Great weekend that's worth making the most of
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 28th February)
Best Days: Saturday, Sunday until mid-afternoon, Wednesday on the beaches, Thursday morning on the beaches
Great waves across the Surf Coast yesterday with the morning being the pick under a fresh offshore NW-W/NW breeze, shifting more W'ly into the afternoon.
Today our large and powerful SW groundswell is filling in, 5-6ft this morning on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions were clean on the face but wobbly and not as good as yesterday morning on the Surf Coast. The swell has since kicked to 8ft on the magnets across the Surf Coast and we should see 8ft+ sets to the east as winds shift moderate S/SW, fresher later.
This week and weekend (Feb 29 – Mar 6)
The weekend forecast is still on track with tomorrow looking excellent in protected spots as today's large SW groundswell eases under a light to moderate morning NW-W/NW breeze. Easing sets from 4-5ft+ are due on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds should hold until midday, then giving into afternoon S/SE sea breezes.
Moving into Sunday and our secondary large, long-period S/SW groundswell is still on track, with a secondary strong frontal system, on the back of the one linked to today's swell, currently firing up west-southwest of Tassie.
This system will be stronger but shorter lived than the one linked to today's swell, with a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds expected to be projected through our southern swell window.
The direction will be ideal for the Surf Coast, with the groundswell expected to arrive through Sunday morning and peak through the afternoon.
Size wise the Surf Coast should kick back to a large 6ft+ on the swell magnets through the afternoon (5-6ft most other breaks), smaller in the morning with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds are now looking more favourable for a wider variety of locations with a light morning N/NE breeze, shifting more NE ahead of a late afternoon SW change. This won't be ideal for the Surf Coast reefs so you'll have to think outside the square.
Late Sunday's change will be associated with a trough and then high moving in from the west, bringing poor and onshore S'ly winds (fresh) on Monday as the S/SW groundswell eases. Therefore make the most of the weekend.
Unfortunately Tuesday will see winds still onshore out of the S'th, shifting S/SE through the day with the morning seeing a further drop in S/SW swell. Into the afternoon though a new S/SW groundswell is expected, generated by broad but relatively weak polar front firing up south-west of Tassie Sunday, moving through our swell window until Monday.
The swell from this system will be mid-period, arriving later Tuesday and peaking Wednesday morning to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east.
We should see winds finally improve on Wednesday, swinging E/NE-NE through the morning, favouring the beaches ahead of sea breezes. Thursday will see the swell easing under an E/NE breeze, with the surf bottoming out Friday.
Longer term it looks like we'll see a return to easterly winds and windswells as the strong and stubborn high moving in next week is squeezed by instability off the East Coast and in the Tasman Sea.
All the more motivation to make the most of the current conditions! Have a great weekend!