Fun weekend, average next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 19th June)
Best Days: Later tomorrow (desperate surfers on the exposed beaches through the morning), Sunday
Wednesday's large swell eased steadily through yesterday and further today, from a solid and clean 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula yesterday morning, 4ft or so on the Surf Coast (odd bigger bomb magnets), small to tiny today.
This weekend and next week (Jun 20 - 26)
Tomorrow will start slow with small to tiny surf due to continue across both regions. The models are showing a spike in size for the morning but this looks mainly too west to provide any size on the Surf Coast with stray 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Later in the afternoon though our new mix of W/SW and S/SW groundswells should fill in, the later providing the most size and best waves. This has been generated yesterday and this morning by a polar fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds south-west of Tasmania.
The swell should build late to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, with a peak Sunday morning to 3ft and 4-5ft+ respectively.
Winds will be moderate to fresh out of the N/NE tomorrow morning, but shift to the N/NW-NW into the afternoon, favouring the Surf Coast.
Come Sunday light morning N-N/NW winds will favour most locations, tending variable through the day ahead of weak sea breezes.
An onshore change due Monday looks to stall a little and we'll likely see a dawn W/NW'ly around the Surf Coast (onshore SW across the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island), tending W/SW through the day across all locations. Size wise the Surf Coast will be only small and to 2ft or so.
Tuesday will be poor as a broad and slow moving low that will sit west of us all weekend finally pushes east, opening up Bass Strait to poor and strong S/SE tending SE winds along with a low quality windswell.
The models are showing an increase in W/SW energy for Wednesday but this has been generated south-east of Madagascar and won't offer any decent size or consistency across the state. The Mornington Peninsula will be the only chance and winds look like they could linger from the SE, creating average conditions. Size wise I wouldn't expect much over a very infrequent 3ft across the Mornington Peninsula, easing Thursday as winds shift back offshore from the north.
As touched on in Wednesday's update, a strong mid-latitude frontal progression firing up over WA will bring some new W/SW groundswell for late in the week and more so the weekend. Whether the progression continues on and into us next weekend is still unsure and this will affect the end size and local winds, so have a check back here next week for the latest update on a dynamic week. Have a great weekend!