The low will approach Tasmania over the weekend with a strong E’ly infeed expected to generate large surf. Models now show much less size as the fetch is not directly aimed at Tasmania and not as powerful as Wed’s notes indicated. We’re still looking at solid surf through from Sun into next week!

While this is happening a long trough line in the near South Pacific forms and deepens with a wind speeds increasing along a broad front due south of New Caledonia as they feed into the trough. Strong winds to gales feeding into the fetch through Tues-Thurs are expected to generate quality E/NE swell trains for the region.

We still have the same building blocks in place for next week but the timing has been pushed back and the mix has been altered as E swell dominates from the “trough block” and S swell fades in importance.

There’s still some model divergence on the position of the low on Sun, and a fetch of strong winds on the southern flank of the low.  Either way we’ll see large storm surf from the SE to ESE develop, in conjunction with building NE swell.