Fantastic period for Vicco surfers

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 13th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Similar conditions as today persisting Thurs, easing Fri, generally light variable winds (E'ly if anything)
  • Smaller and very windy weekend ahead, give it a miss
  • Building windy swell Mon (protected spots only)
  • Very large surf Tues with winds swinging NW
  • Easing Wed onwards with good conditions

Recap

Small clean 1-2ft leftovers west of Melbourne and 2-3ft east of Melbourne on Tuesday. Leading edge of a new long period swell reached the Pt Nepean buoy around midnight and has slowly built in size across the coast; Surf Coast increased from an early 2ft to 3-5ft by lunchtime, whilst the East Coast has seen 4-5ft sets to push a solid 6ft+ or more through the day. Conditions have been nice and clean for the last 48 hours with light variable winds. 

This week (May 12 - 13)

No major changes to the forecast for the rest of the week. 

A slack pressure gradient should maintain generally light variable winds, tending easterly if anything but without any real strength. 

The current swell event is expected plateau in size into Thursday before easing slowly through Friday. This pattern is a little different from a single-source swell events that rise quickly, peak and then steadily ease; we have secondary swells due to fill in over the coming 24 hours from follow-up fronts trailing the primary low pressure system.

What this means is that there may be periods where the swell appears to be showing signs of easing, however it’s likely to be temporary. So if Thursday morning is undersized, keep an eye out for a boost over the following hours. 

Therefore, expect size to fluctuate in and around the 6ft+ mark east of Melbourne (give or take) with 3-5ft surf along the Surf Coast (upper end of this size range at the reef break swell magnets). And it’ll remain very inconsistent at times with long flat spells between sets. Patience!

A gradual easing is then expected through Friday though the early session should still see some solid leftover sets. 

This weekend (May 14 - 15)

The weekend still looks pretty average, thanks to freshening winds that will slowly clock around from the N/NW to the NW then W/NW. 

This will maintain clean conditions across the Surf Coast however we’ll see a steadily easing size trend through this time, from perhaps some early inconsistent 2-3ft sets Saturday to 1-2ft by lunchtime. 

A small new swell is expected later Saturday and into Sunday but it’ll be quite westerly in direction so probably won’t contribute much more size to the Surf Coast, which is the only region that’ll enjoy the gusty NW tending W/NW wind direction. 

East of Melbourne will see even more size, but options will be greatly limited under this wind regime. So keep your expectations low. 

Next week (May 16 onwards)

The outlook for early next week has improved a lot, thanks to a subtle shift in the timing of the main frontal passage. It won’t affect the swell potential a great deal - we’re still looking at a very sizeable event - though it will push the peak back to Tuesday, by which time we should see local winds swing back to the NW. 

Monday’s still looking to be pretty blustery as the front approaches and then crosses the region. We’ll see strengthening W/NW tending W’ly winds and building W/SW swells into the 4-5ft range in Torquay by late afternoon (much smaller early morning) with bigger but very wind affected waves east of Melbourne.

Tuesday’s peak will be source from the parent polar low, well to the south of the continent on Saturday and Sunday. It’ll slingshot right through the ideal Victorian swell window (see below) and should provide a peak in size around 6-8ft across the Surf Coast, and 8-10ft east of Melbourne.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see the odd bigger set too (i.e. rogue 8-10ft+ sets at Surf Coast swell magnets); it’s a really impressively aligned frontal passage, at strength. Regardless, this won't be a swell for inexperience: there'll be a lot of water moving around and so most surfers will be best off inside sheltered corners, bays, coves and points.

This peak will be accompanied by moderate to fresh NW winds that will favour excellent waves west of Melbourne, and a secondary front flaring up just to our south-west around the same time should somewhat arrest the easing trend into Wednesday; i.e. maintaining another day of solid though gradually abating surf with winds holding from the NW. 

A more defined easing trend will probably then occupy the end of next week and part of the following weekend, but there’s a stack of impressive fronts lining up behind this that are looking like renewing strong surf for Victoria through the following week. 


More on this in Friday’s update. 

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 6:06pm

Wow. I thought West Coasters would be raining praise. Crickets

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 6:27pm

Fear can be silencing sometimes Bone.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 6:50pm

Every 1 x frothing comment on Swellnet forecast = another 10 x surfers at Bells/winki.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 7:53pm

nah, not when its that size. Ive found it relatively uncrowded once it gets to a certain size

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 8:12pm

Happy to pop my hand up and say I probably won’t paddle out at 8-10ft Winki… can’t wait to watch though after a paddle somewhere slightly more protected

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 6:20pm

Give us a chance boner, just climbed out of the wetty.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 7:00pm

Nothing to see over here with this kind of forecast...move along.

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 7:14pm

Absolutely shit report for all locations

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 7:21pm

Slingshot means only one thing - overwhelming everywhere for underwhelming conditions everywhere. Not even worth it. Mow the lawns or ready a book, do some gardening, renovate the house. There are so many things that are going to be so much more worthy of your time over the coming week

Gowest's picture
Gowest's picture
Gowest Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 9:23pm

Hi Ben, Why do the notes predict a big swell fot Tuesday in the 6-8ft range yet the forecast bar graph say 4-5ft?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 1:22pm

Graph forecasts are automatically generated by a computer. Forecast notes are written by a qualified surf meteorologist (in this case, me).

So, it's man vs computer, in a stunning duel that ultimately no-one really gives a shit about, as long as they get good waves.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 2:27pm

Haha, I liked that. Nice to know a trained human can still understand the nuances better :)

For some reason I'm picturing Bear Grylls ripping a deer apart on 'Man vs Wild', but it's Ben and a PC...

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 5:54pm

https://c.tenor.com/xfmQKwxXdzcAAAAC/homer-simpson-yes-yes.gif

love ya work Ben

and of course, Dark Lord of the South, Craigoss, First of his name...

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 10:28pm

If can get my car working by Monday then I will paddle out at my usual " protected spot" next week. You Bet I will ! :-)

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 2:29pm

Mr T what has gone wrong with your car?

Can you beg/borrow a relatives/friend's car?

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Friday, 13 May 2022 at 9:40am

Velocity: My car shoud be fixed and ready by closing time today at the mechanics' workshop. I blew a transfer case on the AWD coming back from W.P. two weeks ago.It had to be towed!. It would seem possible that I will be able to drive to
surf at W.P. on Monday and Tuesday coming up. If that is the case then the one above is great indeed. Huey will deliver us some proper swell and winds too.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 2:45pm

New drinking game ...

1. Watch the Winki Cam
2. Drink one shot for a drop in
3. Drink two shots for a snake.

Prediction - Regardless of your tolerance. You will be off your face within the hour.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 3:05pm

You'd almost need an algorithmic program to calculate the snakes!

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 3:23pm

Thats the fun of it ...

Just saw one before ...

First Old Mate paddles out to meet a wave.
Second Old mate already inside (has the wave and paddles)
First Old mate sees second old mate catch the wave but paddles behind him
Second old mate bottom turns and turns around and sees the First Old mate on the wave and kicks out.

Not sure if that reads well but perhaps thats the algorithm at work

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 4:28pm

Have to say the cam angle doesn't tell the full story for drop ins. 80% of the time people are just too deep, kind of hard to see from the cam.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 5:58pm

Had some nice surf's of late conditions are just pristine, proper swells again and no wind conditions, biggest problem is timing tides around work.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 12 May 2022 at 6:44pm


Mmmm, tasty

groundswell's picture
groundswell's picture
groundswell Friday, 13 May 2022 at 1:02am

are these the sort of lows and swells that are good for shippies Ben?