Large, strong swell for the weekend but with deteriorating winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday November 15th)

Best Days: Keen surfers this morning Surf Coast, keen surfers early tomorrow Surf Coast, keen surfers Friday morning Surf Coast, Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized, easing S/SW groundswell tomorrow with strengthening S/SW-SW winds (W/NW early Surf Coast)
  • Small reinforcing mid-period SW swell Fri with lighter S/SW winds
  • Easing swell Sat with variable tending fresh S/SE winds
  • Large, long-period S/SW groundswell filling in Sun with light E/SE winds, strengthening from the S/SE
  • Easing surf Mon with strengthening S/SW winds
  • Easing surf with strong S/SW winds


Yesterday was good through the morning with a moderate + sized S/SW swell to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets with offshore winds, bumpy and larger to the east.

A larger S/SW groundswell arrived into the afternoon but with freshening onshore winds, choppy and best in protected spots.

This morning the swell is on the ease but still large with a workable onshore wind on the Surf Coast, bumpy to the east.

This week and weekend (Nov 16 - 23)

The current swell has peaked and is expected to back off slowly over the coming days, with the drawn out fetch of gales slowing the drop in size through tomorrow and Friday.

Tomorrow looks to still be 4ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east, while a weak front passing under Tasmania today will generate a small, reinforcing mid-period SW swell for Friday to 3ft+ to the west.

Winds are the main issue with persistent S/SW-SW breezes due both tomorrow and Friday, fresh tomorrow and lighter Friday. There’s a window of light W/NW winds due around the Surf Coast tomorrow morning but it will be very short-lived, less so on Friday morning.

Moving into the weekend, we should see more variable winds developing into Saturday morning with a drop in swell from Friday, giving into fresh afternoon S/SE sea breezes.

Our large, long-period S/SW groundswell for Sunday is on track, with a significant polar low due to form south-southwest of the country today. The big question is, will it be a bombing system, dropping the 24hPa threshold in 24 hours? The answer is yes, with EC coming on board and forecasting a drop of around 32hPa within 24 hours.

This will result in a fetch of storm-force W/SW winds firing up under the country tomorrow, pushing slowly east and then under Tasmania Saturday morning.

The swell from this system looks to be stronger and bigger than the current swell, arriving Sunday morning and pulsing to a large 8ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 10ft+ to the east but with that light E/SE breeze. Afternoon winds will strengthen from the S/SE and Monday looks dicey as winds shift S/SW and remain fresh, strengthening into the afternoon again.

This will spoil the entire swell, with next week remaining poor as winds shift from S/SW on Tuesday to the SE on Wednesday and with strength. More on this Friday.


Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Wednesday, 15 Nov 2023 at 2:25pm

Lots of S with the word Wind in the same sentence.
The car parks on the North side of the Island must be full 24/7.

shetrickedme3's picture
shetrickedme3's picture
shetrickedme3 Wednesday, 15 Nov 2023 at 4:02pm

Whispers of the Bluff going off this weekend. Lucky señor surely hitting up the best wave this side of pipeline

RockyIsland's picture
RockyIsland's picture
RockyIsland Thursday, 16 Nov 2023 at 8:22am

Plenty of Novelty breaks will light up under this swell MR T seek and you will find.
Go East Young man.

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Thursday, 16 Nov 2023 at 8:08pm

Possibly so but the Shite Southerly winds will make the novelty breaks that you have alluded to very sloppy and choppy.