Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 8th September)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning selected spots, Friday, Saturday morning selected spots

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S/SW swell tomorrow with strong N/NW tending NW winds
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell building Fri, peaking into the PM with light W/NW tending N/NW winds in the AM and then N/NE-NE into the PM
• Easing SW swell Sat with strong N/NW tending W/NW winds
• Small Sun with strong W/NW tending W winds
• Mod-large W/SW groundswell for Mon with mod-fresh S winds, easing Tue with SE-S/SE winds

Recap

Monday's weak windswell eased back into yesterday morning with a slow, mixed start to the day on the Surf Coast with lumpy 2-3ft waves. Some new mid-period swell started to build shortly after though with protected spots staying clean until about midday before a strong SW change moved through.

We saw a mix of new groundswells providing more size into the afternoon (one a long-range swell and the other a close-range number from a significant low firing up immediately south-west of us), large and strong into the evening.

This morning we're seeing much cleaner, large, easingsurf. The Surf Coast was 5-6ft+ at dawn, but is now easing with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under light offshore winds. Winds will remain great all day (holding from the NW) with a steady easing trend.

Great quality this morning

This week and weekend (Sep 9 - 12)

Down, down, down. That's the trend today and into tomorrow morning in the wake of the close-range low that fired up south-west of us on Monday. The close-range nature and then movement in behind Tasmania's shadow will see the swell easing steadily while tending more S/SW in direction through today.

Tomorrow looks to be back to a much smaller 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 4ft+ to the east and with stronger N/NW winds. A shift in wind to the NW is due through the afternoon.

Very late in the day we may see some new signs of mid-period SW swell, but Friday is the best chance for this, with the swell generated by a good frontal system firing up under the country this evening.

A broad and elongated fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds are due to be projected east-northeast through our south-western swell window before passing under Tasmania tomorrow evening.

A moderate sized, mid-period SW swell is expected, with it building Friday and likely peaking through the afternoon. There's been no change to the expected size on the Surf Coast with most locations due to build to 3-4ft with the odd bigger one on the swell magnets, 6ft to the east. Winds are still looking favourable for a wide variety of locations through the day with an early, light W/NW breeze due to swing more N/NW through the morning, then N/NE-NE into the afternoon. This will see locations east of Melbourne improving from late morning and best into the afternoon and evening.

Come Saturday strong N/NW tending W/NW winds will see protected locations fairing best as the swell eases from 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

A low point in swell is due Sunday morning and an approaching cold front will see fresh morning W/NW winds, shifting more W'ly into the afternoon ahead of a S'y change before dawn on Monday.

This will spoil a new, moderate to large W/SW groundswell, generated by a strong polar low moving in from the Heard Island region over the coming days. While a healthy fetch of swell generating winds will be initially produced in our far swell window, we'll see the low strengthen south-southwest of Western Australia on Friday, projecting a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds through our swell window while the storm tracks north-east up into South Australia.

Size wise the swell looks to come in at 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east Monday but with that S'ly wind, easing Tuesday as winds swing more SE. Unfortunately wind will take a while to improve owing to the slow migration of a high in from the west following Monday's change, with Thursday the likely day offshore winds will kick in, but the surf will be small and weak by then. More on this in Friday's update though.