their air conditioned cubicles in the more habitable and less degraded regions of the planet.

So yes this issue in essence boils down to a war of the developed nations against those less developed and, within each nation, of the rich against the poor. Unfortunately there will not be much middle ground so make your choice now. Morality vs survival. Ethics vs your children’s standard of living. Which side are you on? Choose now and avoid the rush as things preogressively turn to shit.

So let’s start with what has already indisputably happened. Since the 1950s the bulk of the extra heat (around 90%) produced by global warnming has been absorbed by the oceans resulting in an average increase in sea levels of 15-20cm. In many regions there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves as well as increased intensity of extreme rain events and droughts. Globally the ten hottest years on record have occurred since 1998. No surprises there, after all the record matches the earlier predictions quite accurately. So we saw it coming but were too busy adjusting our economic models to further concentrate the wealth to be bothered doing anything about it.

Now the future might be the least certain of landscapes, but somethings are more predictable than others. Climate change after all is a well understood physical process so when ten thousand of the best brains on the planet spend decades staring into their finely tuned precision crystal balls the odds are high that they will get things right, within the stated limits of error, naturally. There will always be minor uncertainties in the models but the only really significant uncertainty comes down to animal behaviour as applied to the most abundant member of the Primate family. Yes those crazy humans, who can tell what they will do next? Start a nuclear war? Carelessly spread some horrible new virus? Keep shitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in ever greater volumes, who’s to know? We can be pretty sure though, that whatever they do in terms of climate change, it will be too little and (is already) too late to avoid significant environmental change.

So a quick trip through 2100. Let’s start with the inundation of global cities just a few examples should give you the general idea. Jakarta (9.5 million), Bangkok (8.2 million), Lagos (17.5 million), Manilla (20 million), Shanghai,(25 million) Dhaka (21 million), London (9 million), Houston (2 million). Moving on we come food. Agricultural yields always decrease during climate extremes. Livestock are equally vulnerable. Floods, heat waves and drought are the main causes, all of which are expected to increase with climate change. Then we have water shortages, increased frequency of the most intense cyclones, irreversible loss of biodiversity including coral reefs (already well under way, eg The Not-So Great Barrier Reef)

In the developed world there will be adjustments and some really unpleasant surprises along the way for just about everyone. (Even worse bushfire seasons than this year’s model are now inevitable.) In the developing world there will be catastrophe upon catastrophe and greatly expanded opportunities for abject human misery. On the upside fat arrogant narcissistic bastards are expected to thrive.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 7:50pm

Just saw this website, its pretty cool shows each state energy mix live.

Currently night so no solar, but biggest surprise is how much gas we are using.

In WA right now its close to a 50/50 mix of coal and gas.

Decent chunk of gas getting used in QLD right now too.

http://www.nem-watch.info/widgets/reneweconomy/

One thing i dont get is it also shows energy demand in grey, currently TAS demand is a little higher than energy produced and SA demand a fair bit over energy produced.

Anyone got ideas on how this works?

So some houses are blacked out?

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 7:50pm

Thanks Indo. Interesting.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 7:53pm

Wonder what the "other" energy being used currently in QLD & WA is?

Do we have some bio fuels or thermal energy?

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 8:01pm

I suspect in FNQ it would be moral indignation from the perennially angry

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 8:02pm

Indo the Eastern states trade power hence demand being higher than local supply , they are importing the short fall.

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 8:03pm

Other maybe bio mass or diesel

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 8:04pm

Scrub diesel (liquid fuel)