Craig

Slim pickings this period

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 23rd September)

Best Days: Today, Desperate surfers tomorrow, keen surfers on the beaches Monday and early Tuesday before the swell fades

Recap

Clean though small 1-2ft waves on the Surf Coast yesterday morning, and OK across protected beaches of Melbourne before winds shifted to the west and strengthened along with a late increase in swell.

Today, winds have backed off and we've got 2ft+ of mid-period W/SW swell on the Surf Coast from a weak low moving in from the west, poor and choppy to the east.

This week and weekend (Sep 24 – 27)

The swell source for today, that being a weakening mid-latitude low drifting south-east across and and then through Bass Strait, will continue to weaken today, resulting in a drop in surf through tomorrow.

The Surf Coast will back off from a slow, weak 2ft, with 3-4ft sets to the east and winds should improve through the day, swinging from the W/NW to N/NW into the afternoon. It's worth noting the models are over-forecasting the size tomorrow and combining the easing mid-period W/SW swell with windswell energy.

We then look at the cold shot of polar air moving up and across the state later week and into the weekend, forming into a deep low but also drawing up polar frontal activity behind it.

Looking at Friday morning and there's no window for clean conditions across any location now, with a trough bringing a weak onshore change around dawn out of the S/SW and this will freshen through the day. There'll be no swell of size or power in any case so it'll be a lay day.

Stronger SW winds are due into Saturday morning, easing through the day as the western flank of the low moves in and across us, with a broad fetch of strong S/SW winds being dragged up behind it.

This should bring with it some mid-period S/SW swell on Sunday, with Saturday consisting of weak, locally generated windswell.

Size wise, Sunday looks to come in around 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4ft+ to the east but with lingering and moderate to fresh S/SW winds. We'll likely see better conditions into the afternoon as winds ease to moderate and tend more S'ly.

Moving into next week and unfortunately Monday still looks dicey with a light, lingering S/SW breeze as the S/SW swell eases. There's a chance winds may go variable through the morning, but we'll review this Friday. Size wise the Surf Coast looks to ease from 2ft+, and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Tuesday looks much better on the beaches with a N/NE offshore, but the swell will be all but gone, tiny on the Surf Coast and possibly 2ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

The rest of the week looks void of swell but with favourable winds out of the northern quadrant, with some new westerly swell energy on the cards for Friday afternoon and the weekend. The source will be weak Southern Ocean fronts moving in from the south-west of WA, under the country, producing mid-period W/SW swells, but we'll have a closer look at this Friday.

Comments

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 9:08am

Perfect forecast for the poor souls in lock down!

Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 9:52am

Already been a stella run, weekend was amazing..a break with the weather gives it a little bit of rest-up. Quite happy to see Melbourne locked-down ever more, so 1000-of-the-closest friends can leave locals in peace. It's 1985 all over again. But it won't last. The backlash from this shyte will be beaches full of drongos doing what they do best.. kooking the place right up. #juuuuustsayin'

Never a sad day on the waves…but as far as other things go…well, let me talk (moan-away) to you.

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 2:10pm

because proximity to the ocean makes it more yours than others..

walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 9:19pm

Well no, but maybe paying Surf Coast Shire council rates which pay for all the parking lots and maintained tracks to your favourite breaks counts for something.

Don't take me too seriously.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 10:47pm

Hah!

Got a big property? Racked up a few parking fines? Registered your dog(s)? Great! You're a big time contributor to Surf Coast Shire and thus deserve respect and more waves!!!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 1:24pm

Someone's gotta pay for the nice jobs in the big building...

Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 10:02am

I plan to be back in Melbourne when all that crap happens..which is generally the best option. Circus comes to town and places of beauty and serenity become loved to death in a show of stupidity and idiocy as crowds fight for 7-10 wave sets every 7-10 minutes.. Only one coming out on top with that rubbish is the surfboard in ya eye. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEEU1qLBTf8 (Surfing age-old supply and demand problem) (With demand increasing also due to increased reporting and supply..well, last I heard the waves weren't making em selfs??)

Never a sad day on the waves…but as far as other things go…well, let me talk (moan-away) to you.

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 12:24pm

Subscribes to Swellnet, muses about reporting. Carrying on about crowds.
Stop surfing. Might be happier.

Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 4:13pm

My post suggested I'm happier surfing right now.. (For obvious reasons) Where did the stop surfing might be happier bit come into it?? I don't follow..

Never a sad day on the waves…but as far as other things go…well, let me talk (moan-away) to you.

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:38pm

Easy solution: Melbourne crew get exclusive access to all breaks for 1 month after the release from lockdown as a thank you. Keeps the crowds very, very manageable.

Cheers!

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 10:06am

Yep another great report for us on the MP who live just outside the 5km zone.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 11:33am

Never seen so many ppl surfing in the bays of Mornington yesterday. The desperation is real

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 11:35am

Looked like the classic Adelaide stormies that I grew up with! 

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 12:38pm

Haha same but with the afternoon summer seabreezes in Perth

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 2:07pm

My opinion might be skewed by a bit of the old 'it used to be better 10 years ago', but Adelaide metro stormies generally are much better and bigger than Melb Metro stormies.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 2:10pm

Ah yeah that makes sense, deeper and longer fetch. More oomph.

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 2:29pm

Ha Yeah we had a crack yesterday..abit delusional but every now and then a lump came through that would keep us out just alittle longer

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 3:00pm

Nothing to be ashamed about a bay surf. I, like many others learned to surf at places like Altona, Williamstown, St Kilda and Brighton etc. Many of them went on to bigger things too. It made those first trips down the coast seem like Nirvana. I can still remember seeing my first clean tubing wave paddling out at Jan Juc. I'm curious if many people still learn and surf in the bay.

mark

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 8:29pm

i'm curious as to when you saw a wave tube at juc

Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 4:11pm

Did I mention ownership of the ocean in any of my post? - I was musing about crowds from Melbourne. That was it. - But shame on you for suggesting such a thing as nature can be owned by anyone. The irony is..your government has placed ownership over your movements to truly drive home whom is in the better position right now. I'll keep stirring the pot for ya while we all await your imminent arrival...with 1000 of your closest friends. ;-)

Never a sad day on the waves…but as far as other things go…well, let me talk (moan-away) to you.

Pete7's picture
Pete7's picture
Pete7 commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 5:28pm

The real irony here is you saying there's never a sad day on the waves then whinging about crowded days on the waves..

Pete7

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 4:25pm

I surfed this arvo, as work is quiet. It was very reminiscent of a baywave/stormy, still, I managed a couple of weak turns in amungst the 2ft windswell junk, so it was a nice way to end the day.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 4:42pm

Bit of talk about today that more restrictions than originally planned will ease this coming Sunday... wonder if the 5km limit (within metro melb) will be included in that?? Unlikely but ya never know

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 5:40pm

Thought I heard that all Melbourne surfers will be allowed access to Torquay for 2 hrs exercise from Monday onwards, unfortunately the peninsula will have roadblocks....just a rumour

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 6:17pm

What is it with Torquay tools?
First that NWS flog now this timm dah knob-jockey turns up.
Same person?

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 8:02pm

NWS’ sin bin time out must be up and he’s back under another alias, or they’re just related/best buddies/one of his many house mates his complains about...

Come on Dan, bring us some love - don’t like our chances though.

Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah's picture
Timm-Dah commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 8:15pm

Knob jockey? - Love it. So it descends into name calling. Classy stuff. Clearly some frustrated Melbourne city-slickers looking for scraps. Enjoy what ya get..when ya finally get it...with 1000 of closest mates in the car park ;0) Ha..

Never a sad day on the waves…but as far as other things go…well, let me talk (moan-away) to you.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 8:49pm

Timm-Dah, it’s been pretty civil in these parts since your counterpart was sin binned.
Posts like yours seem to bring the best out of people.

On a separate note,
I can’t wait to actually read the forecast notes again instead of just the comments - can’t bring myself to read them at the moment - reading the updates used to be something to look forward to in between sessions.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 8:48pm

You’re in the wrong place if you’re expecting class

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 6:47am

Timm- Dah said he plans to be back in Melbourne.
Sounds like he might be one of those blow ins that thinks he or she is more local than the next blow in.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 7:06am

Timm-Dah has been sin-binned for a week.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 7:37am

Classic.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 1:26pm

the people who have just sacked those people, have been sacked.

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:20am

Ben, great to see that swellnet is taking a firmer stance with the aggression and abuse that has previously been tolerated and allowed to exist as commonplace in these threads.
For me it has always been the disappointing part of swellnet, which in every other respect offers such a well considered and high quality platform.

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:55am

Reckon the 5km rule could be sin binned too! Maybe following school holidays to avoid a mass exodus to the ninch. Still this would equate to 3-4 weeks earlier than planned which is nice

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 9:13am

Yeh agree, after all we've been through I reckon seeing out the school holiday period before travel restrictions ease would be a smart move. Kids go back October 5th, open up then.

Can't believe I just advocated for that restriction to stay in place for a bit, what has happened to me.!

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 10:05am

At the point where risk outweighs the reward to drop the 5km rule. Would prefer to wait to the regional opening up to share the load otherwise MP and Yarra ranges will be absolutely slammed by crew wanting to get out of the city. What can you do though, unfortunately Dan’s proven time and time again he don’t give a shit about those 2 regions.

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 10:31am

I've heard a few epidemiologists talk about after a long period like this some people come sprinting out but most of us are super cautious, either from a specific fear of catching the virus or a general fear of another outbreak happening.

I agree that waiting til after the school holidays would be sensible. Hopefully it could happen before the changed Grand Final holiday so Melbourne folk could get out to regional Vic for a long weekend and help the regional economy kick back into gear.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 10:36am

There'll definitely be a slingshot effect of people held back for so long will unleash themselves out into the world again. I won't lie, I'll be booking weekends away and day trips every single weekend, but I'll be doing all my activities outdoors, I ain't rushing back to the pub or restaurants, just want to get out and enjoy the state, not my suburb. If I go somewhere and it's busy, I'll keep moving until I find somewhere quieter.
In terms of surfing, I'll sacrifice quality of break for lower crowd, just being in the water with a little swell will be nice. The Juc reefs can wait.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 10:40am

Expect even those super out of the way breaks and isolated locations be that ocean/bush/wilderness to be busier than normal.

Once we were allowed to move around back here in NSW everyone was gagging to get out, let alone your guys stint. All the off the beaten track spots were busy and still are now.

Just try and be a bit more savvy and go even further off the beaten track if looking for true isolation or come with a more mellow vibe and just enjoy being outside and share the waves/environment.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 12:14pm

Good advice Craigos. Whilst I'm keen for a surf, I just wanna do something different than the local park, something outdoors, walk along a long wide beach, and if not many crew around, dare I say it....slip the mask down. Be nice for a change.

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 12:23pm

Yep, being outside and in the water will be nice. Reckon the muscles will just melt in relief after being locked up for so long.

And yeah, hopefully that relief will lead to mellow vibes, I know I'll just be happy to be out there again. And I'm sure the locals will welcome us back with open arms like French lasses welcoming GIs at the end of WWII! Maybe ...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 12:47pm

Sounds superb!

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 7:08pm

Yep, I'm also Very interested:)

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 11:24am

I think I can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. Been a long time dark here. Well done most Victorians!
I'm with you Dx3......out every weekend, surfing riding, fishing. Just like the old days, in Jan.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 11:35am

Your surf report was on the money this morning. Looked pretty good from up above and not many crew. The reality was slow, weak, short period windswelly type waves up to head high but mostly smaller. Nice and clean but bit of a let down.

All relative I spose. Melb crew would probably donate a nut to be out in that right now....

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 1:33pm

Your safe for now coastal dwellers, on the age blog about today’s press conference:

More significant lockdown measures, including the five-kilometre radius rule and the 9pm-to-5am curfew, will not be lifted until late October at the earliest – and only if the number of "mystery" cases with an unknown source over the previous 14-day period is fewer than five;

The "ring of steel" around Melbourne will remain in place until the city's COVID-19 infection rate falls as low as regional Victoria's, the Premier said. Melbourne's 14-day rolling case average fell to 26.7 today, while in regional Victoria it is just 1.1;

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 2:25pm

Something to be mindful of that I think has gone unnoticed by a few also, is that if regional vic get to zero around the time or before metro melb getting under 5 as per the 14 day average guiding principles in the roadmap for restriction easing, then regional vic will move even further ahead on the roadmap, and it states you can't travel to an area that is at a different stage in the roadmap.

So if that were to ooccur, metro melb may have the 5km limit and curfew dropped, but regional vic would still be one step ahead therefore the 'ring of steel' would remain in place preventing any metro folk getting out into the regions....Outcome = MP getting absolutely slaughtered with visitors and I ain't just talking about surfers.

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 2:50pm

And when the cops are distracted down the Peninsula we'll make a bust for Juc and Winki!

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 3:01pm

DX3
Going by the roadmap, regional Vic can’t step further until Metro catches up.
Last step for regional has state wide targets.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 3:11pm

Ahk Frodge, that's bloody good to hear, I must have missed that bit, cheers!

A Salty Dog's picture
A Salty Dog's picture
A Salty Dog commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 3:35pm

No active cases on the MP since 21 Sept. Therefore no case to maintain the 5km travel restriction for MP residents, who should be able to travel freely within the shire and to regional Victoria regardless of the Metro Melbourne boundary.

Don't like the chances though.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 3:36pm

Couldn’t agree more, it’s insane

A Salty Dog's picture
A Salty Dog's picture
A Salty Dog commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 3:44pm

Well I'm insane now too, thanks to Dan.

And it's not because of not getting a surf: I never thought I would finish up as frustrated as I am.

A bigger dilemma, however, is who to put last on the ballot sheet in all forthcoming elections: the useless ALP or the just as useless Liberals.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 4:24pm

Yep I've thought about this - what an awful decision to have to make on voting. The juvenile embarassing Libs who have offered nothing all year, or the woefully inept lying ALP who seem to have no fucking clue what's going on in their area of responsibility, let alone the level of ongoing restrictions.

Will need to closely consider the independent candidates, but even then you need to know who they are going to side with.

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:12pm

A has been stated repeatedly, it's the volume of people movement for permitted activities on and off the Peninsula and the fact the top half is basically suburban.
There are no active cases in my postcode either.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 9:03pm

Both the lib and lab members of parliament down here disagree with you there.

There would be as many (maybe more) heading from suburban greater Geelong, surf coast, bacchus marsh etc in to the much higher risk west for work. Just check out the roadblock traffic jam stretching km every day all day on the fwys

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 5:01pm

Why you think this 5km radius has stopped people already coming down already haha.

I am the bone

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:16pm

Simple.
Bored people everywhere, mostly locals.
So many more people are working from home too.
So many more people are walking around .getting coffee.
The Peninsula is not a sleepy little village no matter what you think. Lots of people you don't know down there probably surf.
Maybe lots of them have never had the time to put into surfing that they do now.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 25 Sep 2020 at 5:44am

I mentioned surfing where?

I am the bone

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Friday, 25 Sep 2020 at 8:36am

I've been travelling around for work couple of times a week only going as far up as Mornington but yet to see any significant police presence or roadblocks, could just be the times of day I'm around though

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:33pm

Since 2005 there are just under 50000 more people living within the Mornington Peninsula Shire . You just are not going to know every single face in the water. Simple.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Friday, 25 Sep 2020 at 7:01am

It's not a matter of The Bone knowing every face its if they don't know The Bone.
Might not know every surfer from the MP's face, but in my local area every local would know every surfer within 10km.
Also not classed as a local unless you went to play group down here, lived here for a minimum of 32 years, never travelled further than Dromana, or know someone who is related to someone who thinks they have seen a Bigfoot.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 9:39pm

I do love a good sensational winter-blast story:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/melbourne-canberra-weathe...

"The blast of polar air set to hit south eastern Australia over the coming days is expected to deliver maximum temperatures that haven’t been this low during September for almost two decades."

Christmas in July in September.