Easing surf ahead of an XL swell next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday April 29th)

Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday morning in the South West, Monday morning Mandurah, Tuesday protected spots, Wednesday, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized S/SW swell easing tomorrow with light E/NE-NE tending N/NW then SW winds
  • Smaller Sun AM with light E/NE winds and sea breezes
  • Late increase in SW and S/SW groundswells Sun, peaking Mon AM with freshening SW tending stronger S/SW winds in the South West, light E/SE early Perth and Mandurah
  • XL SW groundswell filling in Tue, peaking into the PM with fresh S/SE-SE winds, strengthening into the PM
  • Easing SW groundswell Wed with strong E winds, easing
  • Easing surf with morning offshores Thu and Fri

Recap

Poor surf with onshore winds across all locations yesterday, easing into the afternoon providing improving conditions across both Perth and Mandurah with 2-3ft sets, poor all day in the South West.

Today our large, upgraded S/SW groundswell is in the water with strong 10-12ft surf across the South West, improving with winds shifting light E, only small early to the north and to 2ft or so but kicking a little better now.

This weekend and next week (Apr 30 - May 6)

Our large S/SW groundswell has peaked and we’ll see it easing into this afternoon, dropping fairly steadily through tomorrow, smaller into Sunday.

The fairly rapid drop in size will be due to the initially slow moving low generating the swell whisking east and out of our swell window yesterday.

We should still see good 6ft+ sets on the south magnets in the South West, smaller elsewhere with easing sets from 2ft in Mandurah, 1-2ft across Perth. A light, variable E/NE-NE breeze is due in the morning, shifting N/NW ahead of weak SW sea breezes.

Similar winds are due into Sunday morning but with smaller surf ahead of a new pulse of mid-period SW swell and S/SW groundswell into the afternoon.

These two swells will be generated by separate lows, the S/SW energy a strong but tight polar low firing up late in our swell window today to our south-southwest. The SW energy will be generated by a small low firing up south-west of us, generating W/NW gales and size wise nothing major is due in Perth and Mandurah but Margs should build back to 6ft later Sunday, with 6ft+ sets Monday morning. Mandurah only looks to see 1-2ft sets Monday, 1-1.5ft in Perth.

Winds will shift onshore Monday as a front clips the South West, bringing freshening SW tending stronger S/SW winds, lighter and E/SE early in Perth and Mandurah.

This front will be linked with a significant SW groundswell and strong low moving through our swell window from today into early next week.

A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds are being generated with the low due to ease while projecting east-northeast towards as on the weekend.

An extra-large SW groundswell is due from this low, arriving Tuesday morning and peaking into the afternoon to a solid 12ft+ (15ft cleanups on the magnets), with 4ft surf in Mandurah and 3ft+ waves across Perth.

Protected spots will be cleanest as a high moves in behind the front on Monday, bringing fresh S/SE winds, tending SE for periods in the morning, strengthening into the afternoon and then tending SE late in the day.

Wednesday looks excellent with strong though easing E-E/SE winds and easing levels of SW groundswell from 10ft+ in the South West, 3ft across Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth.

Following this swell the surf will fade into the end of the week with persistent offshore winds owing to the slow movement of the high.

Longer term there’s nothing too significant on the cards unfortunately, so make the most of the current and coming swells. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Friday, 29 Apr 2022 at 5:36pm

Massive Tuesday and early Wednesday by the sounds of it. Whats the best size for quality Mainbreak? What about the wind, will we be witnessing Mainbreak about as good as it gets, with quality surfers in the water too?

trevbucky's picture
trevbucky's picture
trevbucky Saturday, 30 Apr 2022 at 1:30am

We’ll in the old days when the Pro surfers surfed the left at Main break, the answer was “as big as it gets”. Now with the right mainly being the contest wave I’m thinking about 8-12 foot (16-24 foot up the face)?

Watch this from 1990:
Watch “1990 Margaret River Pro Archives” on Vimeo:

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 1:29pm

Much longer boards back in the day hey trev. Hopefully Tuesday and Wednesday will deliver the goods, looking forward to it.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 29 Apr 2022 at 5:49pm

Here's hoping they don't wrap it all up before Tuesday!!

waznyinc's picture
waznyinc's picture
waznyinc Monday, 2 May 2022 at 11:02am

What about the box on Tuesday or Wednesday? Does that work as that will definitely pull more viewers instead of watching massive round lumps.