Craig

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Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th August)

Best Days: No good days

Recap

Good, fun waves across the exposed beaches yesterday across the state with an easing S/SW swell from 3ft across the Mornington Peninsula, 2ft on the Surf Coast.

Today the surf has bottomed out with tiny waves on the Surf Coast and 1ft to occasionally 2ft across the Mornington Peninsula.

This week and weekend (Aug 13 - 16)

The end of the week doesn't offer much in the way of surf, with small to tiny and background levels of distant swell from the Indian Ocean. The Surf Coast will remain tiny, with very infrequent 1-2ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions will be favourable though as the broad mid-latitude low linked to the blocking of swell moves in slowly from the west while weakening.

Local offshore winds are due tomorrow morning, moderate out of the north, holding into the afternoon. Friday looks similar though the afternoon will likely see winds shift N/NE across all locations.

As we move into the weekend, the remnants of the low will move in, shifting winds light NW through the morning and then SW into the afternoon. There's no new swell expected through Saturday or Sunday.. none that will offer anything in those protected and clean locations in any case.

Sunday looks like we'll see freshening SW winds, possibly light W'ly at dawn on the Surf Coast, though tiny.

Next week onwards (Aug 17 onwards)

The models are showing a bit of mid-period W/SW swell for Monday, but the source is unclear and with W/NW winds, protected spots will be tiny again.

There's no new swell on the cards until late week, so we'll see the surf bottom out Tuesday and Wednesday as winds shift back to the N/NW.

This shift in winds to the north will be ahead of another mid-latitude low that will be quite intense as it moves in through the Bight, but too north to generate any swell for us.

As it continues east later in the week it's forecast to drag up a polar front behind it that may bring some new swell, but wind with it. So in short the average run of surf looks to extend into later next week. At least those in lockdown aren't missing out on much. More on the outlook Friday.

Comments

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 9:33am

Go away Craig.. no forecast notes till mid next week please... or I could just stop looking at them..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 9:42am

Trying my best to keep it average, ha.

Not sure what's better.. forecasting pumping waves which many can't access or forecasting crap which means you're not missing out.

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 9:55am

Happy with the crap forecasting.....for a few weeks anyway.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 10:03am

Cheers Craig, I have never been so happy to see an extended run of crud before. Roll on the spring time south easterlies!

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 10:13am

Yes, those on lockdown might not be missing out, but everyone on the coast was looking forward to a 6-week run of decent waves with manageable crowds. The first couple of weeks of the Melbourne lockdown resulted in many reports of good manners and a good vibe in the water, even when the numbers were kinda high for the number of waves coming through. I experienced it at several name breaks, as did others. Now, I'm not saying that Melbourne surfers in general are badly behaved or local crew are saints, but I think it's pretty clear that there is potential for things to improve when the lockdown ends.

conrico's picture
conrico's picture
conrico commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 10:33am

love your work craig. keep up the forecasts of bad waves!

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 10:36am

Ear got drilled yesterday. Please post crap reports for at least 4 more weeks.

PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 10:45am

icandig I had my ear drilled Oct Last Year, doc wouldn't let me in the water till Jan :(
tango you are spot on, that 1st 2 weeks was great at dawn with very few in, didn't realize just how many do travel down

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 11:07am

You must have had some nasty lumps in there PL. This is 3rd time for me. 2 in left. 1 in the right - hopefully this is the last time. Never had to wait more than six weeks.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 11:08am

P.S. Not really wishing for bad surf. I like to watch even if I can't get wet. (You there Gary?)

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 5:59pm

Crikey, Ican, get yourself some good plugs mate. You've racked up some serious time out of the water with that many ops.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 6:29pm

First (left) was done around 17 years ago. Wore plugs on and off during those years, but was a little complacent. Then left ear again 3 years ago. Right ear was close to being drilled then, but held off for as long as I could. After the last left ear I wore plugs probably 95% of the time, but right ear still worsened. Won't surf without them now. Often wear beanies just to keep ears out of the wind. Never again. Feelin' pretty woozy today.....also probably the last list of elective surgery the doc can do for a while. He pushed hard to get me in.- if you want a recommendation. Craig Semple is a champion..

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 9:41am

He did my right ear about 6 years ago. I got custom plugs after that and they're fantastic - hole through the middle covered with a membrane so you can hear OK. Hardly ever get in the water without them.

The only positive to come out of it is to enjoy the endone! Get well.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 10:33am

Thanks tango. I think endone has a weird effect on me. Tripping last night with all kinds of weird visions. At least I won't have to do this anymore.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CDitiv3llmG/

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 1:47pm

My prediction is epic waves for the final week of lock down!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 2:26pm

Thought for a moment our Portsea camera had been magically transported from Back Beach to Front Beach.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 3:48pm

lol. no sand at porto front. silly ben

I am the bone

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 3:08pm

winner winner crayfish dinner!

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 5:03pm

I had a dive today and my head nearly froze off

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 8:43pm

https://www.instagram.com/p/CDx5MVfh-Ys/?igshid=1k6tapwnxhsyo

West Coasters coming over to the MP by boat to surf. That’s real low

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 8:37am

Interesting. There were def two guys out on the Porty cam on Tuesday. Looked good too. Didn’t realise surfing was off for all. And yes, before you ask, I was at home watching the surf cams because that is what my life has become!

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 9:53am

Bloody hell, that's serious. I can't find any reference to surfing in any of the DHHS material online. In fact it says:

"Can I go to the beach?
Yes, if there is a beach within 5km from your home. You can go to the beach for exercise only. Exercise is limited to a maximum of one hour per day."

It does say recreational activities like fishing are banned, but surfing is a bit more active than fishing (unless you're hooked up to a decent fish). Seems to be a case of a bunch of non-surfing coppers getting asked for advice and just see it as recreation. Seems a bit misguided that you can go to the beach for exercise on dry sand but not enter the water. Wonder if they'll let you bodysurf?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 10:21am

https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1289795907186122752?s=20

Surfing was specifically called out by the government as a sporting activity

tomlecerf's picture
tomlecerf's picture
tomlecerf commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 12:17pm

Surfing isn’t mentioned on the Parks Vic, Delwp, DHS websites or within the health officers directions. I think the idea that all you need to do to create a law is make a tweet seems pretty crazy

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 12:24pm

Fair point, surfing (and esp travelling to surf) has been in a weird grey area since day 1 of this shit

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 8:19pm

Who cares if this dictator calls out surfing and makes up his own rules. Common sense tells me to go surfing on my own

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 9:29am

Went for another dive this morning, decent bronzy (i think) maybe 5-6 foot long swam past and scared the Jesus H Christ out of me. went in straight away

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 9:43am

Fucken hell..........when's this August wave drought gunna end??? Usually the best or 2nd best month of the year for surf down here.

Crowds are gunna be next level when it does regardless of any lockdown in place.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 10:18am

I recon ringy.. killing me to.. if Craig doesn’t start tomorrows forecast notes with the heading “some light at the end of the long tunnel”. I’m asking for a refund.. wams starting to look a little more promising.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 10:49am

Hi greyhound, just had a look at the synoptic charts for the next week. Do you want the truth or do you want me to give you a bullshit forecast saying there's swell on the way?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 1:57pm

The bullshit forecast.. I’d be happy with 3 ft right now.. can’t get any worse than it has been.. hope is a wonderful thing..

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 1:30pm

You bet they will be. As soon as legally possible I'll be down every bloody day there is anything at 2ft and above. Can't wait to be welcomed with open arms by all the locals who have had the waves to themselves for weeks on end....

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 1:59pm

MP can’t surf,,, surf coast been no surf Dx3..

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 2:08pm

My comment was a bit tongue in cheek greyhound. Every surfer out there will be legitimately wave starved, could be an interesting vibe.

Might just hit the tulla tub if that ever opens again

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 5:38pm

Interesting you mention it Dx3. We can already see what will happen by looking at the SW of England, which has just opened up after their restrictions:
https://www.northdevongazette.co.uk/news/north-devon-coronvirus-warning-...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/united-kingdom/ar...
Eg. Groups of 100 tents on Dartmoor, coastal towns overrun. That will come here
My 2c is that is actually OK if the virus has been overcome - you guys are doing it tough and it's only natural to want to get free, breathe and surf when it's permitted. Our family is doing the same down on the coast for medical reasons, it's been 5 months now (and I'm actually enjoying all the hobby stuff I've got done, just worked out how to use a new airbrush for much better results...) The only thing that concerns me is if the virus is not fully reduced, there's the potential to re-spread it and we go through all this rubbish once more... Huey is levelling the playing field and has cursed all of Victoria, metro and regional.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 5:45pm

Realistically, the virus won't be fully overcome for a long time to come yet. Even with a vaccine it won't mean the virus has been overcome; people will still get it, some with little impact to them, some with mild to strong impact, some with fatal impact. That's how viruses work and no vaccine will be full-proof. Perhaps only genuine hope is the virus dies out like the spanish flu eventually did 100 years ago.

Which to the above, I'm really interested what plan B is to learn to live with the virus, as it sure as shit can't be bouncing between stage 2-4 every few weeks for years to come.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 6:35pm

Plan B is probably try to open up, swat it where it appears with contact tracers and powers to stop its spread when found, and block channels of transmission - assuming Plan A is to lock down until eradicated. Learning to live with it is about doing this really well and until vaccine, physically blocking contact works. Melbourne's numbers are falling, and within weeks should be at low levels enough to try this.
Other states have managed to get infections down to levels where this approach can contain it (be careful NSW).
Also heads up to G-Town, numbers are rising...

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 8:44pm

Yep I reckon you’re right with your plan B there, good summary.

Also I missed your initial comment about doing it tough down the coast due to medical reasons - hope all good with the family mate. Stay safe

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 10:56am

Bring Benny back, he always provides on cue after handover, just take a long weekend off or something Craig ;)

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 11:23am

Like a lake today, anyone keen for waterskiing or wakeboarding!

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 12:38pm

Anglesea never picks up much swell. It's twice as big 15km up the coast. We got 6 inch sets.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Nolan's picture
Nolan's picture
Nolan commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 12:44pm

I can't see any decent swell energy on the synoptics until next Friday - and even then it looks like it's coming with strong SSW winds suited only to B grade spots except for one of Vic's treasures near the Heads. That will be interesting, MP surfers not allowed to partake but Queenscliff locals (if there is such a thing) could have free reign. Maybe not quite up to the level of uncrowded Indo but the closest (in terms of proximity if not accessibility) we'll all get to it.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 1:08pm

If surfing is prohibited in the ‘metro’ area imo it wouldn’t matter where you live, it means no surfing on the MP.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 1:33pm

You're starting to sound like a broken record pal.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 1:43pm

Am I wrong? Nobodies saying otherwise and people keep asking the same questions

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 2:12pm

Under the rulings, yes you're not allowed to surf.

Would a cop fine you? Who knows - it would actually be hilarious to see someone within their 5km zone get fined for surfing. It's incredibly safe. You should see some of the stupid activities people are doing here at their local parks, under the guise of exercise...Also, jogging with out a mask - hah! puffing and panting down a path, passing within arms length of people.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 2:44pm

It really should not have been banned, let's be honest. To your point about jogging, that's spot on. Heck even walking around your local park is safer in terms of viral spread compared to jogging, I imagine the Tan running track is a dangerous place to be if you're able to catch covid out in the open air (which I don't think you really can provided you keep your distance).

Maybe surf ban done purely to limit people trying to run the gauntlet and travelling down for a surf. You can't even take the SUP out in the bay, but again everyone can jog along the foreshore walking track without a mask, and that's a narrow track!

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 2:52pm

Agreed, it’s shithouse and I want to see it allowed for those within 5km too (which I’m not btw, best I could hope for would be a 40kn northerly and bay waves!). Don’t think the gov is in any mood for granting exemptions at this point though

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 4:24pm

Yep i think it’s to stop temptation for those further away, i rang dhhs just to check and it’s banned as it is classed as a form of recreational exercise weirdly lumped in with passive activities such as golf, interesting that cycling is not classed the same, there’s still dickheads in lycra everywhere I drive

mysto83's picture
mysto83's picture
mysto83 commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 6:23pm

Probably to stop maskless groms and locals congregating in car parks and not exercising social distancing which I've sadly witnessed.

Nolan's picture
Nolan's picture
Nolan commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 3:46pm

My original post was not testing interpretation of current rules which is:
1) Members of "Regional areas" not allowed to enter Metro Melb without valid cause
2) Members of Metro Melb are covered by stage 4 restrictions which the Premier is on record as stating no surfing allowed
3) Members of the Bellarine Penn are covered by stage 3 restrictions which means you can travel up to 5km from your principal place of residence for exercise.

Without being clever and interpreting these consistent with their intent:
> The spot in question is not on the MP (boundary for MP is the high tide line) and any person accessing it by water could do so without getting within 300m of any MP residents;
> Queenscliff residents would not need to enter MP to access said spot
> Queenscliff residents could arguably be within 5km of principle place of residence when surfing said spot.

I can't see how a Queenscliff resident could get fined for surfing thsi spot but I could see a MP resident copping a fine for doing so.

Ironic.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 4:20pm

So any spot on the MP is accessible then. Boat on over boys and gals

I am the bone

Nolan's picture
Nolan's picture
Nolan commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 4:30pm

I'm just pointing out the irony of the rules Nick. And since you asked, no, said spot is the only legit spot within 5km of Queenscliff.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 4:56pm

Ahhh 5km thing. I didn’t think that applied to stage 3.

I am the bone

mysto83's picture
mysto83's picture
mysto83 commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 6:51pm

Not really in spirit of things though is it.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 8:31pm

Swell or no swell its going to be last drinks for greater Gtown.
"So stack the fridge and stoke the bong were staying home tonight "

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 3:13pm

I think Surfing Vic has an article on their site about surfing on the MP. I'd cut and paste it but can't do high tech stuff like that. Need anything heavy lifted though and I'm your guy.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 13 Aug 2020 at 7:53pm

As Clint Eastwood famously said, Stylemaster, "A mans gotta know his limitations".

.....think he then shot and killed someone.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Friday, 14 Aug 2020 at 6:04am

Few peanuts using their job work permit to travel from who knows where to go surfing on the southern end of the peninsula, mainly tradie covid try hard kook dogs, parking there cars down dirt roads that they have never parked at before, thinking they're hiding out at spots that they would normally not bother surfing. I think if you choose to surf but choose to live no where near the surf, for the moment with this life threatening virus not under control you need to just suck it up and stay home.

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Friday, 14 Aug 2020 at 7:39am

Ha Middle ave was a car park when I dropped through must think they’re waaay out in an unknown backstreet.... i was there for work of course