Craig

It's the beaches time to shine

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 11th March)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday until late afternoon, Monday morning selected beaches, Tuesday, Wednesday morning

Recap

Another average day of waves yesterday with the swell easing further in size along with onshore winds. Locations east of Melbourne did clean up into the mid-late morning for the desperate.

Today there's been a slight uptick in swell energy with a mix of inconsistent long-range SW groundswell and mid-period S/SW swell, coming in at 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft on the sets across the Surf Coast along with improving conditions.

This week and weekend (Mar 12 - 15)

We've got better waves to finish off the week for both coasts, with our secondary pulse of slightly better SW groundswell for tomorrow morning due to provide a touch more size under persistent and fresh offshore N/NE winds.

The Surf Coast should see 2ft to possibly 3ft sets on the magnets, easing into the afternoon with 4ft+ sets to the east, also easing into the afternoon.

While a temporary low point in swell is due dawn Friday, a new inconsistent SW groundswell should build through the morning and peak into the afternoon. This has been generated by a good polar fetch of severe-gale W/NW-W/SW winds in our far swell window, just east of Heard Island.

This will result in an inconsistent swell, with long waits for the biggest sets, but the Surf Coast should build to 3-4ft on the magnets into the afternoon and 6ft on the sets to the east.

The great thing is the local winds and they look to hold fresh out of the N-N/NE all morning and into the early afternoon, giving way to a late afternoon and strong S'ly change. So this should provide plenty of options across the beaches as the swell builds through the day.

Make the most of the coming two days as the weekend will unfortunately be poor.

Saturday will be write-off with strong S/SE winds and a mix of easing groundswell and new windswell, moderate in size but with no quality.

Winds should ease off later in the day though remain fresh and out of the SE, with Sunday seeing a mix of easing windswell and further drop in groundswell with unfavourable and fresh SE winds (possibly E/SE for a period on the beaches east of Melbourne through the morning).

Next week onwards (Mar 16 onwards)

As we move into next week we should see winds improve for the beaches, swinging around to the E/SE-E on Monday and better Tuesday out of the N/NE along with a mix of new SW swells.

A persistent progression of not overly strong polar fronts should generate some consistent mid-period energy for Monday morning, while a stronger low generating pre-frontal W/NW gales looks to generate a better groundswell into the afternoon, with both easing Tuesday.

The models are convergent regarding this secondary strong low, with a kick in size into the afternoon Monday likely to reach 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. With Tuesday seeing the cleanest conditions, the swell will be on the way out with excellent surf likely on the exposed beaches.

Longer term the surf will fade through the rest of the week with favourable morning winds, but more on this Friday.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 11 Mar 2020 at 9:31am

What a theoretically* good Friday. Surf all morning and lunch with the offshore than first sip of the stub as I head off too wedding as the change comes through.

*sand/tides align

I am the bone

CRS's picture
CRS's picture
CRS commented Wednesday, 11 Mar 2020 at 11:42am

Even if it’s your wedding !

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 11 Mar 2020 at 12:14pm

Beautiful lines and conditions..


hamishbro's picture
hamishbro's picture
hamishbro commented Wednesday, 11 Mar 2020 at 6:02pm

Stunning conditions on the open stretches today.

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Wednesday, 11 Mar 2020 at 8:13pm

Best time of the year for sure.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 12 Mar 2020 at 5:26pm

Except for daylight savings dragging on a month too long. Don’t have enough light before or after work!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 13 Mar 2020 at 6:08am

Uhhhh what?

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 13 Mar 2020 at 6:20am

17 hr work days?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Friday, 13 Mar 2020 at 7:52am

Pretty much. Leaving at 7 in the morn, getting home at 7 at night. With a 20min drive to the beaches don’t leave much water time right now! Would be nice to have an extra hour in the morning

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 13 Mar 2020 at 9:49am

That’s rough. So as soon as daylight savings finishes you’ve pretty much got no chance of surfing after work until it stars again in October or whenever it is?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Friday, 13 Mar 2020 at 11:40am

I do project work so it ebbs and flows and get a bit of wfh. Summer is my time though so the shitty last few months have hit hard

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 12 Mar 2020 at 2:27pm

Very enthusiastic at Torquay this arvo.

Nice peak at Portsea!

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Thursday, 12 Mar 2020 at 2:39pm

what's the reasoning behind the new lorne beach and fair haven surfcams. In my opinion these are redundant as they bad indicators of size of swell for the rest of the coast and are both closeouts 99% of the year so if you were trying to compare swell to swell using the cam the information wouldn't be useful

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 12 Mar 2020 at 2:57pm

Fairhaven is a great size indicator.

Lorne beach was fantastic when I was there a few weeks ago.. the banks were way better than the point. The reason for the second camera at Lorne is that we now have enough bandwidth at each site for more than one cam, and I'd prefer to have one on the point the whole time (rather than spending half the time looking at the beach). 

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Thursday, 12 Mar 2020 at 7:29pm

It is looking good for a paddle tomorrow on the Mornington Peninsula.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 13 Mar 2020 at 9:51am

What’s the deal with you always doing this?
Are you scared surfing by yourself? You need a few extra friends to share the stoke with?

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Thursday, 12 Mar 2020 at 9:09pm

Super fun on the beaches today