Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday May 2nd)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow, Sunday exposed breaks, later Monday but more so Tuesday, Wednesday morning Surf Coast, Thursday, Friday Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small-mod sized S/SW groundswell for early tomorrow, easing then small to tiny Sun
• Moderate N winds tomorrow, tending N/NW at times to the west, and N/NE to the east into the PM)
• Strengthening N/NE winds Sun AM, easing into the PM
• Moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswell arriving Mon PM, kicking later, peaking overnight/Tue AM
• Secondary reinforcing W/SW swell for Tue AM
• Strong N winds Mon, tending N/NW to the west into the PM
• Fresh N-N/NW tending weaker NW-W/NW winds Tue
• Mod-large W/SW groundswell building Wed, peaking in the PM, easing Thu
• Strong NW tending W/NW then W/SW winds Wed, strong N/NW tending W/NW winds Thu
• Easing surf Fri with NW tending W/NW winds

Recap

The beaches started to improve through yesterday though by the time the tide got to a nice level to the east, sea breezes started to kick in.

Today we’ve got smaller, cleaner surf across all locations with options all over and some new mid-period SW swell is due into the afternoon as winds tend variable.

This weekend and next week (May 3 - 9)

While a small lift in mid-period SW swell is expected this afternoon, a better but short-lived S/SW groundswell should be in the water tomorrow morning. The source of both of these swells was a strengthening frontal system come polar low, tracking south-east towards the polar shelf while intensifying.

A fetch of severe-gale W’ly winds should produce 3ft sets across the Surf Coast tomorrow morning with 4-5ft waves to the east, easing through the day and moderate N winds will blow all day, likely tending N/NW at times to the west and N/NE to the east (more so afternoon).

Strengthening N/NE winds are due Sunday as the swell fades, best across the exposed beaches with winds easing into the afternoon.

Now, moving into next week and we’ve got multiple pulses of westerly swell inbound, owing to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough strengthening across Western Australia.

This is steering a strong polar frontal system up and towards that state, with a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds being generated through our western swell window.

A moderate sized, though very inconsistent W/SW groundswell is expected from this source for later Monday, with a secondary mid-latitude frontal system pushing in under the Bight through Sunday, producing a more consistent, reinforcing W/SW for Tuesday.

These first swells look to come in around the 3-5ft range across the Surf Coast and 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east, with Monday’s increase only being seen later in the day with Tuesday morning being more reliable size wise.

Tertiary frontal activity moving in, under the country Tuesday should produce a better, broader fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds and with this we’ll see a moderate to large W/SW groundswell filling in Wednesday, peaking through the afternoon and then easing Thursday.

Larger surf in the 6ft+ range is due from this source later Wednesday on the Surf Coast with 8ft+ waves to the east, easing slowly from 5-6ft and 6-8ft on Thursday morning.

Local winds through this whole period look favourable with strong N’ly winds Monday, shifting more N/NW across the Surf Coast into the afternoon, with Tuesday seeing fresh N-NNW tending weaker NW-W/NW winds.

Strong NW tending W/NW then W/SW winds are due Wednesday as the swell kicks with Thursday seeing strong N/NW-NW tending W/NW winds as it eases.

Both Friday and Saturday also look clean as the energy continues to ease and winds shift more northerly option options further east. More on this Monday, have a great weekend!