Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday December 27th)

Best Days: Early Saturday Surf Coast, Monday morning selected locations and possibly Tuesday/Wednesday mornings

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Gusty SW winds tomorrow, strengthening through the day
• Moderate sized, easing SW swell tomorrow
• Moderate S/SW winds Fri AM with smaller surf
• Early W/NW winds Sat, tending strong S/SW during the day
• Fun mid-period SW swell Sat AM, with a larger, building SW swell through the day, peaking Sun PM with moderate S/SE winds
• Easing swell Mon with E/NE tending S/SE winds
• Moderate sized S/SW swell for Tue PM, easing Wed with possible variable winds each morning

Recap

The coast was terrible and stormy with strong onshore winds yesterday and plenty of size, while this morning we’ve got a reprieve in the onshore blow and cleaner options across all spots. It’s all over the place on the Surf Coast though and better to the east for the keen. Make the most of it as winds will shift more S and then S/SW through the day.

This week and weekend (Dec 28 - 31)

Looking at the end of the week, and this afternoon’s shift in winds back to the S/SW will be ahead of a weak, approaching front that will clip the state tomorrow, bringing gusty SW winds, strengthening through the day.

Winds will back off into Friday but remain moderate from the S/SW, creating average conditions. Swell wise, a good pulse of mid-period S/SW energy is due this afternoon, easing back through tomorrow and then smaller Friday.

We’ve got a window of W/NW winds on Saturday morning before shifting strong SW-S/SW through the day as a stronger polar front pushes up and into us.

Swell wise, some fun mid-period energy should be in the mix Saturday morning to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, larger to the east, generated by weak but sustained polar frontal activity this week south of the country.

Of greater importance is the following polar frontal progression, with a great fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds due to project from the south-southwest of Western Australia, up towards Tasmania over the coming days.

This should generate a moderate sized + mid-period S/SW swell for Sunday, building through the day to a peak into the afternoon.

The Surf Coast looks to reach 4-5ft+ during the afternoon with 6-8ft sets to the east but with S-S/SE winds.

Monday now looks cleaner as the swell eases with an E/NE offshore but solid, easing sets from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east. A little overpowering to be ideal.

Tuesday is a little tricky with a trough due to bring another S/SE change but we may see a period of variable winds early to the east. We’ll review this Friday.

A reinforcing S/SW swell is due Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, though below the size of Sunday’s and winds are still up in the air. Ats for Tuesday, there’s a chance for variable winds Wednesday morning but we’ll review this on Friday.