Craig

Down, down, down

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 10th August)

Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow

Recap

Poor surfing conditions all weekend on the coast with fresh onshore winds from the E/SE-SE and a mix of swells.

Today conditions remain poor and smaller on the Surf Coast, better to the east with 3-5ft of inconsistent SW groundswell and on the improve...

This week and weekend (Aug 11 - 16)

The run of gusty onshore and out of season east-southeast winds across the state over the weekend and into today were linked to a broad inland low drifting south-east across the country. The low moved offshore of the southern NSW coast on the weekend and deepened, but this is now moving off to the north-east and this will result in an improvement in winds and conditions tomorrow.

Unfortunately we'll be looking at smaller and fading surf, with easing inconsistent 2ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 3ft to possibly 4ft to the east but with a freshening N/NE breeze.

Over across Western Australia another mid-latitude low is extending from Exmouth to Tasmanian latitudes and this is putting a big block across our major swell windows.

The low will slowly move east this week while weakening, but behind it there are no major swell generating systems on the cards.

Another pair of mid-latitude systems moving through the Indian Ocean and towards WA are expected to split with the swell generating properties from this source being minimal.

So what we can expect is the surf to bottom out over the coming days as winds persist out of the north as the mid-latitude low edges in from the west.

Fresh N/NE breezes are due to persist Wednesday, easing in strength a little Thursday but we'll be looking at small to tiny waves even across the exposed beaches.

Local offshore tending N/NE winds are on the cards for Friday but with no change in the swell situation. We'll be relying on very inconsistent background swells from the Indian Ocean, and there's nothing significant on the cards from these areas.

The weekend isn't looking any better and winds will shift NW to SW in any case, writing off the open beaches. This will be as the weakened mid-latitude low moves across us but bringing no additional swell.

The models then diverge into Sunday and early next week regarding the possible deepening off the mid-latitude low across WA as it moves in from the west.

This could sit too far north to generate any decent westerly energy with winds from the north-western quadrant. More on this and the outlook into the end of the week on Wednesday and Friday.

Comments

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 12:51pm

Down down down indeed.....

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 1:11pm

Feels like a beautiful early spring day outside in the sunshine but only if you're out of the wind. I've noticed that the cherry blossoms etc are already in full bloom.......do they know something we don't? Very early spring perhaps, Craig?

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 1:51pm

Tea tree is flowering, snapper biting!

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

Tim.antonie's picture
Tim.antonie's picture
Tim.antonie commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 2:10pm

These forecasts are making it marginally easier to deal with the lock downs caused by Daniel Andrews and his teams unaccountable incompetence to not be able to get in my car by myself for a short drive to the back beaches for a surf has no logic - yet I can go for a run without a mask and run past scores of people on the walking track !!!

FreddyWaters's picture
FreddyWaters's picture
FreddyWaters commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 2:54pm

Still waiting for a winter swell, how long has it been? Help me to recollect... 3 weeks? 3 months? 3 years?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 3:06pm

Blocking highs lining up like planes waiting to land at Tullamarine.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 3:28pm

It's a fucked up situation. I'm this close to buying golf clubs. ooooh the humanity.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 6:04pm

That's OK VL, these desperate times require an equally desperate measure. You've just gotta be sure too draw the line with those knee-high socks, only collar shirts and taking your hat off in the clubhouse, otherwise you'll gradually become a pompous poser ;)

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 6:53pm

That's pretty serious VL... Perhaps try this instead, probably cheaper to begin with too:

https://mastertu.com/iron-crotch

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 6:56pm

Thanks for the link VJ. no longer looking to buy golf clubs.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

The Shaper's picture
The Shaper's picture
The Shaper commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 11:11am

thats Hillarious!! VJ.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Monday, 10 Aug 2020 at 8:58pm

I would've said lining up like grounded planes at Avalon....you seen the row of planes there? A good 30 odd or so neatly lined up.....at least they were there a month or so a go when I could drive past...might be gone now.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 7:22am

Not much size, but pretty colours this morning!



Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 9:58am

Almost frame that top one!

I am the bone

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 10:28am

Lorne cam seems to have amazing sunrises more often than not. Swellent team, is that the most scenic of the cams in Oz when you're going around the grounds in the morning?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 10:36am

Yep I reckon it is!

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 11:55am

Why is that? It always looks great...water looks clean and clear, sky always looks beautifully textured...is it the type of camera? Is it just the direction it faces?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 1:44pm

Just the angle of the coast at that particular location. Camera type is nothing special but the angle and placement also enhances things.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 2:52pm

Yup, prime example in those screen grabs. The timestamp is the same but while the Point cam is meh, the beach cam is Yeah!!

I am the bone

vicco11's picture
vicco11's picture
vicco11 commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 8:38am

One guy having an illegal surf at Rye this morning. Call the cops! ;)

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 11:54am

Shhhhhh!

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 1:39pm

Pumping and not a soul in sight

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 3:24pm

Not a soul in sight.....
apart from the one surfer at Portsea right now, on the cam, in plain sight.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 3:34pm

Blatant! Doesn't look worth potentially copping a $1,600 fine.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 3:50pm

I feel for the MP mob. They've been monumentally screwed by the Melbourne folks. In March, the Aspen dogs brought the virus back to Australia, knew they had it, and went to the MP and spread it all over the coast. These same absolute dogs were at Mt Buller the other day defying lockdown.
So after copping a hotspot in round 1, the MP got lumped in the stage 4 lockdown zone, despite having very few cases. I get the feeling this was done to prevent the same dogs heading back down to the coast again. No point heading to the beach if it's in stage 4.
So now the locals, who did the right thing, get punished again because of Melbourne's "elite" dogs who think rules simply don't apply to them.
Am I wrong?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 5:07pm

Are you turning into Blowin VL? China virus or Melbourne virus?

Even for someone who argues against racism you're still a xenophobe. Not much hope for us humans.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 5:08pm

Fuck those aspen kooks though

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 6:13pm

No carpertman, I'm not turning into blowin. I'm judging people by their actions not their race or religion. Maybe a little clumsy with my description but it was done so people could understand the type of person I was referring to.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 6:21pm

They type of person you're referring to is anyone from melbourne, right?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 6:24pm

No, just the dogs from Melbourne who knew they had Covid 19 and went down to the MP anyway. And the dogs from Melbourne who know they shouldn't be going to Buller, but do so anyway. I'm was not referring to all Melbournians, most of whom are very nice people.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 8:36pm

Ease up on the dogs mate, I love me dogs.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 5:07pm

Absolutely spot on, could they be the most hated group in Melbourne now?

gazzee's picture
gazzee's picture
gazzee commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 4:48pm

thinking we down on the peninsula where lumped in with melbourne metro stage 3 so the elite could still come down to there holiday homes and back again without permits. ,cant really put us in a different catagory now ,would make the whole zoning thing look like bullshit..as for the aspen crew read an article in the herald about mr stewart spouting off about how him and his aspen mates are now the future hope for a vaccine for covid and should be thanked..narcissism at its finest....

Gazzee

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 4:53pm

And off we go again!! Human v human..

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 5:05pm

Fuck it, that aspen crew get everything they deserve.

We have been royally fucked, no doubt about it. Barely a case a day...stage 4 for us. Geelong 10-20 cases a day and now deaths...stage 3. Our local economy is just collateral damage either because we were put in the too hard basket or there is something political going on in the background. The newly elected Labor Nepean MP has said/done fuck all too, can’t see him keeping his seat

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 6:10pm

geek, I reckon you got done over because it would take a shit load of police to police a stage 3 lockdown on the MP. It was pretty obvious from the march / April episode, Melbournians couldn't be trusted if the MP was still in stage 3. You'd get absolutely swamped by holiday home owners bringing the virus down if you weren't in stage 4.. While that's shit in the short term, it's probably a better option in the long run.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 9:16pm

VL they are already here. You should see the front beach in the mornings, lots of dogs and lots of people anybody with a beach house seems to be floating around down the Portsea end. Most people I have ever seen walking the back beach tracks as well in winter though all with masks (the very well to do are usually up the snow, Noosa or Byron - the locals in Indonesia). I suppose if you have to ride out a pandemic not a bad spot.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Tuesday, 11 Aug 2020 at 11:12pm

Indonesia would be a horrible country to be stuck in if the virus were to mutate and possibly become much worst. makes you wonder how people would act if the next virus was killing 3 or 4% of the population instead of 1

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 6:10am

No where near as many people as the first lock down.
Cant blame them really I would be doing the same thing if I was in their shoes.
As long as they stay put and don't travel back and forth.
Or get around like they think they're on a holiday.
It's funny that the ones who seem to be complaining the most about people coming down here are the ones who are staying in holiday homes them selves.
Thats annoying.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 7:14am

Yes this time there are far less people down here.
The first one was like it was Christmas holidays down here. Much quieter now.
Are you a permanent down here Memla, I seem to recall that you live further up the bay a bit?
Like you said though the vast majority of people you see out and about are wearing masks and being cautious. Much different attitude to the first one, from myself as well

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 7:25am

Apparently Dan has a holiday house in Blairgowrie! Go figure.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Wednesday, 12 Aug 2020 at 8:11am

and the problem with that is???