Victorian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday April 14th)

Best Days: Beaches to the east tomorrow from mid-late AM, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning to the east, selected spots to the east Friday morning, Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Peaky mix of easing SW and SE swells tomorrow with fresh but easing E/NE tending NE winds, light E/NE into the PM
• Moderate sized S/SW groundswell for Wed AM, easing, with a smaller secondary pulse for Thu
• Light N/NE winds (possibly N'ly in spots to the west) Wed AM ahead of SE sea breezes
• Light E/NE tending SE winds Thu
• Inconsistent mix of W/SW swells Fri with N/NE-NE tending SE winds
• Inconsistent W/SW swell for Sat AM, easing with light N winds ahead of a S change
• S winds likely Sun

Recap

Our strong swell for the weekend filled in on cue Saturday with large 6-8ft sets to the east and 4-5ft+ waves on the Surf Coast with great conditions east of Melbourne and workable winds to the west.

Yesterday was the pick on the Surf Coast though with clean, easing surf from the 4ft range across the Surf Coast as selected spots to the east continued to pump with more size.

A trough brought a shallow change later which strengthened into the afternoon with today coming in average thanks to lingering, moderate to fresh S/SE winds.

This week and weekend (Apr 15 - 20)

The coming week looks more favourable for the beaches compared to the Surf Coast reefs with winds generally having a north-east tendency, though size wise it will be tricky and on the upper end of what the exposed breaks to the east can handle.

Looking at tomorrow and we’ve got an inconsistent SW groundswell in the water today, with this expected to ease into tomorrow morning, mixed in with some local SE windswell.

This will be thanks to today’s trough sliding east, squeezed by high pressure sliding in and under the state, generating strong E’ly winds through Bass Strait overnight before easing and tending E/NE-NE through tomorrow morning.

A peaky mix of swells to 2-3ft are due on the Surf Coast with easing surf from the 3-4ft range to the east, and conditions will remain good all day on the beaches as winds only tend light E/NE after lunch.

Our new pulse of S/SW groundswell that was possibly due later in the day now looks to arrive after dark, with a peak in size due Wednesday morning.

The source is a great but slightly poorly aimed fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds that projected towards the polar shelf through yesterday, with a secondary fetch of even less favourably aligned NW severe-gales set to follow today.

From the initial fetch we should see Wednesday morning coming in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast reefs and 4-6ft to the east during the morning along with a light N/NE breeze (possibly N’ly at times on the Surf Coast) ahead of SE sea breezes.

This swell is due to ease into the afternoon, with the secondary slightly smaller pulse due Thursday, maintaining 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ waves to the east. Winds look to be more E/NE on Thursday morning ahead of SE sea breezes, so less favourable for the Surf Coast.

Into the end of the week, our inconsistent W/SW swell is still on track, with the strong polar frontal system linked to it currently forming around the Heard Island region.

A tight but strong fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds will project towards Western Australia today, breaking down into this evening, resulting in an inconsistent W/SW swell that looks to come in at an inconsistent 3ft on the Surf Coast Friday (odd bigger one magnets) and 5-6ft to the east under a N/NE-NE breeze, shifting SW later as a trough moves through.

The surf should hold the 3ft range into Saturday morning on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east thanks to a small reinforcing W/SW swell arriving overnight Friday, produced by a small burst of W/NW gales moving in behind the progression linked to Friday’s swell.

Local winds look light and locally offshore before a trough brings S’ly winds at some time after lunch.

Now, behind this trough a strong high pressure system will start edging in from the west, bringing freshening S’ly winds through Sunday with winds swinging more easterly into early next week.

It’s worth keeping in mind that the models are still struggling with the wind and surf outlook from Friday into the weekend thanks to the low in the Tasman Sea and local troughiness around the coast, so check back here on Wednesday for a clearer idea on what’s in store from the weekend onwards.