Eyes To The North For Incoming Tropical Wave
Our ever-reliable wave of tropical activity is inbound across the north of the country this week, though it's not travelling through the ocean, rather the atmosphere.
The atmospheric wave is associated with increased instability, convection and cyclogenesis (tropical cyclones) in our tropical regions and is known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Instability forming north of the country (Himawari 8)
The MJO has a period of 30-60 days and last moved through the north of the country at the start of December. That episode produced Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper which crossed the northern Qld coast, bringing significant rainfalls and widespread flooding.
Currently, the MJO is in the Indian Ocean with two tropical cyclones forming under its influence, with our region set to follow over the coming week.
As the MJO moves further east, we're expected to see it spawn a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea, but again it doesn't look great for swell potential.
The majority of the global forecasting models have it sitting east of Cairns, too far north and west to generate swell that'll impact the south-east Queensland and NSW coast.
Tropical Cyclone activity (including genesis) for next Monday (ECMWF)
As with all long-range forecasts regarding tropical cyclones, confidence on the track and strength is low, but regardless, a deepening tropical low north of New Zealand looks to be a better swell producer for the weekend and early next week.
With the instability inbound across the country over the coming week and a bit, all eyes should be focussed on the East Coast regional Forecaster Notes for updates on the local swell and wind possibilities from the north-eastern quadrant.
Comments
Feels like the MJO's been parked across the Tweed Coast since the start of January.
Ha ha, well said!
Indeed. If only the MJO also created damn good sand formations!!
we are so desperate for some banks at my local, been here
36 yrs and never seen it like this
"The majority of the global forecasting models have it sitting east of Cairns, too far north and west to generate swell that'll impact the south-east Queensland and NSW coast." That's a little harsh to the GFS model. It's latest run certainly has swell potential, albeit a long way out (in terms of time).
00z has just gone ballistic.
Isn't the general rule to never trust GFS >3 days when there's a cyclone in the model? I recall a few years ago they had 4-5 intense cyclones between WA and New Caledonia on their long-term charts haha
Indeed, grain of salt etc.
Fair to say however that most reliable models are progging a TC next week. Just question of track is the unknown at this point.
Oh yeah, 100% there'll be one.
Craig, you're a man of influence.
A little shift favouring the wave hungry would be appreciated.
Yeah Craig, about 500ks south of Port Lincoln would be grateful.
With a La Nina outlook are we looking at good chances of cyclone swells pushing south in Western Australia this season?
If only! Still dreaming of that classic Cyclone Marcus day a few years back.
Craig have you said before something like 'the tropics are expanding' ??
Is this what that looks like ?
Indeed.
Also, I posted in the Climate Change thread, what we're seeing with the warming planet and warming at the poles is a weakening of the polar vortex.
The polar vortex traps polar air around the poles, and the stronger it is, the more contained it is.
With a weaker polar vortex we see this air escape in the form of Rossby Waves, ie bit cold outbreaks which we're seeing across Europe and the US. So larger variability in the weather and climate.
tried other weather sites, you are by far the most congenial. TFYW
Come on Craig do something.
I'm trying but the best it's done is go more into south-east QLD and with strength! :o
everyone start reserving your carpark at Noosa.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-17/cyclone-55-per-cent-chance-queens...
If Vic is getting QLD's weather then QLD is getting the Bible's...
All the board riders up in Darwin will be frothing if they get a decent wave up north.
The crossing and track all depends on how quickly that high fills into the Bight late next week/weekend.
It's going to be interesting watching over the coming days.
high in the bight influences Coral sea cyclone behaviour!? Fascinating & always learning on Swellnet. Accurate cyclone predicting, is that possible?
Yeah will muscle in and push it off to the east.
You answered my question without even asking, nice!
Off topic but - eyes further north and that low in the North Pac looks impressive
looking east atm..... The south pacific has double barrel high stretching a fetch from S. America to NZ (12000km)...
with a turbo boost below Fiji to Oz to fuel any cyclone
https://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain®ion=spacific&noofd...
Yes that’s the fetch I was referring to in the other forecast page the other day. Damn impressive length.
What model does windy run off? Potential for it to run down the coast It feels like we’re due for a cyclone down our way (fnc).. the water temp is warm enough!
On initial load it's ECMWF.
You can choose the model down the bottom of the page to see what the others are predicting.
"ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE"
Deep flaring convection.. mmmmmm.
Cyclone time, I want Cruisin to come out of the woodwork and confuse me!
Yep been waiting for his input! haha
Wait till it starts taking shape and the image porn comes in ;)
How's the cyclogenis ?
explosive cyclogenesis ?
Oh that felt good
Images please
Son returning to work in Townsville on Sunday night though
Hey Craig. Any chance you can please provide a link to the EC TC strike probability chart that you posted in the article above please. (Doesn’t have to be that date just the latest model run is fine).
Yep, here ya go!
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-tc-genesis?base_time=2024011900...
Latest EC is not good.
Thanks Craig. And I see GFS is starting to push back the deepening and tracking south of the TC in each run too. That’s never a good sign.
Barely 20 degrees in Melbourne today, about to hit 50 in the Pilbara.
Anecdotal conundrums around here.
Ghost crabs haven't bolted west, yet.
But.
Sand dunes are showing significant reserves, 100+ metres in spots eastward.
Natures prepped for a battering but the natives aren't restless yet.
Any movement in the crab population Wingo? Cyclone doesn't look quite as big or intense as the forecasts
just ran through all the models on windy, townsville looks to get a battering.
Looks like a dud now for swell production. But following it a good run of ese-se trade energy.
Tropical Cyclone Kirrily headed for Townsville - Bowen Qld ETA 25th Jan
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-cyclone-kirrily-headed-for-...
Well that sucks
rare mention of the PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It's north hemi focussed but you don't hear much about it
?t=3122&si=UAF9gJYryctck4y8Thanks Mitch, yeah the current negative PDO phase looks to have played some sort of negative interference with the current El Niño.
current long range (ACCESS i think..?) has the tropical low headed back out to sea after making landfall and looking pretty intense while tracking down and out to the East.... might send some NE swell down the NSW coast?
That would be nice ..if she heads back out to sea
and... it's gone. now continuing over land but still heading South and intensifying. looks like there's still a lot of potential paths.
Keep an eye on the developments for early February, could be another TC firing up in the Coral Sea (not great for swell again) with the MJO stalling and re-strengthening in the Western Pacific.
There's the chance for a simultaneous TC forming south of Fiji as well that would be better positioned, though we'd still need the supporting ridge.
Yep Craig
Tropicaltidbits has it b lining for nth nsw.
But we’re a long way out .
16 days for that forcast.
Why do cyclones NEVER cross the equator?? Why do they rarely form within 300 kms?
Kinda makes you go "huh?!?!" doesn't it.....
https://assets.iflscience.com/assets/articleNo/68082/iImg/66599/tropical...
That's an easy one to explain. The Coriolis Force is 0 at the equator and increases in strength away from it, being strongest at the poles.
Tropical cyclones need the Coriolis Force to really get going and to also maintain their rotation, hence falling apart when nearing the equator.
On that map you can see the effect of the Coriolis force steering storms to the left in the Southern Hemisphere and right in the Northern Hemisphere.