Southerly swell regime kicks into gear
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 16th May)
Best Days: Northern NSW Friday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday morning, Monday morning
Yesterday's large pulse of expected S/SE groundswell only really impacted the Mid North Coast, with smaller surf seen further north, though conditions were good through the morning with offshore winds. The Goldy remained small and clean, tiny on the Sunny Coast.
A drop in size has been seen today, cleanest across the Mid North Coast, less so further north.
This week and weekend (May 17 – 20)
These notes will be brief-ish as Ben’s away on holidays.
A S'ly change pushing up the coast today will bring a new short-range S'ly swell for tomorrow, mixed in with some stronger but less consistent S'ly groundswell for the afternoon, from the earlier stages of the front when it was a polar low.
South magnets south of Byron should see 3ft+ waves tomorrow morning, kicking to a less consistent 3-4ft into the afternoon, while the Gold is due to remain small to tiny (1-1.5ft most spots, bigger at magnets).
Winds will be best around the Mid North Coast with a morning W/SW offshore, more SW around Yamba and Byron and S/SW on the Goldy.
Friday is still looking great as the S/SE and S'ly swells ease from 3ft on the sets at south magnets along with a morning W/NW offshore and weak afternoon sea breezes.
Our large long-period S'ly groundswell is still on track, with the Mid North Coast likely too see some late size across south magnets, with a peak due Saturday morning.
A severe low has been generating a fetch of storm-force W'ly winds along the polar shelf and satellite observations of this low are great. We'll see the system weaken ever so slightly while projecting east-northeast towards New Zealand this evening and tomorrow morning.
The long-period nature of the swell will likely see it focussing into some regions and not others, but keeping this in mind, south magnets south of Byron are likely to inconsistent but powerful 4-6ft sets Saturday morning, easing back through the day under a light W'ly offshore wind, giving into a S/SE change midday.
The Goldy isn't likely to pick up this swell very well at all, with northern ends and magnets coming in at 2-3ft.
Smaller leftover 3ft sets are due across south magnets on the northern NSW coast Sunday morning with a W/SW breeze, but later in the day another pulse of S'ly groundswell is expected peaking Monday morning.
This will be generated by a strong low pushing past the south-east corner of Tassie while producing a fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds.
Size wise we're probably looking at 4-5ft sets across south magnets Monday morning with a W/NW offshore, but we'll have another look at this Friday.
Monday's swell will likely signal the start of a prolonged period of S'ly groundswell energy as a strong node of the Long Wave Trough sits across the Tasman Sea, directing front after front up through our southern swell window.
The models are still shifting around regarding the timing and strength of polar fronts being projecting through our southern swell window, but there'll be no lack of swell next week. Check back Friday for the latest on this southerly swell regime.