New swells from mid-week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 11th May)
Best Days: Beaches tomorrow morning though keep your expectations low, early Wednesday protected spots, Surf Coast Thursday, Surf Coast Friday and possibly the beaches into the afternoon
Slow and average waves Saturday with the swell tiny and clean on the Surf Coast, bumpy and bigger to the east.
Our new SW groundswell for yesterday came in strong with waves to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft sets on the swell magnets with workable conditions all day. Not perfect but fun and good for experienced surfers.
This morning is much cleaner and with easing sets from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, bumpy and 4-6ft to the east.
This week and weekend (May 12 - 19)
Yesterday's swell will continue to ease off in size and power tomorrow leaving smaller 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are looking a touch better for the exposed beaches now and strong from the N'th early-late morning, shifting N/NW through the day. It won't be ideal but fun for those with low expectations.
We then move onto the mix of building W/SW swells through Wednesday, easing slowly Thursday.
A distant frontal progression fired up west-southwest of WA on the weekend, generating a fetch of W/SW gales through our western swell window. The progression is currently weakening south of WA, with the weaker remnants due to move in and towards us today.
An inconsistent but moderate sized W/SW groundswell is due from this source Wednesday, while an additional mid-period SW swell is expected later Wednesday and Thursday from the remnants of the storm firing up south-west of us tomorrow. An additional fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds will be projected through our south-western swell window, weakening while crossing Tassie.
There's no real change to the expected size since Friday for the first pulse of inconsistent W/SW groundswell with sets to 3ft+ due on the Surf Coast Wednesday, 4-6ft to the east, possibly increasing a little further into the afternoon. Thursday should then see easing surf from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets though with a touch less power, 5-6ft to the east.
Unfortunately conditions Wednesday aren't too ideal with a dawn W'ly on the Surf Coast due to swing SW shortly thereafter, W/SW-SW from dawn everywhere else.
Thursday is now looking better owing to the secondary front pushing through Wednesday, swinging winds back to the W/NW through the morning, shifting SW into the afternoon but without much strength.
The swell will continue to ease into Friday in size and strength with favourable W/NW-NW winds through the morning, possibly becoming more variable and favourable for the exposed beaches into the afternoon. We'll confirm this Wednesday.
Moving into the weekend and a conveyer belt of relatively weak but persistent fronts should produce a small pulse of mid-period swell Saturday, but of greater importance is a stronger embedded storm moving in the progression.
The models diverge regarding the strength and alignment of this front, with EC not as good as GFS, so we'll keep our expectations tempered at this stage. Any swell is due to build Sunday as a surface trough moves through bringing onshore winds, likely better early next week, but check back Wednesday and Friday for more confidence regarding the coming swells.