South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 29th July)

Best Days: Most days should have periods of really nice waves across most coasts. S'ly winds Thurs/Fri will favour the points and sheltered spots, lighter winds Sat/Sun will open up options elsewhere (though Sat will still be too big for open beaches in NSW). 

Recap: Slow inconsistent 1-2ft surf across SE Qld on Tuesday perked up a little today with occasional 2ft+ sets out of the east. Northern NSW saw larger waves, peaking as high as 4-5ft across the Lower Mid North Coast on Tuesday, but it was smaller as you headed north. Steady E’ly swells maintained 3-4ft sets in Northern NSW today along with an additional S’ly swell this afternoon of a similar size. Winds have been generally early offshore with afternoon sea breezes on Tuesday, and a developing S/SE flow across Northern NSW this afternoon following early W’lies. 

Fun peelers at the Superbank Wednesday lunchtime

This week (July 30 - 31)

The forecast hasn’t gotten any less complex than what was offered Monday.

A modest S/SW fetch parallel to the Southern NSW coast will strengthen into Thursday as a new low forms in the central Tasman Sea - essentially the merging of the remnants of the previous Tasman Low (or ECL, I’m still not sure), and a southward-tracking tropical depression currently in the lower Coral Sea. 

This low will then be further reinforced with the arrival of a third system, a strong front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea, which will strengthen the new Tasman Low into quite a beast of a system, reaching a peak in intensify around Friday afternoon, before slowly dissipating into the weekend.

The low won’t be perfectly aimed for our region but its slow moving nature and close proximity will ensure a healthy spread of strong energy back across the entire East Coast.

The upshot of this is a building combination of S’ly and S/SE swell through Thursday, with the S’ly swell easing into Friday but the S/SE energy continuing to build ahead of a peak in size on Saturday. Note, this is somewhat against model forecast, which estimates a Friday morning peak and then gradual decline. Northern NSW will pick up the most size, from 2-3ft to 3-5ft on Thursday (south facing beaches south of Byron) and holding 4-5ft+ through Friday.

Also in the mix over the next few days will be an E/NE swell, generated by a broad fetch on the eastern flank of the approaching tropical depression/trough sliding down from the Coral Sea. We’re already seeing initial energy from this region, but surf size should build a little more through Thursday, holding into Friday. Most open beaches should reach around 3-5ft, though we may see slightly smaller surf in SE Qld, particularly the Sunshine Coast (this fetch is best aimed towards southern locations).

In fact, a rapid intensification of this system sometime later today (see chart below) may generate a brief pulse of slightly bigger surf on Thursday - an outside chance for a few 5-6ft sets at some reliable swell magnets, mainly on the Mid North Coast (it's best aimed towards Southern NSW, so size prospects diminish with increasing northerly latitude).

As for conditions, fresh S/SW thru’ S’ly winds are expected for the next few days but there’ll be pockets of light to moderate SW winds early morning. As such, protected points and sheltered southern ends will be your best option. 

This weekend (Aug 1 - 2)

The primary E/NE fetch responsible for the late Thurs/Fri pulse will push slightly outside of our swell window over the coming days, but there’ll be enough energy back in the South Pacific to ensure an undercurrent of user-friendly E’ly swell through the weekend. Most beaches should pick up inconsistent 3-4ft surf from this source. 

Much more dominant in the water on Saturday will be a peaking S/SE swell from the Tasman Low. South facing beaches south of Byron should see 5-6ft sets through day, easing slowly into Sunday (say, 4ft early). Elsewhere, expect smaller surf from this source, including SE Qld (though the E’ly swell will fill in the gaps nicely).

Local conditions look really good all weekend with light variable winds and moderate afternoon sea breezes (SE on Sat, NE on Sun), so it’s well worth booking in some water time both days. 

Next week (Aug 3 onwards)

The models have currently downgraded much of next week’s developments, stalling a broad cut-off low south of the continent (keeping it west of the Tasmanian divide) and also weakening another tropical depression north of New Zealand over the weekend. We’ll see fun, persistent E/NE swells through the first half of next week, somewhere in the 3ft range at exposed beaches, but no major size is expected.     

The main issue early next week will be freshening N’ly winds on Monday and Tuesday as the cut-off low west of Tasmania strengthens, but we should see NW winds by Wednesday. It probably won’t be until next weekend that we see an associated southerly swell from this system as it migrates below the Tasman Sea.

However there’s also an interesting long range E’ly swell due mid-late next week from a broad sub-tropical low developing well east of New Zealand later this week and holding over the weekend, so we’ve got plenty of long term swell prospects to keep an eye on.

More on this in Friday’s update.