Mostly small surf with a few windows of favourable winds ahead
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed October 27th)
Best Days: Fri morning and Sat morning all have good winds with small surf
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small window of good winds Fri AM and Sat AM with modest surf
- Larger pulse Sun/Mon next week but suspect winds
- Onshore winds remain a problem next week
Winds have been kinder than expected through the last 48hrs with an offshore flow both mornings before S’ly winds kicked in. Tuesday saw some solid 6ft sets in the Margarets area, smaller 2-3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. That size has now eased back with 3-4ft surf in the exposed SW of the state, smaller 2-3ft in Perth with onshore winds in Perth and an offshore flow down in the Margarets region through the morning.
This week and next week (Oct 27- Nov5)
A weak low and associated troughs are now moving inland with a high pressure ridge bringing S’ly winds to the SW of the state. Those winds tend more SE through Fri as the high begins to elongate and move under the state.
Residual swell from the Indian Ocean maintains a small signal in the 3ft range for the rest of the week, with S’ly winds likely to tend more SE through Thurs PM as the high pressure ridge sets up.
Winds improve further on Fri, as they tend more E/SE through the day.
A coastal trough then brings flukey winds for the weekend with a slight bump in swell Sat and a morning NE wind expected before the trough brings a W’ly flow, possibly tending N through NW as it clocks aropund.
Swell production has been suppressed by an unfavourable node of the long wave trough and that is expected to partially break down over the weekend with a moderate strength storm located in the region between 80-100E between 40-50S. Seas in the 20ft range develop and while the fetch is not well aligned for WA (apart from the last kick in the storm), being aimed more towards Antarctica, radial spread away from the source is expected to see a moderate S swell in the 5ft range arrive later Sun in the 5ft range at exposed breaks, peaking in the 6ft range Mon, before easing.
Winds don’t look great as the remnants of the storm ride up as a front and bring more onshore winds to the SW of the state through Sun and Mon, possibly tending S’ly for a brief period during the day. It’s not a favourable pattern for the SW.
Longer term and the storm track becomes more active in the Central and South-Eastern Indian Ocean next week, with several storms expected to deliver more moderate sized surf from next weekend. We’ll drill down on the details of those swells as models firm on details and we get a better picture of the wind scenarios.
Check back Fri for a fresh and full update.