Craig

Moderate sized westerly swells and favourable winds

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 28th September)

Best Days: Tomorrow (more so afternoon), Friday, Saturday, Sunday morning

Recap

Fun waves across the state's exposed beaches yesterday with clean conditions and easing 3ft+ sets, 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets.

Today the swell has bottomed out and morning N'ly winds will shift NW into the afternoon.

This week and weekend (Oct 1 - 4)

We've got an upgrade in the first pulse of W/SW swell due tomorrow across the state, with the mid-latitude low generating it now due to be a touch stronger.

It's currently south of the Bight and generating a fetch of W/SW gales in our western swell window, with it continuing east through our swell window today while dipping east-southeast.

The swell should fill in through the day and peak into the afternoon, with the morning looking small but we should now see the Surf Coast building to 3ft+ with 5-6ft sets to the east.

Winds look favourable all day for protected spots with a W/NW-NW breeze, likely more NW later in the day.

The swell should hold in size Friday morning, and we'll see a reinforcing W/SW swell into the afternoon, generated by a broader though less favourably aligned fetch of W/NW gales moving under WA and the Bight from this evening through tomorrow.

The size looks similar to that of the morning, with sets holding 3ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets and 5-6ft or so to the east. 4ft sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets look most likely into Friday afternoon.

Saturday will likely see a slight drop in size through the day, though starting from a similar range as to that of Friday, afternoon/evening with a new swell on the cards for Sunday, discussed below after the wind outlook.

Now, conditions on Friday and Saturday look favourable for a wide variety of locations, but it'll be windy.

A deepening trough across South Australia will see winds strengthen out of the N/NW on Friday, but the Mornington Peninsula is likely to see winds out of the N'th most of the day.

Saturday looks windier with strong N'ly winds across all locations in the morning, possibly easing and shifting more N/NW through the afternoon ahead of an evening change as the trough moves east across us.

The trough line may linger across our region on Sunday resulting in variable winds, but we'll have to review this Friday.

Coming back to Sunday's additional pulse of groundswell, and this will be generated by a more distant fetch of strong to gale-force SW-W/SW winds developing south-west of WA this afternoon and evening. The fetch will almost be anchored in positioned, weakening through tomorrow evening, with an inconsistent W/SW groundswell spreading out and arriving across our region on Sunday.

Size wise the swell looks similar to those before it and to 3ft+ across the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing Monday. Winds for Monday look dicey in the wake of the trough proper, with SW'ly breezes more than likely, possibly W'ly early around Torquay.

The remnants of the trough may deepen east of us next week, bringing poor and fresh to strong S/SE winds Tuesday, possibly around to the NE Wednesday, but more on this next update.

Comments

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 10:32am

Gotta luv it when you get a free, out of the blue upgrade.

Cheers Craig :》

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 4:45pm

You’re safe for little while longer Surf Coast. Sounds like roadmap is changing again-

Journo: “If Melbourne moves to the next stage on October 19th will travel to regional Victoria be allowed and what do you expect the grand final long weekend to look like for regional tourism businesses?”
Andrews: “In terms of travel to regional Victoria I think that’s going to be limited in one form or anther for still some time. And again, whilst that’s not necessarily the news that regional tourism businesses would want to hear. I think that it is, when you think about it the benefits of freedom of movement against the risks of the virus seeding into regional communities where there’s literally no new cases, only 4 over the last fortnight, it’s not a fair trade if you like…The time will come when that border between Melbourne and regional Victoria can off but it can’t come off until its safe to do that…”

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 5:53pm

When is that from geek?

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 6:58pm

Geek
That’s a little bit devastating if true.
Do u have a link or clear reference as to where that quote comes from please?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 8:35pm

I sure do, should go straight to the time stamp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yV_175jVKs&feature=youtu.be&t=2779
He’s lost the fucking plot

Edit: 46min mark if it doesn’t work

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 8:53pm

Thanks, that worked.

Devastating if it's true. Complete backflip on what they said when they announced the road map.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 9:21pm

Thanks Geek, i think?

WTF?

Surely if cases are under 5 and predominantly based in aged care, they can’t keep metro locked up.

Only time will tell, but it’s not looking promising.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 9:44pm

I was looking on the Vic Gov Covid website before and it looks like it has been changed for metro Melb so that there is only unrestricted travel within Vic when we get 14 days without any new cases.

I hope I’m wrong.

Dx3's picture
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Dx3 commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 10:33pm

Absolutely fucked but to be expected from this shifty fucker, he’ll just keep changing the goalposts until we all go insane. He’s hunting for eradication, he’s just too much of a coward to say it (14 days at zero, and then final step is 28 days at zero). Have a look at how restricted everything still is at the Oct 19 date/step 3 of whatever they are calling it now.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 10:35pm

Just checked the roadmap, updated as of the 27 September, it says no restrictions on reasons or distance for travel for the third step.
Seems like they may have changed their minds again since then?

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 4:33am

Frodge are you sure that’s not the regional roadmap? From what I could see, unrestricted travel for metro Melbourne is only when we get to the last step. There is very little detail of what step 3 looks like.

This is what I was looking at. https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-reopening-roadma...

Frodge's picture
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Frodge commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:06am

https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-09/Victorias...

This is dated 27th, but I think Geeks quote was from yesterday.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:10am

Down the very bottom it says intrastate travel not allowed. Only allowed when we get to 0 cases for 14 days.

Anyone got an older copy of that roadmap? I swear it wasn't there when I last looked. I have a sinking feeling that Melbourne metro wont see the ocean until December. NSW hasn't gone 14 days without any cases as far as I'm aware.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:16am

yeh was yesterdays press conference. According to roadmap above "Intrastate travel: Allowed across Third Step area (can’t travel to areas with higher restrictions)", Thing is regional can't move to stage 4 until "we reach no new cases for 14 days (state-wide)". So regional can't move to stage 4 until metro can = intrastate travel is allowed from Oct 19th as we will both be stage 3.

Regardless, I don't believe a word out of that slimy buggers mouth so I'm preparing for the worst and assuming roadmap will be changed and I will need to cancel my wedding anniversary weekend away for the 4th time

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:27am

Yes seems suitably confusing...

[edit] just re-read it
Allowed across Third Step area (can’t travel to areas with higher restrictions)

So maybe it will happen.

Either way the Pool is going to fill back up pretty quickly as soon as the booking form opens up.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:28am

Yep pool will be booked solid, but in terms of ocean, the MP would be smashed with visitors & surfers like never before if it was the only area we could go.

Heck, the way this shifty cunt operates I wouldn't put it past him to allow travel within metro Melbourne only, but then change the classification of MP to now be regional for the purposes of not allowing people to head down there.

Dx3's picture
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Dx3 commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:45am

Anthony - I can't see where you are seeing that for the third step??

On our quest for 14 days at zero (eradication), that may never happen. What then?!

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:39am

What then?
Well I'm looking into New Zealand myself haha

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 9:20am
Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:24am

Correct Frodge, that is the roadmap I've been looking at. It's also the roadmap that Dan himself tweeted out and that tweet is still on his page, and the roadmap still listed on the covidVic page.

- Leave home: no restrictions on reasons to leave home or distance but stay safe
- Intrastate travel: Allowed across Third Step area (can’t travel to areas with higher restrictions)

Important to note, regional VIC if we believe the roadmap, can't move to the next step until as a state we achieve zero cases.

So what that shows in the clearest possible terms, you can not trust this shifty cunt Andrews at all. He is now ignoring the roadmap that has supposedly been developed with his expert team including medical professionals, and he's making his own calls now.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 11:48am

At least with La Nina, MP may have more options - Best of a bad situation?

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 12:09pm

Andrews spoke of travel restrictions again today when questioned relating to step 3/Oct 19.

Said no decisions have been made & won't be until we get to that point, but he expects there to be some level of limitations on travel distance in place for a bit longer. How much longer he didn't say.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 12:29pm

Yes just read that.

He also said that if we can't travel to regional Victoria after the 19th it doesn't necessarily follow that regional travel will be prohibited until the next step. There may be a half step somewhere in between perhaps that gets us in the water sooner.

Dx3's picture
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Dx3 commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 12:35pm

Yep, let's hope it's very soon after if not Oct 19. Less about surfing for me and just wanting to take the family away for a few days before the madness of the summer holidays comes and it's too busy to enjoy anywhere/find an available place to stay!

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 4:52pm

Very little motion in the ocean this afternoon. Nice looking weather front on the way though.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 7:45pm

the gunsmoke blue cloud in the background - went for a walk under it just as it hit, got absolutely pissed on. It was kind of fun and taking a waterproof jacket turned out to be smart, but rest of clothes were so drenched I left them in the back of the wagon and drove home in underpants.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 9:42am

Couldn’t count the times I’ve driven home cold and naked so I can jump straight into the shower, begging for a RBT or booze bus. Love to experience the conversation..

I am the bone

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 11:22am

Hey you two, sounds like you've been getting acquainted with the GaryG way of life. Once you start going down that track, its a slippery slope on your way to debauchery, isn't it GaryG ;)

ringmaster's picture
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ringmaster commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:29am

Flat as a witches tit here this morning. Relax in the knowledge that you aint missing out on anything on the first day of October.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 12:11pm

Here's some of the Q&A from today's press conference.

Question: Can you clarify, is travel out of Melbourne to regional Victoria allowed under Step 3?

Daniel Andrews:

It will depend on a couple of things: One, the detailed advice I get. Two, the amount of virus that is in Melbourne, assuming we can take that next step, though.

That may be safe within Melbourne. Whether it is safe to have a free movement without rules into regional Victoria, that matter has not been settled.

But we are turning our mine to that and we will be very clear with people on or about the 19th when hopefully we can take that next step in metro Melbourne.

We will be very clear with people about what travel opportunities there are. I think that certainly all of the regional Victorian leaders and others that I speak to are very keen to make sure we done do anything that compromises the very low virus status.

So just 0.3 cases per day over a 14-day period. No-one in regional Victoria wants that to be compromised. I know and understand that many people will for the best of reasons want to travel to regional areas, whether it be to see family or friends or to attend to a whole range of important matters, but we have to be really careful not to put at risk what regional Victorians have been able to achieve and that is very, very low virus status, but we will have more to say about that when we get to that point.

Nobody will be in any doubt by the time we got to the 19th about what the weeks after that look like for the purposes of travel.

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 12:11pm

And this:

Q: Even if we move to the next step and the daily average is only five cases, you are still saying that might be unsafe to travel to regional Victoria?

Daniel Andrews:

What I am saying is we have not landed on that. There may be travel that we don’t think is safe.

We may have an expanded list of reasons why you can go, but I can’t at this stage - with may at that point - but at this stage I can’t say the “ring of steel”, as it has been called, will be threaten open and everyone can travel throughout the state.

That may not be a smart thing to do at that point. That shouldn’t be read to mean that for all of the second half of October and all of November that those rules would stay in place.

There might be a shorter period, for instance. I know why you ask the question, it is really important and on a very personal note, my mum would be very keen to see that boundary go. Yours, too. I get it.

There is some economic reasons. There is all sorts of reasons, but the ones that I think are perhaps the most powerful are those perform links, not being able to see the people that you love is very, very hard. We will get that done as soon as we possibly can.

You can pass that message on to your mum from me - we will get there as quickly as we possibly can.

Patrick0710's picture
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Patrick0710 commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 1:29pm

Sutton keeps stressing the mystery case numbers more than the new ones, that's the concern before lifting restrictions.
Probably a safe bet that 50% of regional businesses are screaming at Andrews for the gates to be opened and 50% are screaming for them to stay shut as long as there's even just one dirty Melburnian on the loose!

melbo's picture
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melbo commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:06pm

“Dirty Melbournian”nice call fuckwit.

Patrick0710's picture
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Patrick0710 commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:56pm

I am a dirty Melburnian, hence the correct spelling! Even worse, I’m a dirty St Kildaian!

Patrick0710's picture
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Patrick0710 commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:59pm

I shoulda put it in quote marks to make it clear I was paraphrasing!

melbo's picture
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melbo commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 9:28pm

Misunderstood on my behalf, this cabin fever has me on edge.

Patrick0710's picture
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Patrick0710 commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 9:56pm

Not at all, that’s why I mentioned I should’ve been clearer. Know EXACTLY what you mean about cabin fever. I’ve snapped so many times the past few weeks.
Hope you get a few soon.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 7:46pm

Westerly swells are always disappointing around these part's but this arvo was, well, barely breaking. Inconsistent 1ft with a very occasional 2ft wave :(

However, there sure was plenty of action further out at sea, looked like two bait-balls, just off the coast! The dolphin's were herding, bird's bombing and the other predators well... we couldn't see them but surely they would have been there too.

Hopefully something tomorrow....

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 8:03pm

The other predators were there... watching you from the sand dunes

ringmaster's picture
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ringmaster commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 10:18pm

Yeah......surfed from 5pm and while it looked pretty the reality was pretty duuuhh.

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ringmaster commented Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 10:19pm

and the Cats just lost........FUUUCK