It's the beaches time to shine
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 11th March)
Best Days: Thursday, Friday until late afternoon, Monday morning selected beaches, Tuesday, Wednesday morning
Another average day of waves yesterday with the swell easing further in size along with onshore winds. Locations east of Melbourne did clean up into the mid-late morning for the desperate.
Today there's been a slight uptick in swell energy with a mix of inconsistent long-range SW groundswell and mid-period S/SW swell, coming in at 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft on the sets across the Surf Coast along with improving conditions.
This week and weekend (Mar 12 - 15)
We've got better waves to finish off the week for both coasts, with our secondary pulse of slightly better SW groundswell for tomorrow morning due to provide a touch more size under persistent and fresh offshore N/NE winds.
The Surf Coast should see 2ft to possibly 3ft sets on the magnets, easing into the afternoon with 4ft+ sets to the east, also easing into the afternoon.
While a temporary low point in swell is due dawn Friday, a new inconsistent SW groundswell should build through the morning and peak into the afternoon. This has been generated by a good polar fetch of severe-gale W/NW-W/SW winds in our far swell window, just east of Heard Island.
This will result in an inconsistent swell, with long waits for the biggest sets, but the Surf Coast should build to 3-4ft on the magnets into the afternoon and 6ft on the sets to the east.
The great thing is the local winds and they look to hold fresh out of the N-N/NE all morning and into the early afternoon, giving way to a late afternoon and strong S'ly change. So this should provide plenty of options across the beaches as the swell builds through the day.
Make the most of the coming two days as the weekend will unfortunately be poor.
Saturday will be write-off with strong S/SE winds and a mix of easing groundswell and new windswell, moderate in size but with no quality.
Winds should ease off later in the day though remain fresh and out of the SE, with Sunday seeing a mix of easing windswell and further drop in groundswell with unfavourable and fresh SE winds (possibly E/SE for a period on the beaches east of Melbourne through the morning).
Next week onwards (Mar 16 onwards)
As we move into next week we should see winds improve for the beaches, swinging around to the E/SE-E on Monday and better Tuesday out of the N/NE along with a mix of new SW swells.
A persistent progression of not overly strong polar fronts should generate some consistent mid-period energy for Monday morning, while a stronger low generating pre-frontal W/NW gales looks to generate a better groundswell into the afternoon, with both easing Tuesday.
The models are convergent regarding this secondary strong low, with a kick in size into the afternoon Monday likely to reach 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. With Tuesday seeing the cleanest conditions, the swell will be on the way out with excellent surf likely on the exposed beaches.
Longer term the surf will fade through the rest of the week with favourable morning winds, but more on this Friday.