South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 25th March)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: small E'ly swell, but SE Qld may suffer under N'ly winds on Thursday (should see NW early in some locations). Light offshore winds should occur south of Byron tho'. S'ly winds developing on Friday with protected beaches best. Sun: fun south swell in Northern NSW with early light winds. 

Recap: Small average waves on Tuesday, however we saw a building E’ly swell today that appears to be the much-earlier-than-expected arrival of east swell from TC Rueben. Buoy data confirms this with E’ly swell showing 12.5 seconds at most location (Brisbane spiking to 14 seconds later this afternoon). Northerly winds ruined the surf at many locations but some areas did see brief period of NW winds. 

This week (Mar 26 - 27)

This small, inconsistent E’ly swell from TC Rueben will dominate the next few days. Given that we’ve seen the leading edge arrive much earlier than expected, it’s plausible to expect that we may see this event plateau and trend downwards a half day earlier (or more) too.

You will have to aim for the early session on Thursday for the best waves though. Freshening northerly winds are expected in SE Qld during the day, but we should see a period of NW winds in the morning. South of about Byron, light W/NW winds are expected for much of the day (with the northerly trend kicking in later) so there should be good waves across the beach breaks. Surf size should hold around 2-3ft+ at exposed stretches but there will be long breaks between the bigger sets. 

On Friday a slow easing trend is expected from this E’ly swell. However we’re looking at a marked change in conditions, thanks to a gusty S/SE change advancing along the coast - current ETA is somewhere around Yamba or Ballina at dawn, reaching the border mid-late morning and then the Sunny Coast early afternoon. Ahead of the change (i.e. in SE Qld), winds should be moderate NW. 

Exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW will probably pick up a low quality windswell in the wake of the change, but those beaches seeing any size will be very bumpy. So, your choices will be split between early beaches (in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW), or semi-exposed points thereafter. Keep your expectations low. 

This weekend (Mar 28 - 29)

Our easterly swell from TC Rueben is expected to ease considerably by the weekend, and is not viewed as major source of swell for this period. 

Fortunately (at least for surfers with access the Northern NSW), following Monday’s slight downgrade for the weekend’s south swell, the good news is that we’ve had a slight upgrade over the last few model runs. 

The low pushing east of Tasmania on Friday looks like it’ll develop reasonably well inside Northern NSW’s south swell window. Two separate pulses of south swell are expected, one on Saturday morning (Mid North Coast) and afternoon (Far North Coast), with a second swell pushing through overnight Saturday that should still be in the water for the early session on Sunday.

We’ll also have some small short range SE swell in the mix - mainly SE Qld on Saturday - from a ridge building in the wake of Friday’s change. Don’t expect much size, strength or quality from this though, perhaps 1-2ft at most beaches with choppy 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches. It'll ease back in size on Sunday too.

Back to Northern NSW though: Saturday will probably start off small ahead of the new south swell, but once it kicks in we should see 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches. Winds look a little dicey on Saturday, maybe a brief period of early SW winds in some locations but otherwise moderate sou’westers that will cause some problems. So don't get too excited at this stage (I'll update on Friday).

Sunday looks like the pick of the weekend south of the border with early light winds and afternoon sea breezes. The south swell will be easing by this time but there should be good 3ft+ waves at south facing beaches early morning, ahead of an easing trend after lunch. Expect smaller surf at locations not open to the south, and everywhere north of about Byron Bay.

Next week (Mar 30 onwards)

Still nothing of interest beyond the weekend.

A steady procession of very strong fronts through the Southern Ocean will provide intermittent long period south swell (only small in size at the NSW south swell magnets due to the poorly aligned storm track), otherwise we’re mainly focusing our attention towards a slow intensification of the trades through the southern Coral Sea, which should provide a building easterly swell for SE Qld from about Tuesday onwards. More on this in Friday’s update.