Craig

New swells from mid-week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 11th May)

Best Days: Beaches tomorrow morning though keep your expectations low, early Wednesday protected spots, Surf Coast Thursday, Surf Coast Friday and possibly the beaches into the afternoon

Recap

Slow and average waves Saturday with the swell tiny and clean on the Surf Coast, bumpy and bigger to the east.

Our new SW groundswell for yesterday came in strong with waves to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft sets on the swell magnets with workable conditions all day. Not perfect but fun and good for experienced surfers.

This morning is much cleaner and with easing sets from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, bumpy and 4-6ft to the east.

This week and weekend (May 12 - 19)

Yesterday's swell will continue to ease off in size and power tomorrow leaving smaller 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are looking a touch better for the exposed beaches now and strong from the N'th early-late morning, shifting N/NW through the day. It won't be ideal but fun for those with low expectations.

We then move onto the mix of building W/SW swells through Wednesday, easing slowly Thursday.

A distant frontal progression fired up west-southwest of WA on the weekend, generating a fetch of W/SW gales through our western swell window. The progression is currently weakening south of WA, with the weaker remnants due to move in and towards us today.

An inconsistent but moderate sized W/SW groundswell is due from this source Wednesday, while an additional mid-period SW swell is expected later Wednesday and Thursday from the remnants of the storm firing up south-west of us tomorrow. An additional fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds will be projected through our south-western swell window, weakening while crossing Tassie.

There's no real change to the expected size since Friday for the first pulse of inconsistent W/SW groundswell with sets to 3ft+ due on the Surf Coast Wednesday, 4-6ft to the east, possibly increasing a little further into the afternoon. Thursday should then see easing surf from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets though with a touch less power, 5-6ft to the east.

Unfortunately conditions Wednesday aren't too ideal with a dawn W'ly on the Surf Coast due to swing SW shortly thereafter, W/SW-SW from dawn everywhere else.

Thursday is now looking better owing to the secondary front pushing through Wednesday, swinging winds back to the W/NW through the morning, shifting SW into the afternoon but without much strength.

The swell will continue to ease into Friday in size and strength with favourable W/NW-NW winds through the morning, possibly becoming more variable and favourable for the exposed beaches into the afternoon. We'll confirm this Wednesday.

Moving into the weekend and a conveyer belt of relatively weak but persistent fronts should produce a small pulse of mid-period swell Saturday, but of greater importance is a stronger embedded storm moving in the progression.

The models diverge regarding the strength and alignment of this front, with EC not as good as GFS, so we'll keep our expectations tempered at this stage. Any swell is due to build Sunday as a surface trough moves through bringing onshore winds, likely better early next week, but check back Wednesday and Friday for more confidence regarding the coming swells.

Comments

Age's picture
Age's picture
Age commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 12:36pm

“There’s no overnight stay, but if you want to drive to the beach to have a surf, or you want to go and visit family and friends you can do that,” Mr Andrews says.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 12:47pm

More importantly I can go fishing.
60 out at a well know spot this morning it was hard to get one In.
Definitely better than 6/10. Most crowded rdo surf I have had for a long time. It looked too good and had to be a sheep.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 1:24pm

In the same quote, add to that from DA: "We've never had limits on how far a person can travel. We've not closed our borders, not had internal borders and we're not changing that. The fact that people cannot stay overnight, I think, will limit how far they travel."

And there ends the great myth of Covid-19 that you can't travel for surf in VIC, as it's deemed as exercise.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 2:24pm

Looking forward for the locals to roll out the red carpet!

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 2:51pm

yep this was always the case. they 'encouraged' people to not drive more than 30 mins but unlike the other rules never legislated. If it takes an hour to your nearest beach and surfing is your exercise, this was always allowed. at least that was my understanding

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 3:00pm

There wasn't ever any specific guidance on travelling for surfing from the government, it was just based on the overwhelmingly clear messages around non-essential travel and staying local.

But I suppose they were expecting people to display common sense, consideration and respect for other communities outside the major urban centres to avoid risking spreading it, especially by asymptomatic types. Alas.

walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white commented Tuesday, 12 May 2020 at 8:54am

Except people have been fined for cruising down the GOR looking for surf.

Don't take me too seriously.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 2:42pm

Craig next week is looking too good to be true. Also our previous conversation about being able to surf everyday...it is almost possible this time of year as it was 6 out of 7 last week with real ground swell lines and a fun size, not that froth and bubble you get in Sydney!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 3:04pm

Very jealous, though not of the cold! Yeah mates have been letting me know how good it's been.

There's been non-stop waves here but ranging from 1-4ft, nothing amazing and from the south, which gets boring quick.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 3:32pm

Haha. And were back. Glad i got that screenshot in the last notes. Interesting to see where we end up

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 8:27pm

Memla what are you seeing in the forecast that I'm not?
Too good to be true?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 8:29pm

Lol it’s gone to shit again (for the east). Was too good to be true

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 8:31pm

But even Craigs forecast notes don't offer much joy

Thanos S's picture
Thanos S's picture
Thanos S commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 6:29pm

Agree McGusto, my understanding was, and is, that I'm permitted to solo drive 90 minutes if heading West to exercise and 105 minutes if I needed to exercise in an Easterly area. Thereabouts. Respect the locals. And all others for that matter.

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 7:17pm

Oh Happy days are here again!!!. I will be surfing twice a week for sure now and I have a new 8 foot board to celebrate .

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 11 May 2020 at 8:04pm

A47-D8-B49-C07-C-4876-8-C89-439-F213-A1-AC2

God bless sir

I am the bone

barbielunchboxer's picture
barbielunchboxer's picture
barbielunchboxer commented Tuesday, 12 May 2020 at 7:31pm

dbone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 13 May 2020 at 11:14am

Yeahhhh sangy

I am the bone

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Tuesday, 12 May 2020 at 12:31pm

Epic looking weather map, tropical lows still forming up in NSW with long waves troughs in the southern hemi, half way through may. apparently the weather use to be like this in the 70's and 80's. Maybe global warming does have a major impact on the weather. Maybe its a good thing that we have stopped burning jet and fossil fuels.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 12 May 2020 at 9:42pm

Today's crowd was out of control. It was packed for most of the day so the boy and I waited for high tide when the crowds typically ease. With 90 minutes of light left, we paddle out in inconsistent conditions with 10 in the water. There was no crew in the carpark getting changed.
30 minutes later, the masses came and 20 people all paddled out at once. WTF are these people thinking? We ended up paddling in because there were no waves bigger than 2 foot and they came in sets of one, 15 minutes apart. 30 people in a mostly flat ocean.
Before paddling out, do the fucking maths people. The vast majority of those people who all paddled out in a big group, got no waves. They also fucked up the surf for the ten people already in the water. Nobody won. And I don't doubt this was the second or third surf for many of the late comers.
Before paddling out, check the consistency, check the lineup, check how many people are getting suited up, and don't fuck it up for the crew already in the line up. What a shit show.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Tuesday, 12 May 2020 at 10:52pm

Probably just the after work crew? Or whatever else. Did the 10 people who were out complain when you paddled out? Did you say anything to the 20 people who paddled out all at once?

Either way, you're pissing head on into a gale force wind trying to educate people about over crowding on the surf coast. You've got plenty of crew from Melbourne, Geelong, Barwon/OG/Lonnie/Anglesea/Ballarat etc. all within striking distance. Best make peace with it and move on. Or move somewhere actually remote?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 13 May 2020 at 7:03am

“Pissing head on into a gale force wind.”

Sideways cry laughing emoji

I am the bone

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Tuesday, 12 May 2020 at 10:58pm

Hey VL, is your real name Karen?

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Tuesday, 12 May 2020 at 11:00pm

"Karen is a pejorative slang term that is used to typify a person perceived to be entitled or demanding beyond the scope of what is considered appropriate or necessary. One of the most common Karen stereotypes is that of a white middle-aged woman, typically from the Surf Coast, who displays aggressive behavior when she is obstructed from getting her way; such women are often depicted as demanding to "speak to the manager".

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 13 May 2020 at 8:01am

Like I said, we were the only ones getting changed in the car park and the crowd was manageable. I reckon it’s the big groups doing multiple session in a day who are the real Karens. I’m special. I’ve been surfing all day, fuck the crew already in the water, I’m getting a few more waves before dark with my four other mates.
Plus the Karens showed no commonsense. I didn’t see any surfer in 20 minutes get a wave by themselves. My aim for the surf was to show the young fella the lineup and get maybe a 2-3 little runners. End result. One tiny wave each. Fucking Karens everywhere, paddling for everything that moved, and I’m not talking about the original blokes in the lineup who were playing nice.
PS we need a male term for Karen. I suggest Newman. As in Sam “I want to play golf during a pandemic” Newman.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 13 May 2020 at 11:13am

I am the bone

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 13 May 2020 at 11:25am

Not sure the male "Karen" can be someone who delivers the mail. That's actually a useful public service.
The other Newman who cries about not being able to play golf while a pandemic crushes the world's economy and kills hundreds of thousands of people, really does tick the boxes.
Priorities Karen Newman. Priorities.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 13 May 2020 at 5:45pm

Someone has posted Dennis Nedry in a thread. Swellnet is now officially complete.