What's what?
The course we’re on is going to see every gloomy outcome you’ve just mentioned come to fruition regardless.
At least there’ll be daylight on the other side if we dared to reinvigorate our secondary industries through a bout of protectionism.
We might even be able to mount an independent military defence if needs ever occurred or even a sustainable food self sufficiency......fancy that .
Probably best not to mention our dependence on the generosity of foreign oil providers either -http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-04/al-qaeda-threatens-to-target-austr...
What worries me is this:
People have no idea how interconnected we are,
Therefore they have no idea what hardships they'll face,
And we're in no way prepared - united in resolve etc. - to face any sort of hardship. As a country we've never been more fragmented, the fourth estate has disappeared, we've got large swathes of people on interest only home loans, even more geared to the hilt, and the government isn't prepared for the fallout.
This ain't London 1945, stiff upper lip and all that, if shit goes down we'll be tearing each other apart.
Why Stu ?
In what way has Australia changed ?
Since when? Since 1945?
We've gone from being a homogenous culture, simple stratification being a large working class and small ruling class, all relatively united in purpose, to a radically fragmented society that's becoming more unbound by a lack of a fourth estate holding the business class to account, afflicted by the spreading pathogen of 'individualism', and we're all so distant from any hardship we've simply got no coping mechanisms, either individually or institutionally.
...the surf is more crowded too.
Nicely put and in all probability entirely correct.
Not so sure about that Stu. Certainly I would rather be here than the US or most of Europe if shit did happen. We have done much better at integrating our migrant communitities. As for being distant from hardship, I think it is hard to predict how people, individually or collectively will react under pressure. I am hardly an optimist but I think Australians are probably more likely to pull together than tear themselves apart.
This lack of faith in our chances in the face of true adversity is all the more reason to bolster our nations ability to self sustain.
Think globally act locally.
Can’t think of many better ways to preserve the planet than locally sourced and produced items or by reducing the desirability of a trillion unnecessary disposable items generated in China by increasing their price beyond that of the spontaneous impulse buy.
Protectionism would be at least as effective as a carbon pricing scheme in that regard.
Consider it an import tax to save the planet if the idea of an import tax to preserve our standard of living or our sovereign independence isn’t enough to sway you.
Well if you want to face true adversity, isolationism is as good a place to start as any. Reducing the standard of living may reduce emissions but there are plenty of other downsides as environmental protection goes out the window. Consider the effects of a rapidly growing population with zero investment in sewerage systems on water quality in your local area for a start.
......but in the meantime think about your boardshorts
https://theconversation.com/sustainable-shopping-how-to-stop-your-bather...
Thanks to 'the conversation'
tackling the big issues....or making a parody of themselves...I can't quite work it out
Meanwhile...nyt being all reasonable and stuff...
"Tariffs are not magic. Sometimes the unintended consequences at home and retaliation from overseas can be devastating. But trade wars, like shooting wars, shouldn’t be avoided with pre-emptive surrender, which is what the free-trade regime amounts to for America’s long-term security and middle-class prosperity. Steel towns throughout the Northeast and Midwest have been losing a trade war for decades because they cannot count on their leaders in Washington to fight for them.
Free trade is a clear and simple rule, and the economic theory of which it is a part is elegant and logical. But it is only a partial truth. The value of the middle class has to be weighed in political terms, not merely economic ones, and national security has a strategic logic all its own that springs from different and darker assumptions about human nature than the hopeful logic of economic efficiency.
To reduce public policy to a single dimension, as free-trade ideologues do, is foolish and dangerous. Yet it is attractive because it provides definite answers to difficult questions, even if those answers are less than complete.
Economic nationalism, on the other hand, requires constant balancing and adjustment if it is to be pursued correctly. Mr. Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs may not work. But they are a first attempt at finding an alternative to a free-trade system that has built up the People’s Republic of China while hollowing out the factory towns that once made America great."
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/opinion/trump-tariffs-economics.ht...
free trade is presented too much as an either/or by idealogues. The rest of us should be more reasonable and balanced about such issues
shutting down oil refineries so we only have four days of avvailable fuel was a way too much either/or thinking
Down right fucked up irresponsibility from both sides of politics...not to mention terribly naive
Our reliance on China is downright scary, we should be trying to diversify where we source things or send things it's never good to be so reliant on one country.
Otherwise when the China South sea issue goes to shit we are really going to be screwed.
And it is going to go to shit, its not a matter of if, its more when.
There is no perfect economic system so yes free trade does cause problems but, as the past several decades show quite clearly, it also has numerous advantages, such as lifting a billion or so people out of poverty. The problems the NYT identifies as caused by free trade are at least equally the fault of appalling policy decisions within the US itself where the concepts of a welfare net and fair wages have been undermined by the hired mouthpieces of the wealthy and the purchase of politicians votes from both parties. Trump's tariffs will only make things worse as their most likely results are fewer jobs and lower wages. I note an unjustified pessimism creeping in. Things may go to shit but the odds are still very much against it. There is sufficient opposition within the Republican Party to curb Trump's wilder policies. Globally, as might have been predicted from previous crises, North Korea have dropped their brinkmanship and despite Indo's concerns, Chinese bases in the South China Sea are increasingly recognised as part of a rebalancing of power in the region rather than posing a threat. As for the nostalgia for the 1940s and 50s, believe me you wouldn't want to go there.
Chinese bases recognised as a rebalancing of power?
By that you mean that China has lied and obfuscated to the world till they’ve achieved an irreversible domination of the SCS and now every one has to take it on the chin .
And trust them when they say they’ll never abuse that power.....like we trusted them they said they wouldn’t militarise the islands in the first place.
Are you even aware how China operates ? It’s smiles and agreements as they knife you in the back.
PS You reckon the reestablishment of a manufacturing capacity in the US will lead to less jobs and lower wages ?
Mate we’ve already been there and the US was much stronger. Unless you think it’s coincidence that the US declined in virtually every measure as China rose during the transferral of those very same industries from one to the other.
US corporate greed diminished US power and standards of living in their rush to maximise returns by offshoring all their industry. If Trump can reverse the accepted sentiment , which he has commenced doing judging by the current debates on the topic , then it’s a good step towards the road to recovery.
Australia should follow the same path.
Giving away our technical abilities, manufacturing independence and standard of living in exchange for cheap Chinese goods and the threat of subjugation - either economic or military- was never a wise decision.
Blowin, the American empire was the shortest in history. Its global dominance lasted from the end of WW2 until the end of the millennium. It wasted the opportunity to expand human rights and economic equity in the ruthless, unwise, short term self-interest of its political class and the mindless hedonism of the masses (Let's go surfing now!). China has a different agenda. For a start it is much less inclined to ill considered military interventions beyond its own borders. It also places much less emphasis on individual rights and more on the economic development of the nation as a whole. And yes they will seek to establish those values wherever they have influence. Will it be an ideal world? Obviously not, but it is the one that is coming. As a stable trading partner with deep cultural connections Australia should be able to maintain good relations without significant cultural change. History happens. Things could be headed in much worse directions! Shit I am getting fed up with lumpy, weird 2-3ft swells. Hope you are getting somethings better
Australia has deep cultural connections with China as opposed to the USA ?
I think you’ve been in Sydney too long !
China won’t need to resort to military invasion . They’ve got their diaspora and economic blackmailing to subjugate us democratically and financially without having to fire a shot. To be honest you’re starting to sound a bit like Chamberlain in 1939 to me.
I haven’t even checked the waves here for the week I’ve been back from Indo. Went Marlin fishing down the South coast a few days ago though, that was fun. Going up the Goldy tonight / tomorrow morning for the day to check out the cutting edge of surfing then next weekend I’m off to WA via the Southern Ocean.
But I think the locals here having been getting a couple . Weathers nice !
Too bad I’m looking at the next couple of hours under the car getting soaked in fish oil.
Alert but, as they say, not alarmed.
Historical footnote to US decline.
"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed, this is not a way of life....."
President Eisenhower, March 1953.
.....and we know how that turned out!
Good quote BB.
Particularly apt considering Chinas stated aim to become the worlds number one military power.
Well the fact that the US ignored that wisdom and allowed the military-industrial complex to expand its weaonry beyond any possible defensive needs and then go on a rampage around the world that continues to this day, might just explain why China and other nations feel the need to build up their own military.
The US never threatened China.
Instead the US’s blind spot for corporate avarice has enriched them and enabled them to chase a seat on the iron throne.
No one is threatening China currently. The exponential expansion of their military is obviously a means to pursue the overt intimidation tactics you so despise.
It’s going to get hectic if Vietnam or someone similar chooses to reject China’s economic leverage of their domestic politics . That’s when the US will step in just like the Korean War.
And we’ll have the unfortunate opportunity to see whose really won the hearts and minds of the Chinese diaspora residing in Australia .
https://www.ft.com/content/fb2b3934-b004-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4
“This has given a boost to United Front efforts to woo overseas Chinese. Even though more than 80 per cent of around 60m overseas Chinese have taken on the citizenship of more than 180 host countries, they are still regarded as fertile ground by Beijing. “The unity of Chinese at home requires the unity of the sons and daughters of Chinese abroad,” says the teaching manual.
It recommends a number of ways in which United Front operatives should win support from overseas Chinese. Some are emotional, stressing “flesh and blood” ties to the motherland. Others are ideological, focusing on a common participation in the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese people”. But mainly they are material, providing funding or other resources to selected overseas Chinese groups and individuals deemed valuable to Beijing’s cause.“
United Front being a department of the Chinese government.
Can you ever imagine the outcry if Australian government made this kind of statement . If you’re under any doubt as to the contrast between our cultures ....
"rebalancing of power "
Wow thats a unique way to look at things.
China's claims in South China sea are a complete joke the nine dash line is just unbelievable it goes beyond greed.
The whole world should ban together and tell China to get farked and split up the sea borders as even and fairly as possible between all the countries in dispute.
But we all don't want to stir up shot because we have let ourselves become so reliant on China.
So it is fine for the US to totally ignore international law to invade Iraq and Afghanistan for domestic political purposes and to have massive military bases with nuclear weapons all around the world but if China breaks international law to establish bases on the trade route that carries a huge percentage of its trade, well shit we can't have that can we? As for the US never threatening China, maybe read a bit more about the Korean War or that for the entire Cold War period any attack from Russia would have caused massive retaliation against both Russia and China, even when there were major disputes between them. So Indo if having every major city in your entire country permanently targeted with nuclear weapons that would be fired if ANOTHER country attacked the US, if that isn't a threat then what is? Read some history some time.
There are some historical precedents at present. Arms race build up in navies in the Asian area is on in earnest. RAN seems to have shopped well, with great increase in capability. Similar happened from about 1934 onward prior to WW2 for the world's navies.
Secondly, don't write off the US just yet - Imperial Germany similarly overshadowed Britain in the lead up to WW1. Population, steel capacity, size of economy - the Germans were larger in all. But Britain controlled the sea, and instituted a blocade they ultimately guaranteed at Jutland. The Chinese now pip the States for raw industrial production, have larger population, and economy size I think just went in their favour too. But the USN controls the sea. Last time round Admiral Nimitz flawlessly put into play 'War Plan Orange' once it all started. And now Trump is both relocating industry back home, and building up the USN as allies also build theirs.
Now to the silly stuff. There's a difference between free trade and unbalanced trade, and in pursuing the former Australia has ended up with the latter and lost its largest manufacturing industry and much of its refining capacity. D'oh. There will have to be antipodean MAGA.
& cultural ties - Anglosphere nations are tied by common descent, the English Language, Common Law and individual liberty codified into this Law; they are custodians of logic and reason-based thought handed down from Greece and Rome, nurtured through the Enlightenment. They have a history of banding together in alliances. They have a history of valuing individual life and property. It's very pleasant to live in this societal setup, and many want to come to these nations as a result. With respect to wonderful things like Xi Gong, it's a very tenuous claim to state Australia is culturally closer to China. To top that off, I'm physically closer to Antarctica as well.
I did not claim that Australia's cultural ties to China are stronger than those with the Anglosphere, only that they are strong. Nor am I sure that there is any valid comparison with the pre-WW1 conditions. China's very existence was threatened by the irrational nuclear policies of the US in the mid-20th century. Prior to that they were invaded by Japan and attacked by Russia. In the circumstances it is to be expected that they will build a military capacity large enough to prevent such things occurring again.
Coincidentally the SMH app is running a review of Daniel Ellsberg's book today that confirms most of what I said in earlier posts about US threats to China.
Blind boy, you know I'm no fan of the orange man..... But jesus.... Your view on China is unhinged.
Meanwhile, closer to home, NSW joins Qld in raping what's left of the bush.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/11/nsw-laws-that-mak...
Why sheepdog? Because I try to consider their historical perspective and don't believe that US hegemony is the best of all possible worlds?
Keep making sense BB.
Historical perspectives are reflective of the past.
In the past China didn’t have military bases in Africa. China wasn’t extorting it’s neighbors into abandoning their rights to the South China Sea . China wasn’t making economic overtures towards distant lands such as Norway and the Pacific Islands in order to establish safe havens for further military forward positions . China wasn’t undercutting world trade with its state sponsored IP theft and flooding markets with goods produced below cost by its domestic indentured servants in order to cripple the productive capacity of competing nations. China wasn’t perfecting the art of technological sabotage of sovereign nations . China wasn’t infiltrating and corrupting the systems of government and societies of foreign nations. China wasn’t in the process of subjugating the world through which ever means necessary.
That’s why it’s a very poor option to use history as any guide to China’s future intentions.
Absolutely right Blowin, It was the US and European nations doing those things. My point is not that we should allow China free rein but their actions need to be seen in context. The politicians and media always want us to be afraid of something. It sells papers, helps politicians get elected and boosts the weapons industry. Reality is that most politicians would almost certainly agree with my position in private. If the islands in the South China Sea are such a big deal no-one seems alarmed enough to do anything.
"Troops from India and China were locked in a 73-day-long standoff in Doklam from June 16 last year after the Indian soldiers stopped the building of a road in the disputed area by the Chinese Army. The face-off ended on August 28.
Sources said China has been keeping its troops in north Doklam and significantly ramping up its infrastructure in the disputed area.
In January, Army Chief Gen. Bipin Rawat had said the time had come for India to shift its focus from borders with Pakistan to the frontier with China, indicating that situation along it was worrying."
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-china-border-still-sensitive-can-e...
After all the misplaced hand wringing about Trump becoming a tyrannical dictator, Xi Jinping has just made himself unelected dictator for life in China and not a word .
He was unopposed after his gaoling of all of his opponents guilty of corruption. Yet his state owned corporations still don’t seem to have any problem operating with the same MO that he claims to want to eradicate . Just ask Andrew Robb.
It sure does take an admirable amount of discipline to maintain the selective vision required to remain an unrelenting Sinophile these days.
Straw man! I never said anything about Trump becoming a dictator. My concerns were about the dangers of his incompetent and irrational behaviour, unlikely faults in any Chinese leader!
You alluded to it and stated that he would destroy democracy and was a proto fascist.
Of course none of that ever came to pass and was never going to but China’s dictator for life has surpassed all of these threats and you’ve not a single bad word for the situation.
I’m really starting to believe you’re a Sinophile .
Oh no , China’s dictator for life isn’t incompetent.
He’s perfectly capable of following through on his promise to mould the globe into a suitable shape for China to dominate, subjugate and run as their own little plaything.
China’s blood must run pure and rise to the prominence it deserves !
Their sentiments, not mine. You know it’s funny , but when the Australian patriot front or US White supremacists whatever they call themselves spout garbage like that you find it abhorrent. Then when the Chinese leader says the same thing you believe he’s a stable genius.
Well Dirk Ziff has stated that it’ll cost $10K for 5 waves at his surf ranch with accomodation, meals and a dressing room locker thrown in.
For that we can be grateful as he’s given a handy starting point for negotiations on his use of the Aussie coastline as a venue to host his private business of the WSL.
So taking Margie’s as an example to run the men’s at the MINIMUM wave requirements of 2 waves per competitor / heat that equals 220 waves to run a contest out at a single break.
By his calculations he’ll be required to pay at least $440,000.00 just to guarantee his 220 waves at main break alone . Backup venues will incur an additional fee .
Of course use of the foreshore , car parks and control of access will incur additional costs. As will any extra waves required. Advertising of the event places additional surfer burden on existing crowded lineups in the area and so a levy will be placed to compensate recreational surfers in the region for any inconvenience arising from further crowding .
Any warmup surfs by professional surfers or photography utilised for any commercial means will be charged a fee accordingly.
In the spirit of reciprocation all attending surfers will be granted free accomodation at the Prev camp ground on an unpowered site with meals provided at the camp kitchen.
Welcome to privatisation, Dirk.
Blowin, you are talking to yourself. You put words I never said in my mouth and then attack me for saying them. My position on China is that, given its economic power, it is inevitable that it will seek to exert its influence. No doubt at times this will be malign, but it has a long, long way to go to do anything comparable to the damage the US has done. Sinophile? Not really, just a realist who refuses to take the views of vested interests, Murdoch media or compromised politicians, at face value. Waves still pus here.
When u a-holes lay off the zirk dirfer?? He not makey money. He know Chinese empress for life..
BB writes - "Not really, just a realist who refuses to take the views of vested interests, Murdoch media or compromised politicians, at face value."
And Kudos......
But here's the catch.... The "american way" , or "western way" allows you to do so. That's the biggest joy of our system for all of its faults. And what you see about China is only what they allow you to see. You wouldn't last long under their way of life BB, but under our way of life, you are still free to be a heretic like me.
And yes, since ww2 and the criminal bombing of hiroshima and nagasaki, the USA has killed countless millions in its empirical march, including many of their own.... But thats a small fraction compared to the amount China has killed in the same time. 50 million under Mao alone. Then theres the tiger penises, rhino and elephant horns, turning Africans against Africans... How many people killed in the ivory trade, just so some rich old china man can have a placebo erection?
But WAIT!!!!! There's MORE!!!!!..... One of your major gripes of the world is climate change, BB.... As we speak, China is building 700 NEW coal power plants ACROSS the world, including being the builders in Egypt, Pakistan, and Iran...
http://www.mining.com/chinese-companies-build-700-coal-plants-outside-ch...
But please.... Continue with freely attacking the west... I do.... I just wont use China as a glowing example of "how to get things done".
It would be nice if, just once and awhile, the people disagreeing with me actually argued against what I have said, instead of some radically distorted version of it. I live in hope.
I live in hope that perhaps a question will be answered with more than a "but they did it so why cant china".
Go back to indos questions, and fair questions they were. Your answer was
"So it is fine for the US to totally ignore international law to invade Iraq and Afghanistan for domestic political purposes and to have massive military bases with nuclear weapons all around the world but if China breaks international law to establish bases on the trade route that carries a huge percentage of its trade, well shit we can't have that can we?"
Basically that can be compacted to "hey china should be allowed to be asshats because the USA are. " If you think that is "distorted", well fine. Talk to Phillipino fisherman about my distortion.
Yes, the USA's actions have been disgraceful.... NO DOUBT.... So has Russia... But its a hypothetical furfy to say China is expanding its military might due to the USA. If anything, the USA's power has halted other big countries expanding, TILL NOW.
........and look what they did with that dominance, took a great opportunity and squandered it in ill conceived adventuring. You may have noticed that morality is not xactly a main consideration in the behaviour of super powers. My point has nothing to do with right and wrong, only that now China has the power to compete with the US, it will. Secondly, that this does not pose any obvious or immediate threat to Australia.
Maybe my view is a bit idealistic and not realistic?
But it is true that China is becoming a real super power and we are fueling this by being some reliant on China for trade (both ways) we don't have to go to war in a military sense with China.
But IMHO we should not putting all our eggs in the China basket and actually focussing trade with the countries that are in conflict with China in the South China sea, in effect making them stronger and helping them develop.
Then if shit does hit the fan in the area be it in the ten to twenty years time and other countries need to get involved because China is pushing things to far its not going to hurt us as much if shit hits the fan, which i think at some point it will have to be it 5, 10, 15, 20 years or more.
So why “ God fuck Amerika “ but not “ God fuck China “ ?
Indo and I agree on something !!!!!!!!!! wtf?????? bahahahahahahaha.
There were many apologists and appeasers for Germany in the 1930s..... "Godwin" they scream.
As for "Secondly, that this does not pose any obvious or immediate threat to Australia."
Wow...... You're not Sam Dastyari are u BB???????
Sheepy you are doing well to point out the flaws in the argument "If Superpower A can do bad things, so can Superpower B".
To be fair to BB, his words have been taken beyond their face value. But I just don't see the deep cultural ties - I see a flood of money buying up property so native Commonwealth of Australia kids have a much harder time buying a home where they grew up (said money is fleeing China, why?); I see the huge amount of cheap imports sending domestic manufacturers out of business; I see sycophants doing all they can to sell off productive parts of the country (had 2 on a work flight next to me once, they were embarrassed when I asked if they were buying the mine...); and I see "The Glorious Foundation for ".
If there's more to it, I'd like to hear what it is.
vj you miss the argument. If superpower A does bad things then so WILL superpower B up to the point where the disadvantages of resistance from other powers overcome the advantages. It is not a matter of "should" and morality, if it is considered at all is a third order issue. For the rest I suppose one of the standard measures of losing a political argument is to bring up the Nazis. If there are any parallels at all between Germany in the 1930s and China today, they are thin on the ground and largely irrelevant. Complaining about cheap imports is all very well but utterly pointless unless you are prepared to cop large price rises on every consumer item to fund the higher costs of producing them in Australia, which equals lower standard of living. Try selling that one at the next Federal Election. Trumponomics has a very short use by date.
Huh ?
Paying higher prices doesn’t lead to poorer standards of living if the difference is distributed amongst Australians. Quite the opposite.
An existing measure of protectionism that Australia currently employs is the minimum wage. A higher minimum wage leads to an across the board higher standard of living. As evidenced by the previous 70 years of our history before we tried competing with the slave masters of SE Asia.
A return to a protected domestic manufacturing base will provide many well paid jobs.
Unfortunately our wages and standard of living are under constant attack from many points under the major political parties that choose to sell our nation down the river . Just another example of their devious tactics coming to fruition and white anting our society at its base :
https://www.smh.com.au/business/careers/rampant-underpayment-of-workers-...
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