Large windy weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday July 8th)

Best Days: Monday, Tuesday for the keen Perth and Mandurah, Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing mid-period SW swell tomorrow with strong N/NW tending W/NW winds (N/NE early Perth and Mandurah)
  • Large mix of mid-period and W/SW groundswell building Sunday with strong W/SW winds, tending SW and easing later
  • Easing large mix of swells Mon with light E/NE tending NE winds
  • Easing surf Tue with W/NW winds in Margs, N/NE in Perth and Mandurah throught he AM
  • Building mid-period W/SW swell Wed with NE tending NW winds, larger and peaking Thu AM with possible W winds

Recap

A bit less size but great conditions across the South West yesterday with surf to 4-6ft and 2ft waves across Perth and Mandurah. An inconsistent mid-period SW swell filled in later and has held today with similar sized waves across all locations, 1-1.5ft in Perth.

A slightly stronger pulse of SW swell is due this afternoon with sets more towards 5-6ft in Margs but with strengthening N/NE winds.

This weekend and next week (Jul 9 - 15)

This afternoon's increase in swell will ease through tomorrow but conditions will be poor with strong N/NW winds ahead of a W/NW change into the afternoon. Perth and Mandurah should see early N/NE breezes but poor conditions with the small swell.

Sunday will be a write-off across all locations with strong W/SW winds as the low and frontal progression pushes in from the west, bringing with it a large increase in groundswell and mid-period energy.

The low linked to this swell is a little poorly structured but it's still generating a good fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW-SW winds and will produce large surf into Sunday afternoon, reaching 10-12ft across the South West, 4ft in Mandurah and 3-4ft across Perth.

The frontal progression will clear fairly rapidly to the east on Monday allowing winds to swing offshore across all locations.

Winds should swing E-E/NE across all locations, tending N/NE in Margs through the afternoon with NE afternoon breezes in Perth and Mandurah.

Our large mix of swells will ease back from the 10ft range in the South West, 3ft to possibly 4ft across Mandurah and 3ft in Perth.

Tuesday looks average as winds shift to the W/NW as the next front pushes in and clips us, though Perth and Mandurah should see better N/NE morning winds. The weekend's swell will continue to ease with fading 2ft sets in Perth and Mandurah.

Later in the day but more so Wednesday, a new pulse of mid-period SW and W/SW swell are due to fill in, generated by the clipping front. The front will actually be a low in its earlier stages, generating a healthy fetch of gale-force winds, weakening on approach to us. We'll see a large groundswell for Thursday but ahead of this the mid-period energy on Wednesday.

Margs should build to 6ft+ through Wednesday afternoon and with what looks to be light NE tending NW winds, 2-3ft in Mandurah and 2ft across Perth. Thursday looks stronger, easing from 6-8ft in the South West, 2-3ft across Mandurah and 2ft in Perth.

Winds may shift back onshore with a trough on Thursday but we'll have to review this.

Longer term the outlook is a little less certain but mid-latitude lows continue to push through the southern Indian Ocean bringing plenty of swell and with varying winds. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!