Moderate sized westerly swells and favourable winds
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 28th September)
Best Days: Tomorrow (more so afternoon), Friday, Saturday, Sunday morning
Fun waves across the state's exposed beaches yesterday with clean conditions and easing 3ft+ sets, 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets.
Today the swell has bottomed out and morning N'ly winds will shift NW into the afternoon.
This week and weekend (Oct 1 - 4)
We've got an upgrade in the first pulse of W/SW swell due tomorrow across the state, with the mid-latitude low generating it now due to be a touch stronger.
It's currently south of the Bight and generating a fetch of W/SW gales in our western swell window, with it continuing east through our swell window today while dipping east-southeast.
The swell should fill in through the day and peak into the afternoon, with the morning looking small but we should now see the Surf Coast building to 3ft+ with 5-6ft sets to the east.
Winds look favourable all day for protected spots with a W/NW-NW breeze, likely more NW later in the day.
The swell should hold in size Friday morning, and we'll see a reinforcing W/SW swell into the afternoon, generated by a broader though less favourably aligned fetch of W/NW gales moving under WA and the Bight from this evening through tomorrow.
The size looks similar to that of the morning, with sets holding 3ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets and 5-6ft or so to the east. 4ft sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets look most likely into Friday afternoon.
Saturday will likely see a slight drop in size through the day, though starting from a similar range as to that of Friday, afternoon/evening with a new swell on the cards for Sunday, discussed below after the wind outlook.
Now, conditions on Friday and Saturday look favourable for a wide variety of locations, but it'll be windy.
A deepening trough across South Australia will see winds strengthen out of the N/NW on Friday, but the Mornington Peninsula is likely to see winds out of the N'th most of the day.
Saturday looks windier with strong N'ly winds across all locations in the morning, possibly easing and shifting more N/NW through the afternoon ahead of an evening change as the trough moves east across us.
The trough line may linger across our region on Sunday resulting in variable winds, but we'll have to review this Friday.
Coming back to Sunday's additional pulse of groundswell, and this will be generated by a more distant fetch of strong to gale-force SW-W/SW winds developing south-west of WA this afternoon and evening. The fetch will almost be anchored in positioned, weakening through tomorrow evening, with an inconsistent W/SW groundswell spreading out and arriving across our region on Sunday.
Size wise the swell looks similar to those before it and to 3ft+ across the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing Monday. Winds for Monday look dicey in the wake of the trough proper, with SW'ly breezes more than likely, possibly W'ly early around Torquay.
The remnants of the trough may deepen east of us next week, bringing poor and fresh to strong S/SE winds Tuesday, possibly around to the NE Wednesday, but more on this next update.