A secondary fetch developing west from Cook Strait around this time will bolster a SE fetch in the southern Tasman Sea, offering moderate SE swells through the middle of the week ahead of another pulse of slightly bigger E/SE swell through Thursday afternoon and Friday.
The source of this new swell is a powerful low pressure system currently in the Southern Indian Ocean.
A powerful low pressure system currently in the Southern Indian Ocean is generating a large, long period groundswell that’ll push our way for the weekend.
While all of this is going on, a much more significant system will have been tracking eastwards through the Southern Indian Ocean, generating a large groundswell that’s due to arrive Thursday.
Monday will see a peak in short range southerly storm swell, with strong to gale force winds accompanying form the same direction.
The synoptic chart looks very impressive with a deep low immediately to our south, and Cape Sorell buoy showing a lot of energy - however the main fetch around the western flank of the low is outside our swell window, aimed up into SA and western Vic.
A longer, broader and more favourably positioned S/SE fetch will develop east of Tasmania on Monday and this will be a better source of quality groundswell through Tuesday and Wednesday.
For my money, you’re best off flagging the start of the week and aiming for Wednesday through Friday.
Unfortunately, all of this swell will largely go to waste at Victor thanks to accompanying southerly gales.
No surprises for the weekend, with a significant cold outbreak impacting the entire state.
