Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 6th November)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow exposed beaches, early Wednesday desperate surfers on the beaches

Recap

Conditions weren't too flash for Saturday but a good new SW groundswell built into the afternoon providing solid sets with a bit of push for keen surfers, holding Sunday as winds shifted lighter E'ly opening a couple more options.

Today is much better across all locations with lighter winds out of the north to north-east and with a moderate sized swell to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

The swell should hold most of the day (3ft sets Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east) with sea breezes kicking in late this afternoon.

This week and weekend (Nov 10 - 15)

Make the most of today's and tomorrow's waves as we'll see the swell backing off through the coming period and remaining minimal into the medium-long term outlook.

Today's continued size is thanks to persistent polar fetches of westerly winds through our swell window on the back of the strong frontal progression linked to Saturday afternoon's spike in swell.

We'll see the size back away through tomorrow though, dropping back from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 3-4ft to the east in the morning with fresh NE winds, holding most of the day.

Wednesday will see stronger N/NE winds as a strong mid-latitude low in the Bight starts edging in from the west, but size wise the Surf Coast will be tiny and the Mornington Peninsula back to a small, inconsistent 2ft on the sets.

As touched on in Friday's update, the mid-latitude low will be strongest in the Bight, north of our swell window and by the time it drifts south-east and into our swell window later week, it'll have to strength to it at all.

It looks like we'll see no size at all from this low with a very weak fetch of W/SW-SW winds being aimed through our swell window Thursday. This may kick up 1-2ft of W/SW swell Friday afternoon on the Surf Coast (2-3ft to the east), fading Saturday with tiny surf ahead of it on Thursday itself.

Winds will be favourable and offshore from the NW Thursday but the surf tiny to flat, with NW tending SW winds on Friday. Saturday morning will be clean on the Surf Coast again but with no size over 2ft.

Longer term there's nothing significant on the cards at all with the storm track being focussed up and towards Western Australia as an upper level blocking pattern deflects any fronts moving in under the country to the south-east. This doesn't bode well for swell production, but check back here Wednesday for any change to the outlook.