Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday June 25th)

Best Days: Tomorrow Surf Coast (more so from later morning onwards), Friday (afternoon to the east), Saturday, Sunday, Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized mix of swells easing slowly tomorrow with W/NW winds to the west (SW tending W/SW winds to the east)
• Small-mod sized S/SW swell for Fri AM, easing with N/NW-NW tending weak NE winds
• Moderate + sized mix of SW groundswells building Saturday, strongest later and into early Sun, easing
• N/NW-NW winds Sat (possibly tending lighter N to the east into the PM), similar Sun
• N/NW winds Mon, tending variable ahead of a late S/SE change
• Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell for Tue PM and Wed AM but with strong S winds

Recap

The surf bottomed out through yesterday with tiny, clean conditions on the Surf Coast, wind affected and to 2-3ft to the east with nothing of any real quality.

This morning we’ve got a moderate sized increase in W’ly groundswell mixed in with some mid-period energy and the Surf Coast is coming in at a jumbled 3ft to occasionally 4ft (looks better 4ft now) with clean surface conditions.

We’re expected to see a strong SW change by lunchtime so hit up the morning surf for the best of it.

This week and next (Jun 26 - Jul 4)

The strong, mid-latitude frontal progression linked to the current weather and building swells (along with great snow dumps) will push further east through today, bringing with it a strong SW change around midday and additional increase in localised SW windswell.

We’ll see this mix of swells easing through tomorrow while drawing out in period, and winds are now looking better with the clearing front due to bring variable W/NW winds across the Surf Coast (SW to the east) that look to persist all day.

With this we can expect early lumpy surf, improving and cleaning up through the day with the afternoon likely to come in fairly good.

Size wise the Surf Coast should ease back from 3-5ft with 6ft+ sets to the east, smaller into the afternoon, while into Friday morning, we’ve still got our pulse of S/SW swell due, though it looks to come in more mid-period and a little under Monday’s expected size.

A polar fetch of S/SW gales last night generated this swell, with the Surf Coast due to come in at 3ft or so in the Morning, 4ft+ to the east, easing through the day.

Local winds for this system look great and N/NW-NW through the morning, favouring the Surf Coast ahead of weak NE winds into the afternoon, providing improving surf to the east after lunch.

We then look to the weekend’s SW groundswell and the east-southeast tracking low from the southern Indian Ocean, linked to this swell, is now currently positioned south-west of Western Australia and east-northeast of the Heard Island region.

This system will continue tracking towards the polar shelf today, aiming a great fetch of W/SW gales through our south-western swell window before re-strengthening tomorrow. An additional fetch of stronger severe-gale to near storm-force W’ly winds are due to projected east, with two separate pulses of SW groundswell due, the strongest and best into later Saturday/Sunday morning.

Saturday morning looks to come in smaller but still a good 3-4ft across the Surf Coast with 6ft sets to the east, with the later arriving swell pulsing to 5ft on the sets to the west (6-8ft to the east), then easing Sunday from 3-5ft and 6ft to possibly 8ft respectively west and east of Melbourne. 

The easing trend will then be delayed into Monday thanks to a healthy trailing front generating a reinforcing swell, but coming back to the local winds and N/NW-N tending NW winds are due on the Surf Coast Saturday with winds possibly tending lighter N’ly to the east into the afternoon, similar Sunday.

Monday looks slightly different with a morning N/NW breeze expected to tend variable ahead of a trough and S/SE change, though its arrival proper might be delayed until Tuesday.

Longer term, another good pulse of longer-range SW groundswell is due Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday but with what looks to be onshore S’ly winds as a low forms off the East Coast, more on this Friday.