Not much chance for a decent surf in the short term
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 28th October)
Best Days: Desperate surfers tomorrow AM, Monday morning exposed beaches, late next week
A continuation of generally poor conditions across the Surf Coast though some beaches offered OK waves for the keen, a bit better to the east with cross-shore conditions and a mix of easing SW and SE swells from 3-4ft.
Today conditions are a touch better across all locations but the SE swell has started to ease with 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and Mornington Peninsula.
This week and next (Oct 29 – Nov 6)
The source of the SE windswell is now breaking down, that being a surface trough off the southern NSW coast, squeezing a strong high to our south. This created strong E/SE winds through Bass Strait and as winds swing around to the E/NE-NE tomorrow morning, the swell source will be gone, resulting in easing levels of small, weak SE windswell.
Dawn will likely be lumpy and peaky, with the cleanest conditions seen on the beaches mid-late morning before sea breezes kick in ahead of a trough and shift to fresher S/SW-S winds.
The Surf Coast looks to ease from a weak 1-2ft with similar sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Therefore it'll only be for the super keen and on a board with plenty of volume.
During the afternoon, a very inconsistent new long-period W/SW groundswell should start to show, but this will be with the sea breezes and change.
There's no change to the expected size, with the swell generated in our far western swell window resulting in small, infrequent 2ft to possibly 3ft sets on the Surf Coast Friday when it peaks, 4-5ft on the sets to the east and smaller in between.
Unfortunately the secondary trough moving in from the west Thursday evening will bring onshore winds out of the SE, freshening through the day. There might be a window of lighter E/SE winds early but keep an eye on the local wind observations.
The weekend looks poor with Friday's swell due to slowly ease along with fresh S/SE tending S'ly winds on Saturday and moderate to fresh S/SE winds through Sunday.
A small mid-period SW swell should slow the easing trend on Sunday, generated by a south-east tracking, weak low, with this swell not topping the size seen Friday.
The swell will fade Monday from 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east as winds finally swing back to the E/NE through the morning, even N/NE late morning. This is likely worth jumping on and the pick of the period.
Tuesday will be clean again but the surf tiny to flat.
We then look towards the increase in activity through the Southern Ocean from this weekend through next week, with a broad node of the Long Wave Trough due to strengthen south-west of WA, pushing east while weakening.
This will cause a strong, broad polar low to develop around the Heard Island region, moving east while generating a fetch of W/SW gales in our medium-range south-western swell window. We'll even likely see core winds reach severe-gale, with the storm weakening while pushing slowly east next week.
An inconsistent, moderate sized SW groundswell is due, with it arriving Thursday, building into the afternoon, then easing slowly Friday. Size wise it looks to come in around 4ft on the sets across the swell magnets on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft+ to the east.
Winds are tricky at this stage but a trough looks to bring onshore S'ly breezes Thursday, possibly swinging back W'ly Friday morning ahead of another trough, but more on this and the swell size Friday.