Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 16th June)

Best Days: Today, beaches early tomorrow for the keen, Saturday morning for the keen in selected spots, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing, inconsistent W/SW groundswell tomorrow with light N/NW tending NW winds
• Mod-large, inconsistent W/SW groundswell filling in Fri with strengthening SW tending S/SW winds, S'ly later, easing Sat with moderate S/SE winds
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Sun PM, easing Mon AM with local offshore tending variable winds
• Further drop in size Tue and Wed with favourable N/NE winds

Recap

Small to tiny surf across the Mornington Peninsula and Surf Coast respectively yesterday with clean conditions, while today, the best day of the week, our inconsistent W/SW groundswell isn't doing too well.

The size has come up slightly but only to 1ft to occasionally 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east along with rain. Hit the beaches to the east as they'll remain clean and fun all day, though patience is needed for the sets.

This week and weekend (Jun 17 - 20)

Make the most of today on the beaches as the forecast through the end of the week is poor.

We'll see today's inconsistent W/SW groundswell easing tomorrow and with winds shifting light to moderate NW, there'll be no quality options as the Surf Coast will be tiny. Selected spots east of Melbourne will be workable in the morning for the keen with winds likely N/NW along with easing 2-3ft sets.

We then look at our moderate-large W/SW groundswell due into Friday, generated by a strong polar low that fired up around the Heard Island region, projecting storm-force W/SW winds through our swell window. This low is now weakening south of Western Australia and a front spawning off it will project into the Bight and turn into a mid-latitude low.

This low will then move slowly east on Friday, bringing increasing onshore winds and deteriorating conditions. Early, winds only look light to moderate from the SW, though shifting more S/SW and strengthening through the day, S'ly into the afternoon.

The swell will be on the build, peaking through the afternoon to an inconsistent but strong 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 6-8ft to the east.

Winds will ease but linger from the S/SE on Saturday morning, moderate in strength as the groundswell eases from the 4ft and 6ft+ range respectively on the Surf Coast and Mornington Peninsula.

From Sunday we'll be looking at better conditions as a high moves in from the west, swinging winds around to the north, locally offshore and NE on the Mornington Peninsula, NW to the west, variable into the afternoon.

There'll be a temporary low point in swell early ahead of a fun, new W/SW groundswell arriving mid-late morning and peaking into the afternoon.

This will be generated by a strong polar low forming east of the Heard Island region this afternoon, generating a patchy though strong fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW-W winds.

Size wise the Surf Coast should kick back to 3-4ft on the sets across the swell magnets (3ft or so early) with 6ft sets to the east with those favourable winds.

Persistent gale to severe-gale W/NW-NW winds trailing this low should keep similar sized waves hitting the coast Monday morning under favourable winds again, N/NE to the east and NW to the west before tending variable into the afternoon.

The rest of the week looks void of any major surf with easing swells and favourable winds for the exposed beaches as another mid-latitude low fires up across Western Australia and meanders slowly east.

Unfortunately the longer term outlook remains quiet with a lack of any major Southern Ocean frontal activity until late in the month, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on these developments.