You're not missing anything
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th August)
Best Days: No good days
Good, fun waves across the exposed beaches yesterday across the state with an easing S/SW swell from 3ft across the Mornington Peninsula, 2ft on the Surf Coast.
Today the surf has bottomed out with tiny waves on the Surf Coast and 1ft to occasionally 2ft across the Mornington Peninsula.
This week and weekend (Aug 13 - 16)
The end of the week doesn't offer much in the way of surf, with small to tiny and background levels of distant swell from the Indian Ocean. The Surf Coast will remain tiny, with very infrequent 1-2ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Conditions will be favourable though as the broad mid-latitude low linked to the blocking of swell moves in slowly from the west while weakening.
Local offshore winds are due tomorrow morning, moderate out of the north, holding into the afternoon. Friday looks similar though the afternoon will likely see winds shift N/NE across all locations.
As we move into the weekend, the remnants of the low will move in, shifting winds light NW through the morning and then SW into the afternoon. There's no new swell expected through Saturday or Sunday.. none that will offer anything in those protected and clean locations in any case.
Sunday looks like we'll see freshening SW winds, possibly light W'ly at dawn on the Surf Coast, though tiny.
Next week onwards (Aug 17 onwards)
The models are showing a bit of mid-period W/SW swell for Monday, but the source is unclear and with W/NW winds, protected spots will be tiny again.
There's no new swell on the cards until late week, so we'll see the surf bottom out Tuesday and Wednesday as winds shift back to the N/NW.
This shift in winds to the north will be ahead of another mid-latitude low that will be quite intense as it moves in through the Bight, but too north to generate any swell for us.
As it continues east later in the week it's forecast to drag up a polar front behind it that may bring some new swell, but wind with it. So in short the average run of surf looks to extend into later next week. At least those in lockdown aren't missing out on much. More on the outlook Friday.