Very complex forecast period
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 31st)
Best Days: Tomorrow morning Surf Coast, Saturday, Sunday morning
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Moderate sized mix of groundswell and mid-period SW-S/SW swell this afternoon, easing tomorrow with W/NW winds, shifting SW late AM and strengthening into the PM
- Large building mix of swells Fri PM with fresh-strong SW winds, strengthening
- Large, easing S/SW groundswell Sat with N winds to the east, N/NW to the west, tending E ahead of a late S change
- Mod-large W/SW-SW groundswell for Sun, peaking through the day with fresh N/NE tending NW winds ahead of a strong S/SW change into the PM
- Easing swell Mon with S/SW winds
Recap
Onshore winds created bumpy conditions through yesterday though they weren't overly strong in the morning, creating fun options on the Surf Coast with a new pulse of mid-period W/SW swell. Consistent 3ft waves were seen on the magnets, with bigger, bumpy waves to the east.
This morning we've got weak onshore winds and lumpy surf again on the Surf Coast, down a little on yesterday though a new pulse of SW swell is due into the afternoon but with strengthening S/SW winds. More on this below.
This week and next (Feb 1 - 9)
This morning's drop in swell is only temporary, with a strengthening low directly south-west of us yesterday due to provide a fresh pulse of swell for this afternoon, easing through tomorrow.
A mix of groundswell and mid-period energy is expected, generated by a fetch of strengthening gale to severe-gale W/SW winds at the core of the deepening frontal system. Satellite observations even picked up some storm-force barbs late in our swell window and this will result in a moderate sized kick in energy.
The Surf Coast should pulse to 4ft this afternoon, 6ft on the sets to the ease, before easing from 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively tomorrow morning.
Winds will be poor and strengthening from the S/SW this afternoon with tomorrow morning being the pick under a moderate W/NW breeze, shifting SW later morning and strengthening into the afternoon.
Early Friday morning will be smaller, and conditions now look dicey with fresh to strong SW winds due from dawn, strengthening from the SW into the afternoon as the next, swell generating system moves through.
There's a slim chance of lighter W/SW winds at dawn on the Surf Coast but it'll be raw and a mix of swells energies.
This secondary strengthening frontal system and a third low firing up behind it are being influenced by a strong upper level jet sitting just south of Western Australia.
Any storm moving into this area is being supercharged and we'll see this later this continuing this week and weekend.
Looking at Friday's system, and this will develop to the south of the Bight today, with a strengthening fetch of W'ly gales due to then be projected north-east, across Tasmania tomorrow and Friday, through our southern swell window.
A large S/SW groundswell will result, with mid-period energy building ahead of it Friday morning and early afternoon, with the groundswell arriving late, peaking overnight and easing Saturday.
Building surf to 6ft is due on the Surf Coast Friday afternoon, 8ft to the east, with lager surf due overnight, easing Saturday from 6ft+ on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east.
The swell generating front will move off quickly to the west Saturday and this will see winds swing back to the N'th east of Melbourne in the morning, N/NW to the west, with winds shifting E through the day ahead of a late, shallow S'ly change.
There'll be little to no downtime between swells heading into Sunday, with the next strong pulse of W/SW groundswell due to arrive shortly after dawn.
This will be generated by a 'bombing low' with the catalyst for it being the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek in the Indian Ocean being absorbed into the westerly storm track, and then deepening significantly with the help of the upper jet.
The low will be quite tight but generate storm-force W'ly winds while tracking east-southeast, slowing once approaching Tasmania and then passing under their state on Sunday.
The size from this swell looks to be moderate-large and peaking to 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east, though there's a little room for movement depending on how deep the low gets.
Winds at this stage look to be fresh from the N/NE in the morning, tending NW ahead of a strengthening S/SW change into the afternoon, with lingering S/SW winds into Monday.
This looks to be the start of a run of generally average winds and conditions through next week but we've got lot to digest ahead of that. See you Friday.
Comments
Hi Craig / others.
Looks like Saturday should be great on Surf Coast! However a bit heavy for me, would anyone be able suggest any spots on the Surf Coast that might be slightly softer options closer to 4ft?
Although it looks like everywhere will be good! Just keen to stay out of everyone's way. Thank you
The 3-4 foot options will be the most crowded of all.
heats up popcorn...
Johnno’s should be firing.
Funnily enough, it’s looking good for Johnnies over here.
Shhh
Was tempted to suggest it, but 6ft might be washing it through and not the soft experience desired.
Oi, Pop!
One for you bruh!
Wrong coast.
It'll be beautiful at Urbnsurf in ya boardies in the sun, just go there. 14 waves an hour all to yourself.
Hah! Thanks for the insight.
Ha! Helpful bunch this lot ay. They like to talk in riddles Little Cove but old Uncle Adam12 doesn't mind helping out the groms when they reach out in good faith, not giving away any secrets here, but Lorne point has some good low tides on the weekend if you can get there, bring your smile and manners tho', you'll have lots of mates to share it with. Other than that, like someone else said, look for the stretches facing more east and go for a drive, lot's of refracting options around.
Before all the pile ons get going, give the guy a break, you were all clueless yourselves once, maybe the odd one still is in other ways, no names, but can probably provide some cryptic clues if the blowback gets going.
"Mahape a ale wala'ua" Duke used to say...'Don't talk keep it in your heart," But that was more about his own greatness.
He also said "Out of the water I am nothing" more applicable here btw.
And if he never spread his Aloha across the globe maybe all those spots you rightfully guard might not ever have been yours to begin with, so I'm just spreading some to Lil'buddy Lil' cove who politely asked. If you are pissed about me exposing Lorne Point, deal with it.
Mahalo bitches.
Ha, nice Adam!
You're the only one here condoning giving away spots.
I'm never one for giving away spots, but sheez, Lorne Point.. cummon.
Oh JB you old weary sea dog..
Why bother with Lorne? It's hours from anywhere and crowded. Learner or not, you're better off booking a flight to the Goldie and getting amongst warm water perfection. You'd pretty much get there quicker and for the same cost in petrol.
This is extremely appreciated adam12.
You're right, I'm whatever the coolest people want to call a guy who started a few years ago aged 30 as a great help to some clinical personal struggles. I have stuck with it in all conditions at all times of year and through plenty of zero-wave coast trips and some injuries. I feel like I've respected the penance that seems to be required by many of the same coolest/manliest dudes. I'm also just trying to have fun and learn, while importantly getting out of the way while I do it.
While I can't see myself posting a comment again, your response has been refreshing and more importantly - bloody helpful. Thanks for restoring faith, will follow all of your wise words.
Ha, exposing Lorne point, sure.
There are many softer options along the Surf Coast 2020. All will be crowded with this sort of forecast on a weekend. Point Impossible, Torquay Pt, Pt Roadnight, Urquart Bluff and Lorne Pt (as mentioned already) to mention a few. There are lots of spots in between as well. All of these spots I listed are very well known. There are less crowded spots, you just have to look. It is both a blessing and a curse that 90% of the breaks can be checked from carparks on the SC, most you don't even have to get out of your car.
Agree W/man, tho' outers and the Point @ Torquay can still pack a punch on these big ones, and as a balance to my post above, reckon the maxing swells and periods with the low tides forecast can tend to overpower that Outside reef and close it out a bit, and Insides can start moving a lot of water with the tide up, but plenty to choose from all along when it gets sizey. Went round to "cowards corner"/Impossos myself for the early last Sunday and couldn't believe the number of cars already there, half way down dirt road and carparks full just on first light. Wasn't even that good, bit weak, inconsistent and windswelly. Was gonna flag it altogether but the car park God smiled on me and then, opposite to usual, Huey smiled and put me in the slot for the two best waves that came thru the whole session. You know when that happens because they all go "Jeez, you got a / another good one" as you paddle back out. Hope my luck sticks over the coming days.
There's a very large amount of van-lyfers out that way at the moment, probably explains the car park situation
I ruptured two tendons in my shoulder at outers on a mid tide on a big day.
Copped one on the head and held onto my board while duckdiving (as I should have) and .... yoink.
So yep outers can pack a punch.
Oof, I just felt that yoink!
Much appreciated, echo my comments to adam12 above, thanks for the help and info.
Woolamai beach will be perfect for learners Saturday.
Ha, ha yes perfect get to learn about rips real quick, even better try Rippamatta for a bit of exercise, opps given away secret spot.
Michael Peterson's famous quote was "I could say, but I won't say."
We are running our Disabled Surfers Association event at Ocean Grove on Sunday morning. Yewww, can't wait :)
Hey Jezza , Surfed @ OG with my daughter this week and it was terrible conditions ( 1ft on shore crap ) .
We had the BEST time ( to the right of the Flags ) at this beautiful beach . We both Popped Up with excitement .
Bought my daughter a wet suit at Ian Disciscio's surf shop in OG ( his staff love him ( so I asked for the spelling of his name ) .
Guessing U2 local legends , know each other .
Love what U are doing .
I was @ The G and saw THE mark .
The crowd lifted , as Jezza lifted ( like slow motion ) onto the shoulders of a mountain .
Then , he pushed even higher ( in a GF , ffs :) .
Awesome lads, cheers.
Jokes aside mate, check the swell direction, then find somewhere that's protected a bit from that swell direction. For example Johanna beach is a mega swell magnet and faces SW. Whereas somewhere like Lorne point needs a solid swell to get going cos it faces north east.
Obviously things like bathymetry play a big role but its a good start.
Yep a bit of Google mapping, and then trial and error driving the coast. Watch for 5-10 minutes to scope for any random big cleanups. Also make sure your leggy is in good nick.
Thank you adsi and Craig, much appreciated.
Sunday is forecast by BOM at 38 in Melbourne and 36 on the coast - potentially hottest day of the summer & hottest day in last year
Finally a hint of the El Nino heat and surf the summer promised!
Dropped a few degrees. First Jan since 84 that Melbourne hasn’t reached 35.
Temps next week suggesting the SAM is staying positive.
No wonder my tomatoes aren’t fruiting!
Ours are about half ripe, half still green. It's crazy isn't it, but global warming makes for a cooler coast.
Stop the SAMs!
When predicting how much of the fetch comes in to the coast how do you do it, I think this deserves an article but a brief response would be nice. When looking at the satellite pass most the barbs are travelling east to west rather than up towards vic but how do you interpolate size from this and does the swell only come from what’s between the the black lines or can it come at much of an angle off the main fetch. From experience I know it does but more specifically how do you work out the radial spread excluding the affects of the great circle paths and bathymetry. Also I’m not talking about how much to shave off into particular spots just the whole coast in general.
Dbut that'd take quite a bit of explaining, maybe for a future article.
But those black lines go wider then you have. Can rotate on each access you have there east and west of Melbourne.
And also with the radial spread, yes can arrive in the swell window when not even aimed, just to a less size and consistency.
“Lager surf due overnight Friday” - too right!
With respect to Craig and Ben and this site... how much spoon feeding can be given?
How about some hoax forecasts to get rid of the minimal, Longboard clowns that know nothing.
Too many cameras.. too much info .. it's ruining it for those who've earnt their knowledge.
Cameras don't create crowds....people creat crowds. And there's certainly plenty of people either living or Torquay, or a stones throw away from it....or happy to drive from Melbourne.
There's plenty of options to continue to earn your surfs around Oz, but you're not going to find them on the surf coast.
"Cameras don't create crowds...."
Sure they don't.
Possos Hiccups...possos.
Packed and camless.
This thread is so helpful , thanks everyone !
.
With the information above , I now KNOW the West Coast , as well as I know , the East Coast .
Caring and sharing , very nice imho , not Goofy at all .
Lets get a Thread for Phillip Island going as know f all about it , perhaps ?
As a Longboarder that knew , next2 , nothing about the West Coast , this has put me onto the right spots and tides , especially helpful , as none of the spots are sand dependent , like the East Coast .
Keep up the good work , SN .
FYI West Coast Wax Up Vintage mal comp is on all day Saturday at Pt. Impossible. Club comp all day the following Saturday too. Van lifers might want to relocate their illegal fires (on the wooden changing platforms for christ sake!), littering (even though there are bins) and shitting in the bushes (even though there is a toilet) to another spot for a couple of weeks.
Gonna be interesting to see if the hoards will respect the restricted access from the comp
Whilst we can argue about comps taking over spots (especially on pumping days), you'd have to be a fair dick to ignore the comps request to steer clear of them for their scheduled comp. Plenty of other spots to hit along the coast.
That said, based on the current description above of the fuckwits camping out there and creating all sorts of mess, nothing would surprise me anymore.
The Local Competitions deserve the SAME rights , and CAN take over any spot , like the Professional comps , on ANY Coast , anytime ( especially IF Swell is pumping on the Day , good luck to them ) , except Bells and Wink nod nod , in Easter , imho .
Our Life Savers have Set the Precedent for this , a gazillion years ago .
If the Locals put Up Flags , everyone has to take notice , and give them respect .
Our Life Savers can and do , Patrol , between the Flags .
Whistles , loud speakers and even water craft , making sure , Stupid or ill-informed people , swim between their Flags .
The Local Surfing Comps can , and should , use the same methods 2 keep the stupid people , outside of their Flags , surely !
Surely , this is not debatable ?
IF there are some real F... Wits in the wrong spot , a few nice blokes can paddle out and , nicely tell them they won't get any waves where they are surfing .
They will leave , not get any waves and not disturb the comp at all .
Mick Pearce would be good at doing the paddling out and chatting , 4 sure .
If I am in the area , I might watch the comp at PI ( if I can find it :) .
The surfing will be great , 4 sure .
are you ment to boil rice for 12 or 14 mins i always forget....
nah. just till its al dente
you blokes are bloody kooks
There hasn't been any secret spots in Vicco since Richard Loveridge exposed them all in the Early 80s in his book guide to every break in Vicco from Green Cape to Nelson and most of us knew about them anyway. (He was a rover for Hawthorn all you West Coast Geelong supporters.
These days its all about timing.
Early Hightide everyone down early maybe a second one around lunch time and then everybody is off home to beat the traffic.
Play the waiting game or do a Ben Gravy and surf novelty spots with your kids/grandkids.
Big swells are over rated in Vicco (Unless your one of the 5% who can really handle them) give me a NE beach break day any time.
Rocky
Richard was much better at playing football , than surfing , and we all loved the book .
Still have a copy of Mark Warren's Atlas book, to remind me where everything is , and where I have surfed .
Very helpful , reminder , cheers !
We didn't all love it Pops , An alternative book - "Picnic spots of Inner Melbourne " with Loveridge's address and clear directions to his back yard was suggested ,but what do you know he's a lawyer and I'm sure this title would have been banned before it hit the shops .
Lawyers don't surf!! This one does Utah, - from Iron Prince, Gabo Island, to Whites Beach, Portland.
adam12. Random, but were you in chacahua in 2011?
Seems the West Coast people , think Lorne Point , is ok 2 mention .
I mentioned Cape Shank ,and some East Coat boys , threw their hands up in horror .
It is pretty easy to drive to Lorne .
Very few surfers can walk up and down the Cliff at The Shank .
Unless a Gondola has been built there , I may surf it again , by boat .
Both Lorne Point and Cape Shank are known by boat people, as they are really big .
Just saying .
Long way by boat to surf Cape Shank. Why would you surf Lorne Point by boat? Or do you mean a row boat from the beach? Just saying.
@NickBone
"adam12. Random, but were you in chacahua in 2011?"
Only in spirit NB.
If I was I'd still be there now probably, those Oaxaca right hand points would be having my name all over them, and some.
Go back a few decades from that and I'm sure some of the produce that passes thru that way would have been up my nostrils in bulk quantities for sure. So I've never been to Chacahua, but Chacahua's probably been to me, but a long, long time ago.
In 2011 I was just on the other side of the Rip from you, but the boat trips across to that legend of a bank tucked in under that tip was as close as I got to that coast. Was also decking on a charter in that water over summers back then.
Hope that q was serious NB, you Peninsular-ra-ra boys get me a bit confused with your cryptisism sometimes, but I like that!
“ So I've never been to Chacahua, but Chacahua's probably been to me, but a long, long time ago.”
Ha! This was very funny Adam.
Hope you kept it away from Pop.
That man can talk, just picturing standing around a kitchen bench with him at 4:59 am with frosted nostrils makes my ears hurt…
Jokes, pop. I do actually think you’re a funny fella
Nothing to add about the f/cast- just very much enjoying the Vicco banter on here.