Weak, mixed week, better into next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 31st May)

Best Days: Beaches tomorrow and Wednesday afternoon, Thursday selected spots, Saturday on the Surf Coast, Sunday afternoon through next week on the Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing W'ly groundswell tomorrow with freshening N/NE winds
  • Inconsistent SW groundswell building Wed PM, easing Thu with gusty N/NE winds on the former, N/NW tending W/NW ahead of a late SW change on the latter
  • Mix of swells for Fri with strong SW tending S/SW winds, easing Sat with fresh NW tending N/NW winds
  • New mid-period W/SW swell for Sun PM with fresh NW winds


Average surf Saturday with an easing mid-period swell from Friday with lingering onshore winds, cleaner Sunday morning on the beaches but back to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and better to the east with 2-3ft sets.

A new, infrequent W'ly groundswell built into the afternoon as winds remained favourable, fun this morning with the swell now easing from 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, 2ft on sets across the Surf Coast.

This week and weekend (Jun 1 - 6)

Our current swell will continue to ease into tomorrow and Wednesday morning, coming in tiny across the Surf Coast tomorrow and fading from an inconsistent 2-3ft on the exposed beaches east of Melbourne.

Conditions will be great with a freshening N/NE breeze, holding all day tomorrow, similar Wednesday morning but the surf will be tiny even on the Mornington Peninsula.

A new, inconsistent, mid-period SW swell for the afternoon is on track, generated by a short-lived and not overly strong polar front over the weekend, south-southwest of Western Australia. This front is now weakening while moving east with an inconsistent swell due to build Wednesday afternoon, reaching 2ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets, 3-4ft+ to the east, easing from the same size Thursday morning.

Expect long waits for sets and Wednesday afternoon looks the pick with the N/NE breeze, N/NW tending W/NW ahead of a late, shallow change Thursday. There's an outside chance of early light N winds on the Mornington Peninsula but we'll review this Wednesday.

As touched on the last couple of updates, the outlook is a bit more active into the end of the week and weekend but it'll be from less favourable, east-southeast tracking fronts through our swell window ahead of some better aligned storms next week.

An initial tight polar low firing up in a similar position to the weekend's polar front will generating a small, inconsistent SW groundswell for Friday, but this will be mixed with mid-period W/SW-SW energy from weak, pre-frontal and post-frontal W/NW-W/SW fetches moving under the country late week.

Size wise, the models are mixing the swells and over-forecasting the size, so expect surf to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east. Winds will be poor in any case as a cold front brings a strong SW change just before dawn Friday, shifting S/SW through the day.

This change will add some additional, close-range S/SW swell to the mix on Saturday morning as winds swing back to the NW tending N/NW with another approaching front.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should ease back from the 3ft range, 4-6ft to the east.

Sunday looks to start slow but the approaching cold front will bring pre-frontal W/NW gales and a building W/SW swell through the afternoon, with some better SW swell to follow.

Size wise this looks to be more around 3ft+ on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east as winds hold from the NW, with larger, windier surf likely to develop through the week next week.

Timing wise we're probably looking at 4-6ft waves on the Surf Coast with winds out of the western quadrant, but more on this in the coming updates.


PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks Monday, 31 May 2021 at 12:21pm

so we're not really missing much

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 31 May 2021 at 12:22pm