A weekend of two halves
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 8th May)
Best Days: Sunday protected spots, Monday Surf Coast, Wednesday morning Surf Coast
Recap
Our new and tricky pulse of SW groundswell yesterday morning came in across the Victorian coast just on forecast regarding peak expected wave heights, but it was very inconsistent and windy, making it not the most ideal swells. Infrequent 2-3ft waves were seen on the Surf Coast magnets, 4ft to occasionally 5ft to the east before easing through the day.
This morning the swell is gone and smaller W'ly swell is keeping the Surf Coast around 1ft to occasionally 2ft, 3ft or so to the east under N/NW winds.
This weekend and next week (May 9 - 17)
The weekend will be one of two halves.. as they generally are in any case.
Tomorrow looks small and average with the swell again being west and small, biggest across the Mornington Peninsula but poor with fresh W/NW shifting W-W/SW winds. The Surf Coast will struggle at 1-2ft tomorrow morning, though a front pushing into us through the afternoon will likely bring a late increase in short-range swell to 2ft or so.
Sunday looks much better with our new SW groundswell on track to deliver a good kick in size across all locations.
The low linked to this swell has formed south of WA, and a fetch of W/SW gales will be followed up by much better aligned fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds wrapping around the core of the slow moving low today. This will be through our south-western swell window with the low due to slowly weaken through tomorrow morning while dipping south-east.
The slow movement of the low and wind speeds should generate a moderate sized SW groundswell that's due to peak Sunday morning but hold most of the day. There's been a slight upgrade in size with the Surf Coast magnets now due to see 4-5ft sets, 6ft to occasionally 8ft to the east, easing slightly through the day.
Monday will then be smaller and fading from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively. Local winds will be best for protected spots on Sunday with a morning W/NW breeze, shifting W/SW later morning though remaining workable into the afternoon. Monday looks clean all day on the Surf Coast with a moderate NW breeze, easing into the afternoon.
A low point in swell is expected Tuesday morning ahead of a late increase in new W/SW swells, peaking Wednesday. Fresher N/NW winds will unfortunately create bumpy conditions on the Mornington Peninsula beaches Tuesday though, clean but small on the Surf Coast.
The source of this new W/SW swell will be frontal progression firing up west-southwest of WA on the weekend, projecting a fetch of W/SW gales through our medium-range swell window. The front will weaken when pushing under WA resulting in a small to moderate sized and inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Wednesday.
The Surf Coast will be slow but around 3ft on the sets, 4-5ft+ to the east and a surface trough moving in from the west looks to bring a S'ly change, though preceded by W/NW winds in the morning. Thursday looks average as the swell eases with S/SE breezes, but we'll have a closer look at this Monday.
Longer term there's nothing too significant on the cards for the rest of the week as a high moves in behind Wednesday's change, but into the weekend and beyond, it looks like we'll see the Southern Ocean becoming active south-west of WA. More on this Monday, have a great weekend!
Comments
What a difference 6 hours makes.
Is that how often those models update?
Yeah 6hr updates, 4x a day.
From an epic to putrid forecast in 6 hours. Classic MP :-(
Trends are your friends. If a fleeting offshore is showing and not consistent between updates, don't get your hopes up.
Not your time of year nick. Was just a dud summer for n easterlies wasn’t it..
Oh no. Im well aware we’re at in seasons. Just having a lol at the wild swing ya know. 5 knot offshore to 26 knot west is hardly subtle haha
TQ's pretty popular even though there's hardly any surf.
Hey Nicky Bone, are you best mates with one C.Jaski...and an accomplished guitarist..and someone I haven't seen or jammed with since 1990??
Someone got bitten by a shark this arvo in the Bells area. The guy is okay.
Baby shark Doo doo doo doo doo doo
Wow comes up close behind them at 15s.
Interesting to clearly see that it went for the weakest paddler, year's of evolution sure has created a very cleaver fish. Luckily for that bloke, it was a small one and only having a little look/sniff. Still, I'm sure if it had hit him in full-attack mode, he'd probably have no chance though.
Check this one out.....Fark that!
I heard he got bit and the bloke is from Reunion.
What are the chances?
Maybe reunion islanders have a scent that they like and the Island itself is not the problem?
Someone investigate while I organise a post-covid trip to St leu :)
Yeah. I remember Reunion had some big issues with Shark attacks a while back. I think it stopped a Pro Event too.
Found this Tracks article about it.
https://www.tracksmag.com.au/news/the-sharks-of-reunion-485665
How's the lull? Poor buggers got to puddle all the way in.
I reckon Victoria's last four shark attacks have all been between Winki and Southside. Fucking dangerous I say. Best stick to watching footy rather than risking your lives surfing in those shark infested waters.
Little white?
Not taking away from the poor bloke nearly getting chomped, but the local Geelong Addy said Matt and his mates regularly travel from Melbourne to surf around Torquay. Well here is the proof of why the crowds are horrendous around the coast right now. Everyone is traveling well outside of their local community surf in breach of current Coronavirus laws. If it’s happening here, it’s happening every where in Australia. So much for us fortunate enough to live near the coast and trying to do the right (legal) thing. Obviously the majority of people are paying no attention to Swellnets advice about traveling to surf
yes agree totally natjon651 " happening even in south gippsland
They are paying no attention to the theme of the advice. We won't know for a couple of weeks how far the meatworks infection gets into Melbourne's western suburbs - or beyond. However, no further infections reported on the coast or in Geelong for 3 weeks now, so we can almost be confident we're on top of it here - and we're getting there state wide, especially if this latest outbreak can get traced and stopped well. We're almost there at the point where life can get back to what it was, almost! I'm predicting less in the water after lockdown, lol.
“ I'm predicting less in the water after lockdown”
I wouldn’t be too confident on that, working from home arrangements are here to stay. And regardless of what VL is saying I would think most Melb-based surfers are staying home. Crowds could get REALLY hectic post lockdown (until proper winter at least)
.5 to 1ft surf is really worth driving 100 plus ks for as well.
It's the same today. When I had a look earlier there's no shortage of people on a few of the reefs happy to paddle out and sit around to catch.....well......nothing basically.
The only chance of a quiet surf down Torquay way is if it's falling out of the sky and all the Melbourne pussies and groms can't get out. There, that should fire up some debate.
You should really reign in your toxic masculinity. Referring to surfers from out of your postcode as “ pussies “ is a guaranteed indicator of inhibited sexuality.
Is societal pressure getting between yourself and the penis you wish to fondle ?
If you know about the joy of surfing you that that the likelihood of a quiet surf started to disappear with the advent of paved roads. Pandemic or no pandemic. Who's surprised that many people won't stop travelling for a wave because a website spiel, government regulation or keyboard warrior spout off ? Mother nature kicks in when one species on the planet over dominates, the real concern is that why aren't we seeing this as a wake up call to the underlying issue - human over population. What's Greta Thunberg saying ?
"How dare you!"
I guess it's just another good thing about this virus. More surfers in the water=more food for the wildlife
Did you note the proximity of the fish to the fellow with what appears to be yellow wetsuit patch?
Wonder if that's the little 6ft one that came in for a look at me in 2016 at Juc, only 4 years more growed up...
Edit: yellow rail strip on surfer in black wetsuit? Or am I seeing a shading difference?
Seems wildly unlikely
A mate raised an interesting point about the "out of town surfers are increasing coronavirus risk" theory. If you travel 1 hr in your car, get out, surf, don't take a shit and don't buy a snack, get back in your car and go home, you haven't done anything more risky than the bloke who drives 5 mins to surf.
Really took the wind out of my sails
Kevchecksurf. Increased travel increasing the risk of virus spread is no theory. It's a reality. That guy driving two hours to surf is going to need to fill up his car more. That means he's going to be interacting with the shop assistant more. He will need to take a crap down the coast eventually. That means the cleaner needs to be out more. They are going to throw rubbish in a coastal bin eventually (which needs collecting more). The simple fact is, no matter how diligent people are, surfers aren't coming down to empty carparks and empty beaches. The more they travel the more likely they will come into contact with people from a different region. That's the reality.
And then you the groups coming down, completely ignoring social distancing and cramming lineups. The don't travel message is clear, and it's there for a reason.
Now that petrol is cheaper you can buy fuel in bulk take a Jerry can down the coast to reduce trips to the servo. There are no toilets in the middle of no where. Take your rubbish back home in garbage bags then drop of at designated dump points. Don't surf in groups and don't surf small peaks like bird rock. When supporting the caffe's that are doing there best to stay open keep at least 2 meters away from everyone and don't crowd out the shop
NorthWest South. Back in the real world, is that really what is happening with surf trips out of Melbourne? I've seen shit load of cars with multiple blowins in the carparks, but fuck all jerrycans.
Going back 20 years ago in the real world, if your from Melbourne don't don't come to Torquay and surf advanced waves. There are 2 Beach's to go to in summer that are perfect for learner's, Torquay back beach and Jan juc. If your one of the more advanced surfers who unfortunately had to move to the city for work your extremely selfish if you think it's ok to leave any city to surf a CROWDED break right now. This is why surfing is a joke now days! Keep driving down the highway spread out and surf on your own . Maybe if we are lucky we can go back to surfing winkipop with 50 blokes by september. More police around in Torquay this weekend, there is a patrol car I've never seen hanging around. I'm hoping he is apart of the corona virus taskforce that was put together. Vicco is the only state with a dedicated force policing the new laws
So as I've suspected all along. The 'don't travel to surf' calls from local yokels is all about wanting a clear lineup rather than a community clear of Covid infections.
Mate , Victoria was the worst state In Australia to be a surfer long before the Wuflu Nazis started getting knots in their panties and dobbing to the pigs .
PS...No offence intended to those Vicco Legends , this is just a shallow jab at your resident pussy.....Vic Local.
Clear community in my case, always has been. Australia is doing well, hopefully can stay that way as restrictions get eased. And local community is going well with no virus cases for a while.
Also: crowds have been higher, whether or not 'don't travel to surf' was observed. Anecdotally, many newer learners/intermediates out. Spots you wouldn't think have surfers bothering, have had a pack. Main Juc peak is where school went, many, many groms. Fishos carpark overflowing in last swell event. Empty lineups, that isn't really happening.
And good on you WS, if you did your part in all this. Thank you.
Yeah, I get it VJ, just think people like yourself may be in the minority.
Anyway, 3 more days and I hit two months without a surf. Yay me.
In fact you just made me think, I better check the zip on my board cover hasn't seized.
Ha! Me too, my cat’s travelled further than I have!
Better not see any Surf Coast stickers when our wave pool opens again.
That silicon spray stuff can be a godsend. You can have a wave any day, if I know you are the one out with me. That said, I've been avoiding crowds like the clap for the few sessions I've gone back out (when I judged it to be safer based on community transmission levels) and they've been woeful quality, "diamond in the rough" kind of sessions.
Depends - are you infected? How close were you in the lineup?
Excellent point !! If you must travel to surf, respect the locals, keep at least 1.5 metres distance in the water as per land.
Virus or no virus go find somewhere to surf on you're own or don't surf at all. Spread the fuck out. Still plenty of heavy waves to find on the east and west coast
i reckon anyone surfing around the torquay reefs at the moment complaining about crowds is probably 30 years late. and i reckon anyone with a family tree of residents dating less than 250 years claiming the coast as theirs needs a history lesson.
Are we still having this debate? Clearly what ever we have been doing, it’s been working.
Come Monday we will be a step closer to the new normal.
What are we going to argue about when restrictions are eased?
Back to the more interesting topic of that shark, when you watch it closely, how much attention does it give to the third bloke to join the video & it looks like he is oblivious to it being right behind him.
Oh, finally, if that bloke was from Melbourne and doesn’t get a fine, it settles the debate about can people travel for surf, with the answer being yes.
"Oh, finally, if that bloke was from Melbourne and doesn’t get a fine, it settles the debate about can people travel for surf, with the answer being yes."
It's not like you're going to be able to find out whether or not the Melbourne guy gets fined. He could get a fine and you'd be none the wiser. Talk about framing the debate to support your pro-travel agenda.
VL without realising it, your promoting the pro travel agenda - by making constant statements about Melbourne and Geelong Crew coming to town for a wave.
The facts clearly show that Surfcoast cases have not gone up, therefore no community based transmission from so called travelling surfers - this would support the case that it's okay to travel for exercise, as per the rules ;)
It's alright though VL, it's almost over and u can get back in the water soon - I'm looking forward to you sharing all those waves you promised us.
Really Frodge. So when I was saying don't travel for surf, I was actually encouraging people to travel to surf.
With your twisted logic, does that mean billythekid was actually saying stay at home and don't spread the virus when he was telling everyone on this forum to go out and get Covid 19 as quickly as possible?
I thought you’d enjoy that one VL.
It was pretty crazy when billy made that comment.
Where is Billy when u need someone to back some out there logic.
I still want those waves u offered me though.
Isn’t Torquay an outer suburb of Geelong? Couple of k’s away yeah?
Third bloke is a local. Know him well. He went back out for a surf after the drama, shark came around for a sniff but left him alone. The shark is on VL's bandwagon, just going after Melbourne crew.
I trained it icandig. Wanted to have fricken lazer beams but nobody threw me a bone.
Yeah, those Melb crew smell funny. Might be the beard wax. Mix some in with your shark chum - give em a taste for it.
I'm picturing you training it VL - like Graeme Garden training his giant cod in "The Goodies"
The Goodies reference is showing your age VJ. RIP TBT. My woodwork teacher claimed to be Bill Oddie's half brother. He looked like him and was bloody funny, so he could have been telling the truth.
That's epic, how cool to have someone like Bill teach woodwork! And yes, RIP Tim, that was saddening. We made sure our kids were exposed to stuff like the bagpipe spider...
Did you feed your shark a gramophone?
and sent it up into space in a lighthouse power by North Sea crude oil.
My all time favourite was them mining for scones, cream and jam in Cornwall and then having the wild west showdown with tomato squirters
Cheers icandig ...Yes Frenchman Dylan, I think ! was a long way from home!
Check tonights TV news > (10) had a good wrap...
Surely the ABC will cash in on this and air The Goodies at 5.30pm followed by The Kenny Everett Show, then Dr Who and of course the news so all of us can catch it after kick to kick in the street?
So why is there so few shark attacks in Vic as opposed to NSW,SA and WA?
JESUS! Don't put the mozz on us Solitude.
Sorry mate, no mocka intended. Pretty sure you’ll be safe.
But seriously I wonder? What’s different?
Obviously PI’s reputation is notable but otherwise chances are bloody low
Sounded like some good size on the Surf Coast magnets today.
Small, shit, onshore, and crowded. Fucking cold too.
;)
Yeh mate, some solid 5-6ft rogues that I got conveniently....right on the head! I even resorted too a full bear hug on a few occasions but gee's it was bloody hard work. Raw, wonky and unpredictable this morning and still very difficult this arvo.
Still nice to get a decent flogging though ;)
There was.. and surprisingly not to many on it..and a fair bit of bird activity out wide.
Waves well worth the paddle right up till dark. Arm's done by darkness anyway as quite the paddle back to the line up through a fair bit of water moving around. Possibly tomorrow or soon enough, restrictions ease, tipping a slight reduction in numbers too; reckon the surfers that have obeyed the law will travel hit the waves but those that have to go back to work or other activities will have less time to surf.
I’m ready to bust out. Just need to remember to pack the Torquay Tigers towel and leave the Sainters one at home just to play it safe.