Victorian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday May 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large, easing swell Thurs with rapidly improving conditons west of Melbourne
• Good waves at protected spots east of Melbourne on Thurs
• Light winds and easing swells Fri, with a reinforcing pulse Sat, easing Sun, favourable for both coasts
• Small leftovers Mon/Tues
• Small new groundswell Wed
• Better groundswell Thurs
• Potentially very large surf next weekend

Recap

New groundswell lines provided clean 4ft sets west of Melbourne on Tuesday, with a further size increase today building from 3-5ft to 5-6ft (and more size likely on dark). East of Melbourne managed 5-6ft sets on Tuesday and 6-8ft today with good mid-week waves inside Western Port. Winds were N/NE for most of Tuesday and freshening NW this morning ahead of a gusty W’ly change that reached Aireys Inlet at noon (gusting 38kts at 1:50pm). 

Tuesday was very fun

This week (May 8 - 9)

Today’s strong groundswell is expected to peak overnight or early Thursday morning before easing slowly through Thursday. 

Regionally, we’re still looking at fresh to strong W/SW winds through Bass Strait however local topographical effects on the Surf Coast will result in a little less strength, and swing in the direction around to the W/NW through the morning - so conditions should improve from this afternoon though there may be the odd wobble through the lineup at exposed spots. 

Early 6ft+ sets at the Surf Coast swell magnets will ease to 4-5ft through the day. 

East of Melbourne, the open beaches (much like today) will remain too big and wind affected but this combo is favourable for Western Port where we’ll see another great day of waves, though with an easing size trend.

Light variable winds are then expected on Friday with the Surf Coast throttling back to 3-4ft and the open beaches east of Melbourne probably still a touch overpowered around 5-6ft. As such protected locations along the Peninsula and Island may continue to be your best options here, despite the dwindling surf size. 

This weekend (May 10 - 11)

Saturday’s reinforcing W/SW swell is still on the cards, originating from a broad pre-frontal W/NW fetch developing in the Southern Ocean now, below Western Australia.

Even though the fetch is poorly aligned, it is quite broad, long and strong, and will be working on the active pre-existing sea state from the current frontal progression, which should assist swell generation. 

Surf consistency from this source won’t be high however I’m still expecting the Surf Coast swell magnets to see occasional 3-4ft sets on Saturday, with 4-6ft sets east of Melbourne.

Surf size will then ease on Sunday (early 2-3ft sets west of Melbourne, 4ft to the east, smaller later).

As for conditions, a weak high pressure system should maintain light variable winds both days, if anything trending NE on Saturday and N/NW on Sunday though without much strength. 

So, it’s shaping up to be a really nice weekend of waves across both coasts, ideal for the beachbreaks too. 

Next week (May 12 onwards)

Smaller, residual swells will pad out the first few days of next week thanks to an inactive storm track through the Southern Ocean from later this week into the weekend. Weak high pressure over the state will maintain light winds so it’ll be an ideal time to scope out the exposed swell magnets for some fun small waves. 

Later Monday and early Tuesday, a new long period swell may reach the coast, generated by a small but tight low passing near Heard Island tomorrow. However the small fetch length and enormous travel distance means it probably won’t eventuate in much size throughout Victoria. The only reason it’s worth mentioning is because with locally light winds and a lack of significant pre-existing swells, it’ll probably be noticeable at the wave buoys with a jump in peak period to 18+ seconds - so my point is, don’t get excited about it. 

Interestingly, a slightly better swell generated by the latter stages of this low (passing under Australia on Sunday and Monday) will generate a better SW tending S/SW swell for Wednesday that could produce some slow 2ft+ sets in Torquay, and 3-4ft east of Melbourne. I'll take a closer look at this on Friday. 

Thursday onwards is where things start to become more interesting.

Another strong conveyor belt of Southern Ocean fronts will develop around Heard Island on Sunday and move through our swell window, but this time they’ll strengthen closer to the mainland - unfortunately a little more westerly in alignment than is ideal, but probably strong enough to override some of these directional deficiencies (for the Surf Coast, anyway). 

This is expected to generate a stronger swell for the region on Thursday around 4ft at the Surf Coast swell magnets, with bigger 6ft+ sets east of Melbourne, though winds will probably swing around to the west as the associated front clips the coast.

We’re then looking an amplification of the Long Wave Trough into next weekend that’s on track to deliver a very large swell across the entire region, if current model guidance holds true (see below) we could be looking at 10ft sets (or more!) along the Surf Coast, though it’s still a very long time away. So let's be cautious for now with our expectations, but pencil it into the diary. 

I’ll have more on that in Friday’s update. See you then!