Craig

Not much chance for a decent surf in the short term

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 28th October)

Best Days: Desperate surfers tomorrow AM, Monday morning exposed beaches, late next week

Recap

A continuation of generally poor conditions across the Surf Coast though some beaches offered OK waves for the keen, a bit better to the east with cross-shore conditions and a mix of easing SW and SE swells from 3-4ft.

Today conditions are a touch better across all locations but the SE swell has started to ease with 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and Mornington Peninsula.

This week and next (Oct 29 – Nov 6)

The source of the SE windswell is now breaking down, that being a surface trough off the southern NSW coast, squeezing a strong high to our south. This created strong E/SE winds through Bass Strait and as winds swing around to the E/NE-NE tomorrow morning, the swell source will be gone, resulting in easing levels of small, weak SE windswell.

Dawn will likely be lumpy and peaky, with the cleanest conditions seen on the beaches mid-late morning before sea breezes kick in ahead of a trough and shift to fresher S/SW-S winds.

The Surf Coast looks to ease from a weak 1-2ft with similar sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Therefore it'll only be for the super keen and on a board with plenty of volume.

During the afternoon, a very inconsistent new long-period W/SW groundswell should start to show, but this will be with the sea breezes and change.

There's no change to the expected size, with the swell generated in our far western swell window resulting in small, infrequent 2ft to possibly 3ft sets on the Surf Coast Friday when it peaks, 4-5ft on the sets to the east and smaller in between.

Unfortunately the secondary trough moving in from the west Thursday evening will bring onshore winds out of the SE, freshening through the day. There might be a window of lighter E/SE winds early but keep an eye on the local wind observations.

The weekend looks poor with Friday's swell due to slowly ease along with fresh S/SE tending S'ly winds on Saturday and moderate to fresh S/SE winds through Sunday.

A small mid-period SW swell should slow the easing trend on Sunday, generated by a south-east tracking, weak low, with this swell not topping the size seen Friday.

The swell will fade Monday from 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east as winds finally swing back to the E/NE through the morning, even N/NE late morning. This is likely worth jumping on and the pick of the period.

Tuesday will be clean again but the surf tiny to flat.

We then look towards the increase in activity through the Southern Ocean from this weekend through next week, with a broad node of the Long Wave Trough due to strengthen south-west of WA, pushing east while weakening.

This will cause a strong, broad polar low to develop around the Heard Island region, moving east while generating a fetch of W/SW gales in our medium-range south-western swell window. We'll even likely see core winds reach severe-gale, with the storm weakening while pushing slowly east next week.

An inconsistent, moderate sized SW groundswell is due, with it arriving Thursday, building into the afternoon, then easing slowly Friday. Size wise it looks to come in around 4ft on the sets across the swell magnets on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft+ to the east.

Winds are tricky at this stage but a trough looks to bring onshore S'ly breezes Thursday, possibly swinging back W'ly Friday morning ahead of another trough, but more on this and the swell size Friday.

Comments

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 12:52pm

Geez looks like the pacific ocean out there today those easterlies have really killed it.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 1:22pm

I picked up a new board a week ago. Funnily enough it's been dogshit conditions since then.

Will be well cured by the time we get some decent surf round here by the looks........

Vunerable's picture
Vunerable's picture
Vunerable commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 1:55pm

Long range forecast southerlies ..
Cmon Huey, dings are almost all fixed and I’ve got a week off coming up.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 3:57pm

Grim long range forecast for the SC locals looking to get some final waves in before the Melb crew come to town. Tulla might be full of you lot from the 9th onwards frothing for waves like the rest of us

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 4:21pm

It's pretty empty now with the 25km limit. I surfed in a session the other day with 10 and sessions either side had 4 and 3. That was on the left though - the right is always booked.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 5:25pm

I'm surprised by that. I thought they'd be heavily booked for the first month or so at least.

Although there typically used to be at least a few interstaters in the sessions I had before it closed. Can't tap that market at the moment.

Maybe / hopefully lockdown has got the better of a lot of city surfers meaning they've let it slip and it'll only be the really keen that get back into the ocean in a couple of weeks.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 5:54pm

“Maybe / hopefully lockdown has got the better of a lot of city surfers meaning they've let it slip and it'll only be the really keen that get back into the ocean in a couple of weeks”

Haha that is very wishful thinking but we can dream! Urbnsurf’s 25km radius misses the whole SE of melb, I’d think that is a better explanation

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 8:10pm

Yep thats much closer to the mark I think - fewer surfers in the inner north, north and west perhaps. Everyone was frothing to be back. I'm aiming to book a few more sessions before the 25km is lifted.

Surfing with fewer than 12 in a group was hectic (no time to rest) but a veritable bounty of waves that almost sated me.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 8:31am

Yeh it's out of my 25km but I just got myself a work permit in case I'm pulled over. Can visit if it's 25km within your work too, not just home

Machar's picture
Machar's picture
Machar commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 6:22pm

It scares me to think what the crowds are going to be like in a couple of weeks down here......

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 7:25pm

24,000 holidays houses on the Mornington Peninsula. I don't know the stats for SC.
Both coasts economical speaking run on tourism everyone knows that. So I just don't understand why people who live on the coast complain about it. It's been a summertime Haven for 200 years.
And I have mentioned it a couple of times here on this forum that There was a survey done on SC of the Surfers at a popular spot and only 25% were from Melbourne the rest were from greater geelong.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 7:35pm

Probably not complaining, just venting and not looking forward to it..
Gotta let it out piggy

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 7:45pm

Where is VL when you need him??
We need him around so we can take him up in his offer of sharing the waves with a smile.
Greyhound, I rather be worrying about crowd numbers than worrying about not being able to surf for 6 weeks because of restrictions, which turned into 12 weeks, which turned into, lost count...
Be thankful if you have had the opportunity to surf and try to look forward to sharing a few waves with your metro cousins.
See u soon (fingers crossed)

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 9:59pm

Always thankful frodge, always.. I know I’m lucky to have had my addiction somewhat satisfied over the course of lockdowns etc.
( even with a pretty average sc winter)
I’ve got no problem with those that do the right thing in the water. Can’t help hooting when I see others get good waves, even strangers.. now we just need some waves..

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 7:43am

yeeow

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 8:18pm

Furymuff Mr greyhound I understand. Must be annoying to not be able to get a car park at the beach Close to where you live especially when it's hot and pumping totally understand

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 7:37pm

I am looking forward to getting back into the surf at Westernport and at the Prom. as of Nov.9th. One imagines it will be very busy in the first week or two back . I hope the surf conditions improve. I am now swimming laps at the outdoor pool and paddling in the bay to get my paddling fitness back.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 28 Oct 2020 at 7:40pm

Great stuff Mr T

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 8:23am

Can't wait for the 9th...bring it home craigos!

Like most i have managed to get a bit of a fill at the tub....not the ocean but good to get wet and have a few waves...

can't wait to get back out there though!!

Shame this whole thing has driven some localism with the minority...i think in the end that was always going to happen but i reckon the majority that haven't been restricted would appreciate and feel for those of us that have. In the end surfing is a community of like minded folk regardless of where you live!
PEACE

Joff's picture
Joff's picture
Joff commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 9:49am

Melbourne surfers are going to notice a big difference in crowd numbers when they're allowed back down here (SC).
Half of regional Victoria now surf.
Every female between the ages of 16-25 from the greater Geelong region now rides a long board at Torquay Point, PA, Posso's, PRK and Urquharts. Not that there's anything wrong with that - just an observation.
These stats are official and from the surfcovidVIC.com.au website.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 10:18am

Agreed, Melbourne shortboarders might want to pack something a bit more floaty for the trip as well, just in case they have to go head to head with this new demographic wave.

Chris Tacke's picture
Chris Tacke's picture
Chris Tacke commented Friday, 30 Oct 2020 at 12:41am

That is so true.. the surf is for everyone but covid has made a huge difference to crowds, its more crowded without melbourne ..have got used to it..it will surprise the guys and gals that havent been down for a while ,moving to portland, as numbers will be unworkable in a few years

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 10:25am

From now until Feb the predominant surf conditions in Vic will be small, weak swell with winds out of the N/E to S/E quadrant.

People in Melbourne who surf would be best advised to hit Phillip Island, the Ninsula and further East once November 9 arrives. Would just be a waste of time and petty driving down to the Surfcoast and surrounds with those conditions on offer.

Hope that helps!

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 10:35am

Now that's just cruel.

Unless in April 2021 you post a similar message about the return to Westerly winds and strong swells!

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 10:41am

Banks are shithouse on the MP. All the sand is built up on the shore atm for some reason

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 5:30pm

All sounding pretty grim fellas, maybe we all just quit surfing

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 2:30pm

1-A8914-DA-DA11-49-A1-AB7-E-89-BB991-B7-E3-C

Surprise MF’s! Felt like this just materialised in rhe last 20 mins!

I am the bone

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 29 Oct 2020 at 4:00pm

We got one as well Nick (or we are under that, depending on the direction)
It rained a little, turned winds offshore/glassy, so I went for a grovel.

Edit: there was a sea fog that rolled in from the S, going into the thing, right before it developed.
And last night the electric powerlines were buzzing, power went off a few times & SES were fanging around in trucks and utes: must've been a fair bit of moisture around!