Easing swells through Wednesday and Thursday will precede an increase around Friday, thanks to a new NE swell generated by a broad infeed into the Tasman trough.
This week’s synoptic pattern is essentially a regional block, whereby there’s very little movement in the local weather systems from day to day and therefore no major change in local winds and weather either.
The models are showing a small long period S’ly swell across Southern NSW on Tuesday and Wednesday, around half a metre at about 14-15 seconds. More in the Forecaster Notes.
We’re under the influence of a synoptic blocking pattern in the form of a stationary belt of high pressure across the Southern Ocean, stretching from underneath Western Australia through South Australia to a position below Tasmania.
So, Friday's models were pretty good with their outlook for a week or more of E’ly winds: they’re still holding this pattern through into the end of this week. The block is expected to break down this weekend though, and the outlook beyond that is pretty dynamic.
This week’s synoptics will be dominated by a large stationary high pressure system west from Perth, which will generally maintain fresh S/SE winds all week.
The weekend’s not looking at delivering anything amazing in the surf department.
As a side note, if you are in the water and you hear thunder, don’t hang around - lightning can travel tens of kilometres from the source region and the water is a pretty dangerous place to be at these times.
A coastal trough will linger about the region on Saturday, just north of Sydney, before moving south into Sunday, possibly forming a small low off the South Coast.
We’re on the cusp of an extended period of E’ly winds, thanks to a blocking pattern setting up camp across our immediate swell window.
