Increase in swell activity as winds go sour
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 3rd August)
Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, both coasts Monday, beaches Tuesday
Fun sized surf on the weekend with generally clean conditions across the Surf Coast and waves to 2-3ft Saturday, though easing back to 1-2ft yesterday. Selected locations to the east were clean under the N'ly breeze and biggest Saturday.
Today our new W/SW groundswell has filled in with clean conditions on the Surf Coast and surf to 3ft, bumpier to the east.
This week and weekend (Aug 4 - 9)
Looking at the coming days and there's not much change to the forecast on Friday, with a strong polar front projecting a great fetch of S/SW gales up through our southern swell window yesterday. This is associated with a strong cold outbreak and we'll see this cold moving in tomorrow.
Regarding snow potential, the system is too north to south aligned to generate any decent dumps with a few dustings across the alpine regions, while Tassie will cop the brunt of it as the low forms off its East Coast.
Swell potential though we'll see a large S/SW groundswell fill in tomorrow and conditions will be clean in protected spots through the morning with a gusty W/NW breeze. We should see waves to 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and the 8ft range on the Mornington Peninsula on the sets, and come late morning a strong SW change will create poor conditions.
The swell will ease through Wednesday with strong SW winds, and the power will also drop with weaker S/SW winds projected into us on the backside of the low. It'll still be somewhat sizey but easing from 4-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft or so to the east with the southerly direction.
Unfortunately the low off the Tassie coast will continue to influence winds through Bass Strait on Thursday with a fresh S'ly and further drop in size and energy.
Later in the day but more so Friday a moderate sized SW groundswell is due but a low that's currently over Western Australia way will move in from the north-west and stall inland, squeezing a strong high to our south-west.
Strong E/SE winds will kick from Friday through Sunday, spoiling Friday's and another swell for Sunday/Monday while kicking up some SE windswell.
These swells will be generated as a series of strong polar fronts move through our swell window on the bottom of the high.
The first is currently a strong polar low south-west of WA and we'll see this system project a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW to W/SW winds through our south-western swell window, weaker and out of the W/SW through our southern swell window before projecting up and under Tassie.
A secondary front following a similar path is expected to generate stronger severe-gales in our southern swell window, producing an additional S/SW groundswell.
The first SW groundswell is due later Thursday ahead of a peak Friday with 4-5ft sets on the Surf Coast and 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets to the east, easing into Saturday, with the secondary pulse of swell for Sunday afternoon looking to be maybe a touch smaller.
Winds don't really look to improve through early next week to much, swinging S/SW as the low pushes east and into the Tasman Sea. More on this Wednesday though.