Craig

Increase in swell activity as winds go sour

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 3rd August)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, both coasts Monday, beaches Tuesday

Recap

Fun sized surf on the weekend with generally clean conditions across the Surf Coast and waves to 2-3ft Saturday, though easing back to 1-2ft yesterday. Selected locations to the east were clean under the N'ly breeze and biggest Saturday.

Today our new W/SW groundswell has filled in with clean conditions on the Surf Coast and surf to 3ft, bumpier to the east.

This week and weekend (Aug 4 - 9)

Looking at the coming days and there's not much change to the forecast on Friday, with a strong polar front projecting a great fetch of S/SW gales up through our southern swell window yesterday. This is associated with a strong cold outbreak and we'll see this cold moving in tomorrow.

Regarding snow potential, the system is too north to south aligned to generate any decent dumps with a few dustings across the alpine regions, while Tassie will cop the brunt of it as the low forms off its East Coast.

Swell potential though we'll see a large S/SW groundswell fill in tomorrow and conditions will be clean in protected spots through the morning with a gusty W/NW breeze. We should see waves to 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and the 8ft range on the Mornington Peninsula on the sets, and come late morning a strong SW change will create poor conditions.

The swell will ease through Wednesday with strong SW winds, and the power will also drop with weaker S/SW winds projected into us on the backside of the low. It'll still be somewhat sizey but easing from 4-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft or so to the east with the southerly direction.

Unfortunately the low off the Tassie coast will continue to influence winds through Bass Strait on Thursday with a fresh S'ly and further drop in size and energy.

Later in the day but more so Friday a moderate sized SW groundswell is due but a low that's currently over Western Australia way will move in from the north-west and stall inland, squeezing a strong high to our south-west.

Strong E/SE winds will kick from Friday through Sunday, spoiling Friday's and another swell for Sunday/Monday while kicking up some SE windswell.

These swells will be generated as a series of strong polar fronts move through our swell window on the bottom of the high.

The first is currently a strong polar low south-west of WA and we'll see this system project a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW to W/SW winds through our south-western swell window, weaker and out of the W/SW through our southern swell window before projecting up and under Tassie.

A secondary front following a similar path is expected to generate stronger severe-gales in our southern swell window, producing an additional S/SW groundswell.

The first SW groundswell is due later Thursday ahead of a peak Friday with 4-5ft sets on the Surf Coast and 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets to the east, easing into Saturday, with the secondary pulse of swell for Sunday afternoon looking to be maybe a touch smaller.

Winds don't really look to improve through early next week to much, swinging S/SW as the low pushes east and into the Tasman Sea. More on this Wednesday though.

Comments

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 11:02am

Craig If you’ve got nothing good to say,, you know the rest...

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 11:33am

Craig is just being nice to those who live in Melbourne - really it's going to be pumping all week long, back to back swells, light to moderate offshore, swells of the year.........

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 12:13pm

Looks like Shorehams exempt from lockdown restrictions waxing up the goat boat now!

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 3:30pm

Craig probably should put a message at the top of the MP report, it’s is very clear surfing is banned. Afternoon report reads like you’re good to go?

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 3:57pm

Yep I second that call. Here is todays report/forecast but unfortunately you can't go surfing. It is confusing people. I really don't see the point of reports/forecasts at all for the next 6 weeks. It's just rubbing salt into the wounds.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

Nolan's picture
Nolan's picture
Nolan commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 4:32pm

If a tree falls in the woods but nobody is there to hear it does it make a sound?

I'm not confused by the report. I can still body surf or walk on the beach so the reports help with that without obviously being essential. If the PI report stays up it will be giving much the same info anyway. As a private business I think its Ben and the team's call on what they do. If you don't want to see it, don't look.

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 4:01pm

It is sad to say but under the new plague restrictions as of 2/2/20 SURFING IS BANNED on the M.P. :-( .

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 5:30pm

hmmm ,if one looks on the dhhhs website under exercise it makes no mention of surfing it only says you cannot go more than five kms from home for exercise so if u lucky enough to live within five ks from a beach with surf surely that means you can go surfing

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 5:38pm

Believe it or not it’s on the prohibited list for areas in stage 4. See sporting activities: https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1289795907186122752?s=20

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 8:57pm

Another interesting space will be the Stage 3 restrictions scheduled to kick in for regional Victoria from sparrows fart on Thursday morning.

At the moment, Mitchell Shire, which is located north of Melbourne for those interstate, is subject to Stage 3 restrictions. Curiously, the DHHS website (https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sport-and-exercise-mitchell-shire-covid-19) currently says that you are allowed to leave your home to go surfing in Mitchell Shire.

But here's the kicker:

"To help slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19), you cannot leave Mitchell Shire to exercise."

By extension, it appears that as of Thursday for the rest of regional Victoria you are only going to be allowed to surf within your own municipality.

Watch this space.....

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 6:07am

Its a little annoying when you look at the cases post code by post code, and you live a stones throw away from the surf and there are no active cases in your area and its illegal to go surfing.
Any way good time to enjoy the simple things in life.
https://covidlive.com.au/vic/postcode

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 7:16am

looking at those postcodes it sure loves a housing estate

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:26am

Thats what happens when everyone keeps mistaking their house for their neighbours house.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:03am

Jeeze yesterday you couldn't get a park at bird Rock or boobs because of the local crowd. Today being 6ft + and offshore winki, no one around. Don't even have to wear a mask to check the surf

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:33am

Happy days bro

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:35am

Noice, what was the general size?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:41am

I'd call it 4-5 ft with occasional bigger sets. Faces are clean but there's no quality to the swell. It's cut up and very raw. The empty car park isn't due to size scaring off people. It's got everything to do with the wonky waves, 3 degrees, and snow in the hinterland. Bambra is getting a dusting.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:57am

Thanks, on forecast. Seen some great photos of the snow around Lorne.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 9:20am

Hopefully that's the end of 2ft days with light winds and we get back to a proper winter. After this next onshore apocalypse....

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 9:04am

Apparent temp at Aireys Inlet is -4.9°C (air temps 2.3°C).

Don't think I've seen a coastal station that cold before.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 9:32am

Sun's out in Torquay but there's a really big storm down Airey's Inlet way. Looks like hail, driven sideways by 50km/h wind, is on the way. No complaints about crowds today!!!

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 9:45am

Just went for a run through the dunes on the southern end of the peninsula,
no crowds here, Hail, strong westerly, nice to see some winter action it's a wild wooly 8 to 10 ft, breaking along way out.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 10:02am

Checked the surf at dawn and again an hour later and while a land breeze made the conditions clean, like V.L said, the quality was shite. Only worth it if you're keen for some paddling fitness or wanna drive down the coast to some B/C grade protected spots.

Yep.......freezing, arctic conditions just the way we like it!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 12:37pm

Peeps be shackin still it seems

I am the bone

Mack Flanno's picture
Mack Flanno's picture
Mack Flanno commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 1:57pm

Where does it say you cant surf?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 2:13pm

I posted a twitter link above with the restrictions. MP falls under these rules

festa's picture
festa's picture
festa commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 2:17pm

Home / About Us/ News, Media & Publications / News & Media / Mornington Peninsula Shire - Beach Closure Update
Mornington Peninsula Shire - Beach Closure Update
Published on 02 April 2020

MPSLogo_News.jpg
Over the past week, the Mornington Peninsula Shire has continued to monitor beach activity following the beach closure announcement on Saturday 28 March. This decision was undertaken following a directive from the Victorian Government and Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) for the Council to do so in an effort to stop the spread of Coronavirus.

After assessing beach activity and leading discussions on closure restrictions with DELWP, Parks Victoria and individual Committees of Management, as well as other bay-side municipalities, the Shire has been able to achieve a broad alignment of our beach closure restrictions with those managed by other parties to avoid public confusion and establish a consistent approach.

While our beaches remain closed to restrict gatherings, people will be able to access Mornington Peninsula Shire managed beaches:

As a thoroughfare
For exercise – eg walking, running, swimming, surfing
For dog walking (on beaches that allow this activity)
Social distancing and mass gathering rules still apply.

Mornington Peninsula Shire Mayor Sam Hearn said this adjustment has been made to provide a consistent approach to beach closure restrictions in our municipality.

“The Victorian Government’s ‘Stay at Home’ message still applies for the safety of our whole community and beach access should be kept short and for exercise purposes only,” he said.

“While we recognise that our beaches need to be an asset supporting our physical and mental health over this time, I must stress that curbing the spread of Coronavirus remains a key focus and the message to residents remains the same, please don’t congregate on our beaches.”

Regular surveillance of the beaches by Victoria Police will be undertaken to ensure people don’t flout the gathering and social distancing rules.

Boat ramps remain closed for all non-essential activities such as recreational boating.

The Shire is monitoring the situation every day and will continue to seek advice from the State Government.

Tagged as:

Straight from the Shire website.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 2:21pm

That’s from April

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 4:00pm

haha

I am the bone

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 2:59pm

I don't want to be a negative Nelly, but I couldn't draw a more shit synoptic chart than the ones forecasted for the next 6 days. Howling SW turning to even stronger SE for the entire forecast period. That's truly shit for surf and bike riding, but on the plus side, Ringmaster will probably be scoring a century on the golf course next weekend.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

sparx.raymond's picture
sparx.raymond's picture
sparx.raymond commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:14pm

Cue "The Bone" with a cryptic update on the potential for the "Bukit" over the next few days

festa's picture
festa's picture
festa commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 3:20pm

True that, didn't even look at the date just got excited.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 5:05pm

Is it too much to ask for howling SE for 6 weeks to ease my mental stress of lockdown?

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:34pm

Kind of feel sorry for surf coast locals...pretty much the only winter in history where you'll be free from the Melbourne hoards....only it's one of the worst winters in memory since I've lived down here (about 8 years ish).

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 9:01pm

yeah, spewing for them, so spewing..... poor guys

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 8:13am

when the hoards come back they're gonna be hungry.....

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 7:36am

MP report..... No options for a wave today........ No shit. You do know there is no option for 6 weeks right.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 7:42am

You're wasting your time, mate. We explained why last time, and we've already explained why this time too.

Maybe direct your negativity towards something more beneficial?

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 7:54am

But different for the MP this time. Happy to point this out every report.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 7:59am

If it makes you feel better then go for it, but from this end don't expect anything to change.

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 8:12am

I see it as a community service. A lady travelled from Mont Albert to Shoreham on Monday. Maybe she read the surf report and wanted to have a look, who knows. On her departure she hit and killed a local girl riding her bike in Shoreham. I just think you should have a disclaimer in each MP report that surfing here is not allowed. It’s not too much to ask is it? If not I’m happy to point it out for our safety.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 8:26am

"Maybe...who knows?"

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 8:42am

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.heraldsun.com.au/leader/south-east/poli...

“One driver could be heard asking police officers if he was still able to “get to first reef” — a popular surfing break in Shoreham.”

People actually are this stupid Stu, a message like you had last lockdown could be helpful to a few

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 8:44am

Six weeks no surf sounds like a normal MP winter to me.