Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd September)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow and Friday protected spots, Monday through Wednesday on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mod-large SW groundswell building tomorrow, easing Fri with strong NW winds tomorrow, easing into the PM, and strengthening NW tending W/NW winds Fri
• Late increase in mid-period W/SW swell Fri ahead of a larger SW groundswell Sat AM, easing thereafter. Strong W/SW tending SW winds
• Easing SW swell with moderate S/SE winds Sun
• Easing SW swell Mon with N/NE tending fresh S/SE winds
• Small, mid-period SW swell building Tue with mid-fresh NE tending E/NE winds

Recap

Large surf across all locations yesterday morning with a mix of W/SW groundswell and mid-period W/SW swell to 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east. Conditions were average to poor though with a gusty W/SW-SW breeze, easing a little into the afternoon along with the swell.

This morning we've got a smaller mix of mid-period swells to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east with lighter W/NW winds and cleaner, lumpy conditions. Winds will hold from the W/NW all day day, continuing to smooth out the lump across the Surf Coast.

This week and next (Sep 23 – Oct 1)

We've got cleaner, stronger and much better surf on the way to end off the week, following the windy, sizey surf seen through early this week.

The source of the swells, the first building tomorrow (peaking into the afternoon) is a vigorous polar frontal progression that's swung in from the south-east Indian Ocean.

A initial fetch of gale-force NW winds was followed by severe-gale W/NW winds, moving east-southeast and then east through our south-western swell window. While not ideally aimed in our swell window, the stronger frontal system moving in on top of the active sea state generated ahead of it will produce a significant open ocean swell, with good amounts of energy spreading radially up and into us tomorrow.

The Surf Coast should build from 3ft to possibly 4ft tomorrow morning to a strong 4-5ft into the afternoon, with 6-8ft sets developing on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will be favourable for protected spots all day with a strong NW'ly, easing a touch after lunch.

The swell will ease slowly through Friday from 3-5ft and 6ft to possibly 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds strengthen from the NW tending W/NW.

This strengthening breeze will be ahead of a strong polar low firing up on the tail of the progression tomorrow, projecting up and into us on Friday. We'll see a great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW tending SW winds generated through our south-western swell window, bringing a late increase in mid-period energy on Friday ahead of a large groundswell Saturday morning to the 6ft range on the Surf Coast, 8ft to the east.

Winds won't be too favourable unfortunately with strong W/SW tending SW winds due in the wake of the swell generating storm moving through overnight Friday, and then moderate S/SE winds into Sunday as the swell eases and a high pushes in from the east.

The Surf Coast looks to ease from around 4ft on the sets Sunday morning, 5-6ft to the east.

Next week is looking great on the beaches as the high moves in further from the west, swinging winds around to the N/NE along with a further drop in size from the weekend. The Surf Coast looks small and to 2ft+, with 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, choppy into the afternoon with fresh S/SE sea breezes.

Fresh NE winds will blow into Tuesday as a mid-latitude low forms in the Bight and pushes slowly east, along with a new, small, building mid-period SW swell. This swell won't have any major size, generated by background polar frontal activity on the weekend.

The Surf Coast only looks to offer 2ft sets, with 3ft to possibly 4ft waves through the afternoon as the swell peaks. Winds look to hold most of the day, if not tending E/NE with Wednesday seeing stronger N/NE winds as the low moves closer. We may see a slightly stronger mid-period signal on Wednesday but we'll look at this in more detail Friday.

Longer term it looks like smaller swells with winds from the north-eastern quadrant are due into next weekend and beyond, but more on this Friday.