Slim pickings this period
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 23rd September)
Best Days: Today, Desperate surfers tomorrow, keen surfers on the beaches Monday and early Tuesday before the swell fades
Clean though small 1-2ft waves on the Surf Coast yesterday morning, and OK across protected beaches of Melbourne before winds shifted to the west and strengthened along with a late increase in swell.
Today, winds have backed off and we've got 2ft+ of mid-period W/SW swell on the Surf Coast from a weak low moving in from the west, poor and choppy to the east.
This week and weekend (Sep 24 – 27)
The swell source for today, that being a weakening mid-latitude low drifting south-east across and and then through Bass Strait, will continue to weaken today, resulting in a drop in surf through tomorrow.
The Surf Coast will back off from a slow, weak 2ft, with 3-4ft sets to the east and winds should improve through the day, swinging from the W/NW to N/NW into the afternoon. It's worth noting the models are over-forecasting the size tomorrow and combining the easing mid-period W/SW swell with windswell energy.
We then look at the cold shot of polar air moving up and across the state later week and into the weekend, forming into a deep low but also drawing up polar frontal activity behind it.
Looking at Friday morning and there's no window for clean conditions across any location now, with a trough bringing a weak onshore change around dawn out of the S/SW and this will freshen through the day. There'll be no swell of size or power in any case so it'll be a lay day.
Stronger SW winds are due into Saturday morning, easing through the day as the western flank of the low moves in and across us, with a broad fetch of strong S/SW winds being dragged up behind it.
This should bring with it some mid-period S/SW swell on Sunday, with Saturday consisting of weak, locally generated windswell.
Size wise, Sunday looks to come in around 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4ft+ to the east but with lingering and moderate to fresh S/SW winds. We'll likely see better conditions into the afternoon as winds ease to moderate and tend more S'ly.
Moving into next week and unfortunately Monday still looks dicey with a light, lingering S/SW breeze as the S/SW swell eases. There's a chance winds may go variable through the morning, but we'll review this Friday. Size wise the Surf Coast looks to ease from 2ft+, and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Tuesday looks much better on the beaches with a N/NE offshore, but the swell will be all but gone, tiny on the Surf Coast and possibly 2ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
The rest of the week looks void of swell but with favourable winds out of the northern quadrant, with some new westerly swell energy on the cards for Friday afternoon and the weekend. The source will be weak Southern Ocean fronts moving in from the south-west of WA, under the country, producing mid-period W/SW swells, but we'll have a closer look at this Friday.